| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 66 | 45.5x | 17.8x | Around median | |
Growth | 65 | 1.7% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 46 | 3.8% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 46 | 3.2x | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 51 | 4.07% | 2.12% | Around median | |
Momentum | 51 | 1.9% | 2.9% | Around median | |
Sentiment | 80 | 9 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Smurfit Westrock operates in integrated paper-based packaging solutions, combining paper mills with operations that convert paper into corrugated boxes and consumer packaging across North America, Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. Its revenue model is based on selling paper grades such as containerboard, SBS, CUK, and CRB, then converting a large share of production within its network into value-added packaging products; this ecosystem is supported by more than 30 innovation centers and more than 2,000 designers, while vertical integration provides converting operations with greater supply security.
In Q2 FY2026, the company recorded revenue of $8.0 billion and gross profit of $1.4 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 17.5%, net income of $89 million, and earnings per share of $0.17. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.14 billion at a margin of 14.2%, while trailing twelve-month FY2026 data show revenue of $31.3 billion, net income of $497 million, and earnings per share of approximately $0.94.
Operating performance varied by region in Q2 FY2026: corrugated box volumes in North America declined 4.8% on a same-day basis, compared with growth of 1.5% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, and Asia-Pacific, while volumes continued to grow in Latin America. At the same time, most of the paper mill system was nearly fully booked, and North America's margin rose from 13.3% in Q1 FY2026 to 14.8% in Q2 FY2026, despite freight and energy cost inflation.
The analyst consensus rates SW as a “Buy,” with an average target of $71.5 and a wide range of $50 to $170, while the average target is also above the 52-week high of $52.65. However, the absence of a published price-to-earnings ratio, with net income of only $497 million on trailing twelve-month revenue of $31.3 billion, makes the stock's valuation highly dependent on the realization of a margin recovery, while the substantial gap between the lowest and highest targets reveals high uncertainty about the scale of that recovery.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Smurfit Westrock recorded revenue of $8.0 billion and gross profit of $1.4 billion in Q2 FY2026. Net income was $89 million and earnings per share were $0.17. Adjusted EBITDA also reached $1.14 billion at a margin of 14.2%, despite higher freight and energy costs.
The company sells paper and also uses it within its box and packaging plants, so changes in the prices of containerboard, SBS, CUK, and CRB flow through the stages of its integrated system. European containerboard increased by €120 during Q2 FY2026 after declining by €20 in Q1, but passing the increase through to boxes may take one to six months. The company also announced an increase of $100 per ton in North America and €80 per ton for recycled paper in Europe, with the larger financial impact concentrated after FY2026.
Operating profitability improved, with the box business moving from substantial losses to a positive margin of between 3% and 4%, while the region's overall margin rose from 13.3% in Q1 to 14.8% in Q2 FY2026. The number of loss-making sites also declined from approximately 80 to around 20, and the quality metric improved by more than 25% since the beginning of FY2026. In contrast, box volumes declined 4.8% on a same-day basis, so continued improvement depends on converting customer wins and order books into actual volumes.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Management identified freight as the most significant pressure during FY2026, estimating an additional burden of approximately $300 million year over year due to fuel, transportation rates, and freight capacity availability. This is compounded by an estimated energy burden of approximately $220 million to $250 million, and the inflationary environment showed no clear signs of easing according to the call dated July 29, 2026. After accounting for these factors, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of between $4.9 billion and $5.1 billion for FY2026.
The FY2026 outlook does not include any impact from the new $100 per ton North American increase because implementation and pass-through through indices and contracts require time. Paper price increases also typically take one to six months to reach box operations, and the company aims to recover input costs and improve returns as this cycle is completed. The plan is also supported by nearly fully sold mills, a reduction in loss-making sites to around 20, and a capital expenditure program of between $2.4 billion and $2.5 billion in FY2026.
The average analyst price target is $71.5, compared with a high target of $170 and a low target of $50, with a consensus “Buy” rating. The average target is above the 52-week high of $52.65, while the annual range extends from $32.729 to $52.65. However, the wide target range reflects substantial differences in estimates of how price increases, freight costs, and North American margin improvement will affect future earnings.
