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Home
Stocks
Sempra
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall22
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketSucker StockF 7/9Better than 22% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
35
24.1x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
19
6.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
34
4.3%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
34
5.2x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
49
3.10%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
42
6.2%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
67
10▲3Top tier
SRE

SRE Sempra

Sempra · NYSE
Market Closed
83.34
▼ ⁦-0.79%⁩ (-0.66)
Market Cap$54.5B
Beta0.58
52w Low52w High
79.59101.04
Last Week
⁦-0.54%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.50%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.45%⁩
Last Year
⁦+3.76%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$83
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$102
⁦+22%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$84–$118⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$101.14
⁦+21.4%⁩
Current Price $83.34·Median $102.00
Low
$84.00
High
$118.00
Current price
$83.34
Average target
$101.14
Street summary

Slight decline in targets amid improvement in some ratings

The average price target for Sempra’s stock fell to 101.14, compared with 101.71 seven days ago and 106 30 days ago, representing declines of 0.56% and 4.58%, respectively. The number of analysts remained unchanged at five, indicating that the decline reflects adjustments to existing estimates rather than an expansion of the coverage base. The current range is between 84 and 118, with a median of 102, reflecting notable variation among the targets.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-4.6%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.95
Buy
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
79%
High
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
41%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
3
12
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.53 → 3.95
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-01
    Jefferies
    HoldBuy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-22
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-07
    TD Cowen
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    24.09x
    4.50x36.01x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    15.89x
    4.35x34.77x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.12x
    3.07x24.54x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    -10.8%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Below average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.4%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -16.6%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    41.3%
    9.8%69.4%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    4.3%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.18x
    1.28x10.25x
    Above average
  • Dividend Yield
    3.1%
    1.4%6.1%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    74.6%
    35.0%95.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-07 data

Company Overview

Sempra operates across three business pillars evident in its disclosures: electric transmission and distribution utilities in Texas through Sempra Texas and Oncor, energy utilities in California through Sempra California, SDG&E, and SoCalGas, and infrastructure and liquefied natural gas assets within Sempra Infrastructure. The company generates earnings by investing in regulated assets and recovering their costs through regulatory frameworks, alongside liquefied natural gas projects such as ECA LNG and Port Arthur LNG, but it is strategically moving toward a lower-risk U.S. utility model by recycling capital from Sempra Infrastructure and Ecogas into its utility businesses.

In fiscal Q1 2026, revenue was $3.4 billion, net income was $1.0 billion according to EDGAR data, and diluted earnings per share were $1.58, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 29.4%. On an adjusted basis, the company reported earnings of $991 million and earnings per share of $1.51, compared with $942 million and $1.44 in fiscal Q1 2025, while GAAP earnings per share increased from $1.39 to $1.58.

The improvement in adjusted earnings in fiscal Q1 2026 came from a $25 million increase at Sempra Texas, $44 million from higher core operating earnings at Sempra California, and $34 million at Sempra Infrastructure due to lower depreciation following the classification of assets as held for sale. In contrast, Sempra Parent recorded an additional $6 million in losses, while the Texas businesses faced higher interest, depreciation, and operating and maintenance expenses, and the California businesses had $48 million less in tax benefits along with higher net interest expense.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Sempra invested three billion dollars during fiscal Q1 2026 toward an annual target of approximately $13 billion for energy transmission and distribution infrastructure, while its total capital plan amounts to $65 billion and there are approximately nine billion dollars of additional opportunities, mostly in Texas.
  • Oncor's base-rate review settlement increased the authorized return on equity to 9.75%, the equity layer to 43.5%, and the cost of debt to 4.94%. The first UTM filing also included $4.4 billion of transmission and distribution assets placed in service since January 1, 2025, with a final order and updated rates expected during 2026.
  • Oncor submitted documented loads to the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan, including 102.22 gigawatts of loads of 75 megawatts or more and 5.2 gigawatts of medium-sized loads, within a total queue of 289 gigawatts, of which 271 gigawatts are associated with data centers. The disclosure cited projects initiated by ERCOT with an estimated cost of approximately $2.9 billion, most of which are located in Oncor's service territory and are currently included among the additional spending opportunities.
  • The company targets long-term earnings-per-share growth of between 7% and 9%, with a guidance range announced on May 7, 2026, of $4.80 to $5.30 for fiscal 2026 and $5.10 to $5.70 for fiscal 2027. On August 18, 2026, the company reported that it had revised its fiscal 2026 outlook and reaffirmed its fiscal 2027 guidance, but the available information does not include the revised fiscal 2026 range.
  • ECA LNG Phase 1 achieved mechanical completion and began commissioning after the introduction of gas, while Port Arthur LNG Phases 1 and 2 continued to progress on schedule and on budget according to the May 7, 2026, call. The company was also in discussions to secure the remaining volumes from Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 under long-term contracts.
  • Sempra aims for Texas to represent approximately 60% of its regulated asset base by the end of 2030, driven by Oncor's $47.5 billion capital plan and electric transmission opportunities. Management says Oncor's base plan does not depend on data-center demand materializing, while the conversion of large loads into actual projects could add capital spending above the base plan.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The $65 billion capital plan combines regulated asset growth with improved investment recovery mechanisms; Oncor's UTM allows a new filing every 365 days, which could reduce regulatory lag and bring the realized return closer to the authorized return of 9.75%.
  • +Texas provides a quantified expansion path: Oncor's base plan amounts to $47.5 billion, the cited additional opportunities are approximately ten billion dollars, and 127 gigawatts of loads submitted to the Regional Transmission Plan met the documentation requirements in effect at the time of filing.
  • +Adjusted earnings increased in fiscal Q1 2026 to $991 million and earnings per share to $1.51, from $942 million and $1.44 a year earlier, alongside the continuing long-term earnings-per-share growth target of between 7% and 9%.
  • +Closing the SI Partners transaction and selling Ecogas, as planned during 2026, could release capital for reinvestment in utilities, repayment of parent-company debt, and the deconsolidation of Sempra Infrastructure. This supports Sempra's transition to a model focused on U.S. utilities and allocates more capital to Texas.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates SRE as a "Buy," with an average price target of $105.33 and a range of $100 to $118; the average is only approximately 4.2% above the 52-week range high of $101.04, while the highest target is approximately 16.8% above that high. In contrast, the August 18, 2026, report cited a price-to-earnings multiple of 24.8 times versus 18.7 times for the global sector and 20.6 times for peers, so the valuation assumes achievement of the targeted earnings-per-share growth of between 7% and 9% and execution of the capital plan without setbacks. The relatively narrow target range of $100 to $118 reflects a positive view, but the multiple premium and regulatory and capital-execution risks limit the margin of safety.

BuyAnalyst target: $105.33(+26.4%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is the main driver of Sempra's earnings growth over the coming years?

The announced growth is based on a $65 billion capital plan, with an increasing portion directed toward Texas utilities. Oncor's base plan amounts to $47.5 billion, alongside approximately ten billion dollars of additional opportunities, while Sempra aims to have approximately 60% of its regulated asset base in Texas by the end of 2030. The company targets long-term earnings-per-share growth of between 7% and 9%, supported by regulatory mechanisms such as the UTM, which can be filed every 365 days.

How important is data-center demand to Oncor's business?

Oncor's large-load queue amounted to approximately 289 gigawatts on May 7, 2026, of which 271 gigawatts were associated with data centers. The company submitted 102.22 gigawatts of large loads and 5.2 gigawatts of medium-sized loads to the 2026 Regional Transmission Plan and said the quality level of the submitted loads was comparable to the previous high-confidence group. However, these loads are subject to studies and approvals extending through 2026 and 2027, and management confirms that Oncor's base plan does not depend on them materializing.

How did Sempra perform in fiscal Q1 2026?

Revenue was $3.4 billion, net income was $1.0 billion, and diluted earnings per share were $1.58 according to EDGAR data. On an adjusted basis, the company generated $991 million and earnings per share of $1.51, compared with $942 million and $1.44 in fiscal Q1 2025. Sempra Texas contributed a $25 million increase in earnings, Sempra California contributed a $44 million increase in core operating earnings, and Sempra Infrastructure contributed a $34 million increase.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Targeting Texas to represent approximately 60% of the regulated asset base by the end of 2030 increases geographic and regulatory concentration; any delay in ERCOT or PUCT approvals, rights-of-way, or CCN certificates could affect the timing of converting additional spending opportunities into return-generating assets.
  • −Although Oncor's queue reached 289 gigawatts, including 271 gigawatts for data centers, converting these requests into actual loads requires coordination between transmission construction, generation availability, and stages of ERCOT studies during 2026 and 2027. Therefore, the entire queue should not be equated with committed capital spending, even though management has confirmed that the base plan does not depend on it.
  • −Sempra exceeded fiscal Q2 2026 earnings estimates, but its revenue came in below expectations, revealing a divergence between earnings growth and sales performance. It also announced on August 18, 2026, that it had revised its fiscal 2026 guidance without the available information including the new range, limiting the ability to assess the direction and magnitude of the revision.
  • −Execution of the capital plan remains exposed to labor and supply-chain constraints; Oncor described the labor market as tight, although it increased its use of contract labor to approximately three times its previous level and secured the needs for the first three years of the base plan. For the two outer years, there were understandings or agreements that had not yet been documented or executed, according to the May 7, 2026, call.
  • −Wildfire risks and the legal framework in California remain in place, as management said on May 7, 2026, that the current framework was unsustainable and inadequate and that the SB 254 remedy was still within the legislative process. In addition, increasing SDG&E's authorized base return to 10.28% remained subject to FERC approval expected in the second half of 2026.
  • −The August 18, 2026, report cited a price-to-earnings multiple of 24.8 times, above the global integrated utilities sector average of 18.7 times and the peer average of 20.6 times, leaving room for multiple contraction if execution slows or growth expectations disappoint. Insiders also recorded net sales of 957,187 shares across three transactions during the three months ending with the latest transaction on June 17, 2026, but this is a weak standalone indicator because insider sales may be prearranged unless proven otherwise.
What is the status of Sempra's liquefied natural gas projects?

On May 7, 2026, ECA LNG Phase 1 had achieved mechanical completion and begun initial commissioning after gas was introduced into the facility. Port Arthur LNG Phases 1 and 2 were progressing on schedule and on budget, with discussions continuing to secure the remaining volumes from Phase 2 under long-term contracts. Despite the positive outlook for liquefied natural gas opportunities, Sempra explained that it would reduce its capital allocation to this business as it transitions to a model focused on U.S. utilities.

What is the impact of the SI Partners transaction and the sale of Ecogas on Sempra's strategy?

On May 7, 2026, Sempra expected to close the SI Partners transaction during fiscal Q2 or Q3 2026 after obtaining approvals from FERC and antitrust authorities, with some approvals from partners and Japanese financing entities still outstanding. The Ecogas sale was also targeted to close during fiscal Q2 or Q3 2026. The company intends to use the proceeds to reinvest in utilities, repay part of the parent company's debt, and deconsolidate Sempra Infrastructure, but rating agencies were also awaiting progress on construction projects before adjusting their credit thresholds.

What are the main regulatory and execution risks facing SRE?

Additional Texas projects require ERCOT and PUCT approvals, CCN certificates, and rights-of-way before entering the committed capital plan. In California, the wildfire liability framework was under legislative discussion on May 7, 2026, while SDG&E's proposed settlement to increase the authorized base return to 10.28% remained subject to FERC approval. At the execution level, Oncor described the labor market as tight, and the needs for the two outer years of the procurement plan were based on understandings or agreements that had not yet been executed.