| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 76 | — | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 16 | -9.6% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 32 | 2.9% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 35 | 4.6x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 63 | 1.02% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 38 | 2.9% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 70 | 3 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
TransAlta Corporation is an electricity generation company that operates a diversified portfolio of hydroelectric, wind, solar, storage, and thermal generation assets across three countries. The company combines contracted cash flows with merchant exposure to electricity prices, while hedging, asset optimization, and energy marketing support realized prices; in Q2 FY2026, it met part of its hedging obligations by purchasing electricity when the spot price fell below the variable cost of production and concentrated operation of its gas fleet during the highest-priced hours.
In Q2 FY2026, TransAlta recorded adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of C$291 million and free cash flow of C$143 million, or C$0.47 per share, with fleet availability of 90.2%. The hydroelectric segment generated C$87 million, down C$39 million year over year, and the wind and solar segment generated C$90 million, unchanged year over year, while the gas segment's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased by C$14 million, supported by optimization of the Alberta fleet and the contribution from the Far North acquisition; the call did not include quarterly revenue or net income figures.
For FY2025, revenue was $2.4 billion and gross profit was $1.4 billion, but the net result shifted to a loss of $158 million and a loss per share of $0.64, compared with revenue of $2.8 billion, net income of $239 million, and earnings per share of $0.59 in FY2024. Revenue also declined from $3.4 billion in FY2023 to $2.8 billion in FY2024 and then to $2.4 billion in FY2025, illustrating that the strong cash flow in Q2 FY2026 came amid a weaker annual financial base than its previous peak.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” but the average, highest, and lowest targets are identical at $25, meaning the provided data show no dispersion among estimates, and this target is approximately 40% above the 52-week range high of $17.88. No meaningful price-to-earnings ratio is available given the loss per share of $0.64 in FY2025, so the company's valuation rests on cash flow, hedging, and growth in contracted assets, weighed against weak Alberta prices, S&P's negative outlook, and execution risks for growth projects.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
In Q2 FY2026, the average spot price in Alberta was approximately C$29 per megawatt-hour, down from $40 in the corresponding period. TransAlta covered approximately 2.4 thousand gigawatt-hours with hedges at an average of $63 and also purchased electricity to fulfill some hedging obligations when prices were below the variable cost of production. As a result of hedging and optimizing operating hours, the gas fleet realized a price of $68 per megawatt-hour, and the company recorded free cash flow of C$143 million.
The first phase received a load allocation of 230 megawatts, and TransAlta continues to develop agreements with CPP Investments and Brookfield, according to the July 31, 2026 call. The company believes its gas-fired steam units can support AI loads because they are designed for capacity factors exceeding 90%, while their average utilization was approximately 20% in 2025 for economic reasons. The scale of further expansion remains dependent on AESO's decision regarding underutilized capacity, with the company currently focusing on the Keephills site.
TransAlta agreed to acquire two gas-fired peaking facilities for US$1 billion and linked the transaction to a C$350 million common share offering. The company expects an annual contribution of C$110 million to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, with a free cash flow yield of approximately 13%. The two assets are contracted with investment-grade counterparties for a weighted average term of 27 years, and the contracts include full pass-through of operating and maintenance costs, fuel, and capital expenditures, while closing is targeted for Q4 FY2026 after satisfying regulatory and operational conditions.
TransAlta is working to complete the Class 3 estimate by the end of 2026, with a final investment decision targeted for Q1 FY2027. The company estimates capital expenditure at approximately C$600 million and the build multiple at 5.5 times, and targets the start of service in Q4 FY2028. The decision remains subject to the company's required permits and WUTC approval for Puget Sound Energy, while the U.S. Department of Energy kept the unit available to operate when needed for 90 days under its third temporary order issued in June 2026.
No; revenue declined to $2.4 billion in FY2025 from $2.8 billion in FY2024 and $3.4 billion in FY2023. Gross profit fell to $1.4 billion from $1.8 billion in FY2024, and net income shifted from a profit of $239 million to a loss of $158 million. Earnings per share also shifted from $0.59 in FY2024 to a loss of $0.64 in FY2025.
The provided analyst consensus is “Buy,” and the low, average, and high targets are $25, compared with the 52-week range high of $17.88. Supporting the valuation are the FY2027 hedge book of 6.6 thousand gigawatt-hours at C$64 per megawatt-hour, along with expected earnings from the Colorado assets and the Keephills and Centralia projects. Conversely, no usable price-to-earnings ratio is available following the FY2025 loss, and S&P revised its outlook to negative in July 2026 amid weak Alberta prices and leverage pressures.
