EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Steel Dynamics, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall85
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9SafeBetter than 85% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
56
21.7x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
53
19.8%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
50
12.3%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
77
1.4x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
48
0.86%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
86
99.6%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
81
9▲3Top tier
STLD

STLD Steel Dynamics, Inc.

Steel Dynamics, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
239.79
▲ ⁦+1.14%⁩ (+2.71)
Market Cap$34.0B
Beta1.53
52w Low52w High
129.41288.74
Last Week
⁦-3.17%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.06%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-10.64%⁩
Last Year
⁦+84.04%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$240
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$274
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$260–$300⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$63
⁦-74%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦11.2⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$63–$274⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$274.17
⁦+14.3%⁩
Current Price $239.79·Median $273.50
Low
$260.00
High
$300.00
Current price
$239.79
Average target
$274.17
Street summary

Stable Targets Despite a Slight Decline in Coverage

Price targets have not changed over the last 30 days; the consensus average remained at 274.17, and the median at 273.5, despite the number of analysts declining from 5 to 4 on the last day. At a current price of 237.08, the target range is between 260 and 300, reflecting an upward target direction relative to the current price, with a clear spread between the highest and lowest estimates, without any recent improvement or deterioration in the consensus itself.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.71
Buy
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
64%
Mixed
Target dispersion
17%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
2
7
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 3.71
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-10
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    21.72x
    4.94x39.51x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.14x
    3.70x29.59x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.20x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    2.8%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    19.8%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    60.9%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    14.7%
    7.6%58.9%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    12.3%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.42x
    0.22x3.72x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.9%
    0.2%5.5%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    18.6%
    4.7%147.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.96
    -11.4212.56
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-21 data

Company Overview

Steel Dynamics operates through an interconnected system that includes flat and long steel production, metals recycling, steel joist and deck fabrication, and an aluminum rolled-sheet platform. The company benefits from converting scrap into value-added metal products and from using its internal fabrication business to support steel mill utilization; in fiscal Q2 2026, the steel mills benefited from this system by achieving a utilization rate of 90%, compared with an estimated 81% for the domestic industry.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue was $6.1 billion, gross profit was $959.0 million with a gross margin of approximately 15.7%, net income was $534.1 million with a net margin of approximately 8.8%, and diluted earnings per share were $3.69. Operating income was $700 million and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $921 million, supported by record quarterly steel shipments of 3.7 million tons and a $105-per-ton increase in the average selling price.

Steel was the primary earnings driver in fiscal Q2 2026, generating operating income of $721 million, up 30% sequentially, while metals recycling generated $48 million and fabrication generated $85 million. In contrast, aluminum operations recorded an operating loss of $33 million during startup, in addition to a noncash impairment of $16 million, despite aluminum sheet shipments rising to 53 thousand metric tons from 22.5 thousand metric tons in fiscal Q1 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • 80% or more of the flat steel business is tied to contracts with an overall pricing lag of approximately two months, so management said on July 21, 2026, that steel price increases and improved value-added product spreads would support fiscal Q3 2026 results; the galvanized spread over hot-rolled coil also recovered from less than $100 to more than $220 per ton.
  • Steel shipments rose to a quarterly record of 3.7 million tons in fiscal Q2 2026, and Steel Dynamics' mills operated at 90% of capacity versus 81% for the domestic industry, alongside strong order books for flat and long products.
  • The steel fabrication backlog volume increased by more than 45% year over year through July 2026, and the increase was volume-related rather than price-related; management expects strong volumes in the second half of fiscal 2026 and into fiscal 2027, with pricing improvement beginning to emerge in fiscal Q4 2026 and becoming more apparent during fiscal 2027.
  • The aluminum mill produced 84 thousand metric tons in fiscal Q2 2026, equivalent to approximately 50% of its capacity, and shipments reached 53 thousand metric tons. Management is targeting an exit from fiscal 2026 at a monthly production rate of at least 90% of capacity, with annual nameplate capacity of 650 thousand metric tons and an expected transition to profitability in the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • The company secured qualification for 5182 and 5754 products with several automakers and was testing 6000-series alloys in July 2026. The third cold rolling mill began operating in July 2026, while the second continuous heat-treatment line was scheduled to begin operating in fiscal Q4 2026.
  • On August 24, 2026, trade tensions between the United States and Canada supported expectations that tariff protection for domestic producers would continue, after management had noted in July 2026 a 50% Section 232 tariff on imported steel; nevertheless, the impact of trade policy remains volatile and subject to change.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The steel platform provides a strong earnings base, generating $721 million in operating income in fiscal Q2 2026, supported by record shipments, a $105-per-ton increase in the average selling price, and improved coated-product spreads.
  • +The three organic investments in the Sinton mill, value-added coating lines, and the aluminum platform could add more than $1.4 billion in annual through-cycle earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization capacity, according to management estimates, including $650–700 million for the aluminum platform and an additional $40–50 million for metals recycling.
  • +Liquidity was $2.0 billion at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, including $800 million in cash and investments and an undrawn credit facility of $1.2 billion. The company also repurchased $350 million of shares in the first half of fiscal 2026 and had $489 million of repurchase authorization remaining at the end of June 2026.
  • +Steel Dynamics declared on August 14, 2026, a cash dividend of $0.53 per share for fiscal Q3 2026, payable on October 9, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 30, 2026, adding a cash return to the share repurchase program.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $274.17, within a range of $260 to $300, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average is approximately 5% below the 52-week range high of $288.74, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 3.9%, and the wide 52-week range between $126.88 and $288.74 indicates high sensitivity to the metals pricing cycle and execution of the aluminum expansion. The context does not provide a usable earnings multiple, so the stock's valuation here is based on the target range and the breadth of the 52-week range rather than inferring an unavailable multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $274.17(+14.3%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove STLD's fiscal Q2 2026 results?

Revenue was $6.1 billion, net income was $534.1 million, and diluted earnings per share were $3.69 in fiscal Q2 2026. The company achieved record steel shipments of 3.7 million tons, and the average selling price increased by $105 per ton. This raised operating income for the steel segment by 30% sequentially to $721 million, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $921 million.

When could the aluminum platform become a positive contributor to Steel Dynamics' earnings?

Management said on July 21, 2026, that it expects aluminum operations to become profitable in the second half of fiscal 2026. The mill operated at an average of approximately 50% in fiscal Q2 2026, while the June rate was closer to 60%, with a target monthly rate of at least 90% by the end of fiscal 2026. Annual nameplate capacity remains 650 thousand metric tons, and management estimates through-cycle earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $650–700 million after full operational maturity.

How important is the steel fabrication backlog to STLD stock?

The steel fabrication backlog volume increased by more than 45% year over year through July 2026, and management confirmed that the increase came from volume rather than prices. The business generated operating income of $85 million in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with $90 million in fiscal Q1 2026, because higher steel costs offset the effect of increased volume and stable prices. Management expected strong volumes in the second half of fiscal 2026, with realized pricing beginning to improve within six to nine months of the call date.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −The aluminum platform startup encountered tangible execution obstacles in fiscal Q2 2026; shipments were 53 thousand metric tons versus a previous range of 60–70 thousand metric tons, and the business recorded an operating loss of $33 million in addition to a noncash impairment of $16 million.
  • −Relocating the second recycled aluminum slab center delayed the availability of internal supply, and management expected it to reach full operation in the first half of fiscal 2027, with an incremental capital cost of $10–20 million at the Columbus site and additional logistics costs associated with transporting used beverage cans from the West Coast.
  • −Steel fabrication margins may come under pressure when input prices rise because the business typically holds enough steel inventory for 10–12 weeks; in fiscal Q2 2026, higher volume and stable prices offset the increase in steel costs, and operating income declined to $85 million from $90 million in fiscal Q1 2026.
  • −Steel pricing strength depends partly on trade protection, while management said that accelerating exports from three Asian countries were circumventing the Section 232 framework and causing short-term disruption. Any sustained increase in imports or weakening of protection in the USMCA review could pressure prices and metal spreads, even with the 50% tariff in July 2026.
  • −Aluminum operations face volatility related to geopolitical conflicts and domestic supply-chain challenges, while achieving the profitability target requires lower startup costs, improved utilization and yield, and higher scrap content. In July 2026, scrap content in beverage can sheet was approximately 80%, while the automotive product mix was approximately 40% primary P1020 metal and 60% scrap.
  • −A fatal accident occurred while work was being performed on equipment in April 2026 and claimed the life of a New Process Steel employee, highlighting the operational safety risks inherent in heavy industrial activities even as management affirmed its commitment to an incident-free environment.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 5, 2026, included four sales and no purchases, for net sales of $2.7 million. This is a weak signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data did not specify whether these transactions were.
What are the main risks of Steel Dynamics' aluminum expansion?

Aluminum operations recorded an operating loss of $33 million in fiscal Q2 2026, and the company also incurred a noncash impairment of $16 million due to relocating the second recycled slab center. Shipments were 53 thousand metric tons, below the previous range of 60–70 thousand metric tons, due to intermittent issues that included packaging and material that could not be shipped. The relocation also adds $10–20 million to capital spending in Columbus and delays full operation of internal supply until the first half of fiscal 2027.

How does Steel Dynamics return capital to shareholders?

The company repurchased $350 million of shares during the first half of fiscal 2026, with $489 million of authorization remaining at the end of June 2026. On August 14, 2026, it declared a dividend of $0.53 per share for fiscal Q3 2026, payable on October 9, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 30, 2026. This policy is supported by liquidity of $2 billion at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, but the pace of repurchases will remain tied to cash flow generation and working capital requirements.

What are the details of the announced leadership transition at Steel Dynamics?

According to the August 4, 2026, announcement, the board of directors unanimously approved the appointment of Theresa Wagler as chief executive officer effective January 1, 2027. On the same date, Mark Millett, the current chief executive officer and a co-founder, will transition. Until that date, Theresa Wagler was serving as executive vice president and chief financial officer during the July 21, 2026, call.