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Stocks
STAG Industrial, Inc.
STAG

STAG STAG Industrial, Inc.

STAG Industrial, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
37.14
▲ ⁦+0.75%⁩ (+0.28)
Market Cap$7.2B
Beta0.97
52w Low52w High
34.4042.61
Last Week
⁦-1.49%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.43%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-2.24%⁩
Last Year
⁦+2.34%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall46
Balanced — near the middle of the marketFalling StarF 5/9Better than 46% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
30
28.6x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
52
9.6%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
70
4.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
47
4.8x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
50
4.01%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
49
1.1%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
50
2▼3Around median
Fair Value
Current price$37
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$42
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$38–$44⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$18
⁦-52%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.7⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$18–$42⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$41.80
⁦+12.5%⁩
Current Price $37.14·Median $42.00
Low
$38.00
High
$44.00
Current price
$37.14
Average target
$41.80
Street summary

Sharp downward revision of STAG Industrial price target

Bearish tilt

STAG Industrial stock has seen a significant downward revision in its average price target over the past thirty days, falling from 66.75 to 42.75, representing a sharp decline of 35.96%. Despite this reduction, the current price target (42.75) remains above the current trading price of 37.25, with a narrow gap between the high (44) and low (41) of the current price targets.

As of 2026-08-31
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-37.4%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.25
Hold
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
33%
Target dispersion
16%
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
1
3
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.09 → 3.25
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    Barclays
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-05-05
    Barclays
    —· $38.00
  • = Reiterate2026-04-29
    Evercore ISI Group
    Outperform· $44.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    28.57x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    70.73x
    5.89x47.13x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.91x
    3.68x29.40x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    6.0%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.6%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    2.4%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    62.0%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    4.9%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.80x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    4.0%
    0.6%15.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    114.6%
    31.2%370.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

STAG Industrial owns and operates a portfolio of industrial buildings and generates income by leasing space to tenants across multiple domestic markets, while expanding the portfolio through acquisitions, development, and build-to-suit projects. In Q2 FY2026, the company commenced 36 leases covering 5.6 million square feet, achieved a tenant retention rate of 75.7%, and addressed 92% of its FY2026 leasing plan. The portfolio also benefits from demand from e-commerce, U.S. onshoring, and data center servicing, and since the beginning of 2025 it has leased 2.3 million square feet to data center-related tenants at a weighted average lease term of approximately seven years.

According to the latest available EDGAR filings, revenue increased from $220.9 million in Q4 FY2025 to $224.2 million in Q1 FY2026, or by approximately 1.5%, while net income declined from $83.5 million to $62.0 million. On a trailing twelve-month basis ending in FY2026, the company reported revenue of $863.8 million, net income of $244.1 million, and earnings per share of approximately $1.28, compared with revenue of $845.2 million and net income of $273.5 million in FY2025. The data did not disclose gross profit or its margin, so the assessment of operating profitability focuses on same-store cash net operating income growth of 3.4% in Q2 FY2026 and 3.9% during the first half of the year.

In Q2 FY2026, Core FFO per share was $0.65, representing year-over-year growth of 3.2%, while cash leasing spreads were 19.8% and straight-line leasing spreads were 33.7%. These results supported an increase in FY2026 Core FFO guidance to $2.61–$2.65 per share and an increase in the same-store cash net operating income growth range to 3%–3.5%. On the growth front, the company spent $287.1 million on seven buildings during the same quarter and is managing nine buildings under development totaling 2.3 million square feet, with an expected stabilized yield of 7.1%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • STAG Industrial raised its FY2026 Core FFO guidance to $2.61–$2.65 per share, increasing the midpoint by one cent, after reducing its expected credit losses from 50 to 30 basis points and raising the average same-store occupancy range to 96.25%–97.25%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Lease repricing remains a direct growth driver; leases commencing in Q2 FY2026 generated cash spreads of 19.8% and straight-line spreads of 33.7%, and management expects annual spreads of between 18% and 20%, trending toward the upper end.
  • Data center-related demand has become an additional long-term source of growth, as the company has leased 2.3 million square feet to this type of tenant since the beginning of 2025, with rent increases of 33% and a weighted average lease term of approximately seven years, with activity concentrated in Michigan, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Houston.
  • The company raised its FY2026 targeted acquisition range to $400–$700 million after completing $287.1 million of acquisitions in Q2, at a 6.1% cash capitalization rate and a 6.8% straight-line yield, with contractual rent increases of approximately 3.3%.
  • The development platform offers higher yields than completed acquisitions; projects not yet placed in service target a stabilized yield of 7.1%, while the build-to-suit project in Rockwall, Texas, targets a yield of 7.5% and delivery in Q2 FY2027.
  • The financing structure strengthens the company’s ability to execute its growth pipeline; liquidity totaled $614 million at the end of Q2 FY2026, and net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 5.2 times, or 5.1 times after accounting for $70 million of proceeds from unsettled forward equity.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Operating performance combines 3.2% growth in Core FFO per share in Q2 FY2026, 3.4% growth in same-store cash net operating income, and cash leasing spreads of 19.8%, indicating the continued conversion of the existing rent gap into higher income.
    • +The contraction of the industrial market’s development pipeline to approximately half its 2022 peak, with space under construction representing only 2% of inventory and 55% of it pre-leased, supports management’s expectation of improving rent growth during FY2027.
    • +Diversified demand across e-commerce, U.S. onshoring, and data center servicing reduces reliance on a single driver, while execution of the FY2027 leasing plan exceeded the historical level at the end of July, reaching approximately 35% compared with 26%–28% typically.
    • +Liquidity of $614 million and leverage of 5.2 times provide the company with capacity to fund an acquisition range of up to $700 million and expand its development platform, while targeting development yields above 7%.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Net income declined from $83.5 million in Q4 FY2025 to $62.0 million in Q1 FY2026, or by approximately 25.7%, despite revenue increasing by approximately 1.5% to $224.2 million; trailing twelve-month net income of $244.1 million was also below the $273.5 million recorded in FY2025.
    • −The company had no significant contracts or letters of intent for the remaining acquisitions according to the July 29, 2026 call, so reaching the $400–$700 million range depends on stable interest rates and economic conditions, as well as continued convergence between buyer and seller expectations.
    • −Some markets face varying degrees of weakness; management described Savannah, Charleston, El Paso, and Reno as slower and specifically noted subdued distribution tenant demand for a 284,000-square-foot building in North Valleys, Reno.
    • −The development platform carries execution and lease-up risks before stabilization, as the company had nine buildings totaling 2.3 million square feet not yet placed in service at the end of Q2 FY2026, while some projects, including the 284,000-square-foot Reno building, still needed to attract tenants.
    • −Leasing spreads may gradually decline if market rent growth remains limited; management explained on July 29, 2026 that flat rents with market growth between 0% and 2% could reduce renewal spreads by approximately five percentage points annually.
    • −The company issued 3.4 million shares on a forward basis through its at-the-market program at an average gross price of $39 per share and gross proceeds of $131 million during FY2026, supporting investment funding and debt reduction but expanding the share count and creating a risk of diluting shareholders’ share of earnings.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $66.75, approximately 56.7% above the 52-week range high of $42.61, but the wide range of targets from $41 to $138 reveals significant divergence in valuation estimates. No reported price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data despite trailing twelve-month earnings per share of approximately $1.28, so the optimistic target should be weighed against the decline in trailing twelve-month net income to $244.1 million, compared with net income of $273.5 million in FY2025.

    BuyAnalyst target: $66.75(+79.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What supports STAG Industrial’s growth in FY2026?

    Growth drivers are based on lease repricing, portfolio expansion, and improving industrial demand. In Q2 FY2026, new and renewed leases generated cash spreads of 19.8%, and same-store cash net operating income increased by 3.4%. The company also raised its acquisition guidance to $400–$700 million and its Core FFO guidance to $2.61–$2.65 per share.

    How important is data center-related demand to STAG’s portfolio?

    Since the beginning of 2025, STAG has leased 2.3 million square feet to tenants serving existing data center operations, such as generator and spare-parts storage. The average term of these leases was approximately seven years, and they generated rent increases of 33%. This demand appeared in markets including Michigan, Wisconsin, South Carolina, and Houston, making it an additional source of demand alongside e-commerce and manufacturing.

    How strong are STAG’s balance sheet and liquidity?

    Liquidity totaled $614 million at the end of Q2 FY2026, and net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was 5.2 times. The ratio declines to 5.1 times after accounting for $70 million of proceeds from unsettled forward equity. On July 16, 2026, the company refinanced two loans with a combined value of $350 million into a single loan maturing on January 16, 2032, saving five basis points on existing bank debt.

    How large is the development program, and what returns are expected from it?

    STAG had nine buildings under development and not yet placed in service, totaling 2.3 million square feet, at the end of Q2 FY2026, with an expected stabilized yield of 7.1%. The program includes a 343,000-square-foot build-to-suit project in Rockwall, Texas, with an expected yield of 7.5% and estimated delivery in Q2 FY2027. The company also plans to begin a 184,000-square-foot project in Chandler, Arizona, in late Q3 FY2026 and deliver it in Q3 FY2027.

    What are STAG’s main occupancy and leasing risks?

    Same-store spot occupancy was 96% at the end of Q2 FY2026, and management expects a slight improvement near the end of FY2026. However, some markets were slower, including Savannah, Charleston, El Paso, and Reno, with particular weakness in distribution demand for a 284,000-square-foot space in North Valleys, Reno. Management also warned that leasing spreads could decline by approximately five percentage points annually if market rents remain nearly flat.

    How does the analyst target compare with STAG’s trading history?

    The average analyst target is $66.75, compared with a wide target range of $41 to $138 and a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average target exceeds the 52-week range high of $42.61 by approximately 56.7%, reflecting stronger growth assumptions than the levels recorded by the stock during that period. However, the absence of a reported price-to-earnings ratio and the wide target range also require consideration of Core FFO growth, the net income trend, and the company’s ability to execute acquisitions and development.