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Stocks
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall74
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 6/9SafeBetter than 74% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
26
36.7x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
88
60.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
78
31.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
84
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
36
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
51
88.0%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
39
6▲3Bottom tier
STRL

STRL Sterling Infrastructure, Inc.

Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
511.04
▲ ⁦+5.40%⁩ (+26.18)
Market Cap$14.9B
Beta1.89
52w Low52w High
266.131,005.68
Last Week
⁦+11.09%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.31%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-41.63%⁩
Last Year
⁦+83.48%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$511
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$742
⁦+45%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$510–$950⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$208
⁦-59%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.8⁩% discount · ⁦6⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$208–$742⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$731.20
⁦+43.1%⁩
Current Price $511.04·Median $742.00
Low
$510.00
High
$950.00
Current price
$511.04
Average target
$731.20
Street summary

Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) Price Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

STRL stock has seen strong positive momentum in analyst expectations over the past 30 days, with the average price target rising by 12.62% to reach $739, with most of this increase (7.35%) concentrated in the last week. This trend reflects optimism regarding financial performance growth, as estimates point to a jump in earnings per share from $18.73 in 2026 to $34.68 by 2029, supported by continued positive ratings from institutions such as Cantor Fitzgerald and KeyBanc.

As of 2026-08-12
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
8
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
86%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time8 analysts rating
8
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-05
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-06-18
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-06-02
    KeyBanc
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    36.74x
    5.69x45.54x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    25.09x
    4.57x36.58x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    22.43x
    3.43x27.47x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    3.1%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    60.8%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    50.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    23.8%
    8.6%54.6%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    31.6%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    7.44
    -5.667.97
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-04 data

Company Overview

Sterling Infrastructure operates through three main segments: E-Infrastructure Solutions, which performs site development and electrical work for mission-critical projects such as data centers, semiconductor campuses, and large-scale manufacturing; Transportation Solutions, which focuses on selected transportation projects; and Building Solutions, which is tied to homebuilder activity. The company’s strategy is based on shifting resources toward higher-margin E-Infrastructure projects, combining electrical and site development work on the same project, and expanding operating capacity through equipment, workforce, and additional acquisitions.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $1.2 billion, gross profit was $290.0 million, net income was $155.8 million, and earnings per share were $5.00, according to EDGAR data. On a year-over-year basis, management said revenue grew 90% and adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 116% from $2.69 to $5.80, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization more than doubled and its margin increased 150 basis points to 22%. The latest trailing-twelve-month figures show revenue of $3.4 billion, gross profit of $818.6 million, and net income of $431.5 million.

Most of the momentum came from E-Infrastructure, where revenue grew 192% and the adjusted operating margin reached 24%, driven by data centers and semiconductor campuses; CEC revenue also increased 140%, and Rocky Mountain business revenue rose about 700%. In contrast, Transportation Solutions revenue declined 20%, but its adjusted operating margin increased by more than 500 basis points to 19.5%, and adjusted operating income rose 8%, while Building Solutions revenue declined 1% and its adjusted operating margin was 9.9%. These figures reflect a strong shift in the business mix toward E-Infrastructure, rather than balanced growth across the three segments.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Contracted backlog reached $4.3 billion at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, up 116% year over year, and combined backlog reached $5.6 billion, up 150%; with future phase opportunities exceeding $1.4 billion, Sterling now has visibility into a pipeline exceeding $7 billion.
  • The total of contracted backlog, unsigned electrical awards, and future phase opportunities in E-Infrastructure exceeded $6 billion, an increase of $2.7 billion since the end of fiscal 2025. Data centers, large-scale manufacturing, and semiconductors accounted for more than 92% of contracted backlog in this segment, directly linking growth to spending on digital and mission-critical assets.
  • Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance to revenue of $4.0 billion to $4.15 billion, diluted earnings per share of $17.25 to $17.85, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $19.70 to $20.30. It also raised the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range to $891–$916 million, making the guidance midpoints equivalent to year-over-year growth of 64% in revenue, 84% in adjusted earnings per share, and 79% in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
  • The company expects E-Infrastructure revenue growth exceeding 100% in fiscal 2026, including CEC and Stone Ridge, and growth approaching 70% or more in the existing site development business, with an adjusted operating margin in the mid-twenties. In Q2 fiscal 2026, Sterling also secured the initial scope of work for an electric vehicle plant in Atlanta, while the semiconductor project in Northeast was ahead of schedule.
  • CEC added about $1.7 billion to its combined backlog since the end of fiscal 2025, bringing its combined balance to about $2.4 billion in June 2026. Management stated that CEC had begun winning buildings and subsequent phases at data center sites, and that Sterling was jointly performing site development and electrical work on three or four projects, supporting cross-selling and project scale.
  • Cash flow from operating activities was $328 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, and the company ended the quarter with $464 million in cash and $284 million in debt, representing net cash after debt of $181 million. It also expanded its revolving credit facility to $1.5 billion through July 2031 and raised capital expenditure guidance to $130–$140 million to expand its fleet and production capacity.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The combined backlog of $5.6 billion, future phase opportunities exceeding $1.4 billion, and a 1.4 times book-to-burn ratio for contracted backlog in Q2 fiscal 2026 provide strong revenue visibility despite the rapid pace of project execution.
  • +Sterling combines rapid growth with high profitability: revenue increased 90% and adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 116% in Q2 fiscal 2026, while the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 22% and the adjusted E-Infrastructure operating margin reached 24%.
  • +Combining site development and electrical work through CEC allows Sterling to expand its scope of work with the same client; the company was implementing this model on three or four projects, while CEC’s new bookings came from subsequent phases and buildings at existing data centers. Improvements in CEC’s project mix and prefabrication could support a 300–500 basis point margin expansion over 12–18 months, according to management.
  • +Net cash of $181 million, operating cash flow of $328 million in the first half of fiscal 2026, and the $1.5 billion revolving facility provide flexibility to finance the fleet, workforce, and additional acquisitions without currently relying on high net leverage.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average target of $731.20, but the dispersion is wide between a low target of $510 and a high target of $950. The average target is below the 52-week high of $1,005.68, and the high target itself is also below that peak, indicating that sustaining the strong valuation requires delivering the raised fiscal 2026 guidance and maintaining data center momentum. The context does not include a usable price-to-earnings multiple, so the valuation assessment is based on the target range, the 52-week range, and risks related to the business mix and execution capacity.

BuyAnalyst target: $731.2(+43.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove STRL’s growth in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Sterling’s revenue increased 90%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share rose 116% from $2.69 to $5.80 in Q2 fiscal 2026. The primary driver was E-Infrastructure, where revenue grew 192%, supported by data centers and semiconductor campuses. CEC revenue also grew 140%, and the Rocky Mountain business grew about 700% as resources were shifted from transportation to E-Infrastructure. The adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 22% after expanding 150 basis points year over year.

How large is Sterling Infrastructure’s backlog?

Contracted backlog reached $4.3 billion at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, up 116% from the comparable period. Combined backlog reached $5.6 billion, up 150%, while high-probability future phase opportunities exceeded $1.4 billion. Combining these sources, management said the visible pipeline exceeds $7 billion, an increase of more than $2.5 billion since the end of fiscal 2025. E-Infrastructure accounts for more than $6 billion of contracted backlog, unsigned electrical awards, and future phase opportunities.

What is Sterling’s guidance for fiscal 2026?

Management raised the fiscal 2026 revenue range to $4.0–$4.15 billion and diluted earnings per share to $17.25–$17.85. Adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance ranges from $19.70 to $20.30, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance ranges from $891 million to $916 million. The company expects E-Infrastructure revenue growth exceeding 100% and an adjusted operating margin in the mid-twenties. In contrast, it expects Transportation Solutions revenue to decline 7–10% and Building Solutions to decline slightly during fiscal 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Growth has become highly concentrated in mission-critical projects; data centers, large-scale manufacturing, and semiconductors accounted for more than 92% of contracted backlog in E-Infrastructure, a segment representing more than $6 billion of contracted backlog, awards, and future opportunities. Therefore, any slowdown in spending plans for these projects could have a disproportionate impact on Sterling’s growth trajectory.
  • −The company faces a genuine execution-capacity constraint, particularly in the availability of electricians; management said that capacity shortages prevented it from accepting additional opportunities and that adding 1,000 or 2,000 electricians would have allowed faster growth. Geographic expansion from Atlanta and Utah into different parts of Texas also requires local resources, equipment, and additional acquisitions, increasing execution risk during a period of rapid growth.
  • −Changes in the mix could pressure the E-Infrastructure margin even when its individual units improve, because CEC’s adjusted margin was about 12% in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with a margin in the high twenties for the site development business. Management acknowledged that faster-than-expected CEC growth mathematically lowers the combined margin, despite targeting a 300–500 basis point improvement in CEC’s margin over 12–18 months.
  • −Businesses outside E-Infrastructure remain weak: Transportation Solutions revenue declined 20% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and management expects it to decline 7–10% in fiscal 2026 as the current federal funding cycle ends in September 2026. Building Solutions revenue also declined 1%, and the company expects a slight decline throughout fiscal 2026 due to housing market headwinds.
  • −Management warned that differences between award timing and the pace of revenue execution could lead to a sequential decline in backlog during Q3 fiscal 2026, before stronger activity is expected in Q4 fiscal 2026 and early fiscal 2027. Even if this results from contract timing rather than a change in demand, these fluctuations could make quarterly booking indicators less stable and increase the sensitivity of expectations to any schedule slippage.
  • −The reference valuation range is notably wide: the 52-week range is $266.13 to $1,005.68, while analyst targets range from $510 to $950, with an average of $731.20. Even the highest target of $950 is below the 52-week high, highlighting the risk of a valuation reset if the company fails to deliver the expected E-Infrastructure growth or fiscal 2026 margins.
How do CEC and Stone Ridge affect Sterling’s growth?

CEC’s combined backlog reached about $2.4 billion in June 2026 after adding about $1.7 billion since the end of fiscal 2025. CEC revenue increased 140% in Q2 fiscal 2026, and the company had begun jointly performing electrical and site development work on three or four projects. Stone Ridge added about $140 million to contracted backlog and supports Sterling’s expansion in Pacific Northwest. The contributions from CEC and Stone Ridge are included in the expectation for E-Infrastructure revenue growth of more than 100% in fiscal 2026.

Could E-Infrastructure margins decline despite revenue growth?

Yes, because the revenue mix between site development and electrical work is fundamentally different. In Q2 fiscal 2026, the adjusted margin of the site development business was in the high twenties, while CEC’s margin was about 12%, so faster CEC growth mathematically lowers the combined margin. However, management said that the margins of the individual components improved and that a change in CEC’s project mix could add 300–500 basis points over 12–18 months. The company is targeting an adjusted operating margin in the mid-twenties for the E-Infrastructure segment in fiscal 2026.

What are the key operational risks to monitor for STRL?

The key risk is executing rapid growth amid a shortage of electricians and tight capacity in the site development business; management stated that adding 1,000 or 2,000 electricians would have enabled faster growth. Mission-critical projects also account for more than 92% of contracted backlog in E-Infrastructure, increasing reliance on data center, manufacturing, and semiconductor spending plans. The backlog balance could decline sequentially in Q3 fiscal 2026 due to differences between award timing and the pace of revenue execution. In addition, increasing capacity requires expected capital expenditures of $130–$140 million and additional acquisitions to support geographic expansion.