| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 35 | 43.7x | 17.3x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 67 | 9.8% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 82 | 7.6% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 95 | — | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 61 | 0.00% | 0.06% | Around median | |
Momentum | 71 | -25.7% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 79 | 8 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
69% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
SPS Commerce operates a cloud-based retail supply chain network connecting tens of thousands of suppliers with 3,500 buying organizations, more than 2,000 logistics service providers, and more than 400 technology partners. The company generates revenue through recurring subscriptions to Fulfillment, Revenue Recovery, and Analytics solutions, while relying on expansion within its customer base by adding trading partners and selling additional solutions; its long-term growth algorithm targets approximately two-thirds of growth from higher average revenue per customer and one-third from customer count growth.
In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $197.8 million, up a reported 6% year over year, and gross profit was $138.8 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 70.2%. Net income was $6.9 million and earnings per share were $0.19, affected by a $23.5 million loss on the sale of the third-party seller revenue recovery business, while cash consideration at closing was $9.5 million.
Recurring revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026 grew 6% year over year, and the number of recurring revenue customers after the divestiture decreased by approximately 7,300 customers to nearly 46,600 customers, with reported average revenue of $15,100 per customer. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $66.6 million, or approximately 33.7% of revenue, while free cash flow was $57.4 million during the quarter and $198.7 million during the trailing twelve months, up 40% year over year.
The analyst consensus on SPSC is Neutral, with an average price target of $69 and a wide range between $59 and $100; the average lies in the lower half of the 52-week range of $49.04–$114.87, while even the highest target remains below the top of that range. The provided data does not include a price-to-earnings ratio, so the stock's valuation rests on balancing expected revenue growth of approximately 5% in fiscal 2026 against targeted adjusted margin expansion of approximately 300 basis points, while considering the impact of the divestiture and the fact that MAX monetization has not yet been proven.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
SPS Commerce generates recurring revenue from a cloud-based network connecting suppliers with retailers, distributors, logistics service providers, and technology partners. Its portfolio includes Fulfillment, Revenue Recovery, and Analytics solutions, with revenue expansion through the addition of trading relationships and the sale of additional products to existing customers. In Q2 fiscal 2026, the number of recurring revenue customers was approximately 46,600, with reported average revenue per customer of $15,100. Its long-term growth algorithm targets approximately two-thirds of growth from average revenue per customer and one-third from customer count growth.
SPS Commerce announced on June 30, 2026, the sale of the Revenue Recovery business serving third-party sellers for a $9.5 million cash payment. The transaction resulted in the departure of approximately 7,300 customers and the recognition of a $23.5 million loss in Q2 fiscal 2026. Second-half fiscal 2026 guidance includes an approximately $10.5 million reduction in revenue, with an expected neutral impact on adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization. Following the transaction, the company is focusing on first-party suppliers that can purchase Fulfillment, Revenue Recovery, and Analytics across multiple retailer relationships.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
MAX is based on data accumulated across the SPS Commerce network over 25 years, including transaction patterns, digital specifications, and the compliance rules of major retailers and distributors. During the pilot phase, it identified a $290,000 invoice failure, flagged 100 stalled drop-ship orders, and uncovered $70,000 in unacknowledged purchase orders. It also helped Branch Furniture save 90% of the weekly time allocated to managing back orders. The company was targeting making MAX available to all Fulfillment customers by the end of summer 2026 and beginning to sell autonomous agent packages by late Q4 fiscal 2026.
The company expects fiscal 2026 revenue between $788 million and $793.4 million, representing growth of approximately 5% at the midpoint. It expects adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization between $265 million and $269.1 million and an adjusted margin of 34% at the midpoint, an increase of approximately 300 basis points from fiscal 2025. GAAP diluted earnings per share guidance ranges from $2.24 to $2.33, while non-GAAP diluted earnings per share ranges from $4.84 to $4.93. After excluding the divested business, management expects high-single-digit revenue growth for the core business.
Over the long term, SPS Commerce expects approximately one-third of growth to come from customer count growth and approximately two-thirds from higher average revenue per customer. In fiscal 2026, management expects average revenue per customer to make a larger contribution because customer count is expected to remain flat or increase only slightly. Customer count declined by more than 200 sequentially in Q2 fiscal 2026 because of the timing of retailer enablement programs, but management said that second-half programs and the opportunity pipeline were strong on July 30, 2026. Increasing average revenue depends on adding trading partners and selling Revenue Recovery and Analytics to Fulfillment customers.
SPS Commerce ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with $173 million in cash and cash equivalents. Quarterly free cash flow was $57.4 million, while trailing-twelve-month free cash flow reached $198.7 million, up 40% year over year. The company used $51.2 million to repurchase shares during the quarter, equivalent to approximately 90% of quarterly free cash flow. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $66.6 million, or approximately 33.7% of quarterly revenue.