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Stocks
Simon Property Group, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall65
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 5/8DistressInsider cluster buyBetter than 65% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
37
14.4x▲17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
58
15.0%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
87
10.8%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
39
5.6x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
22
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
71
22.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
81
6▲3Top tier
SPG

SPG Simon Property Group, Inc.

Simon Property Group, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
204.83
▲ ⁦+0.08%⁩ (+0.16)
Market Cap$66.4B
Beta1.33
52w Low52w High
172.19238.50
Last Week
⁦-3.32%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.13%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-3.33%⁩
Last Year
⁦+12.20%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$205
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$218
⁦+6%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$207–$285⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$30
⁦-86%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦10.3⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$30–$218⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$223.60
⁦+9.2%⁩
Current Price $204.83·Median $217.50
Low
$207.00
High
$285.00
Current price
$204.83
Average target
$223.60
Street summary

Simon Property Group (SPG) Price Target Revision Analysis

The average price target for Simon Property Group stock saw a slight increase of 1.79% over the past thirty days, with the consensus moving from 219.67 to 223.6 dollars. Despite this slight improvement in price targets, the current price (214.89) is very close to the median price of 217.5, indicating that the stock is trading near its fair value according to current analyst estimates, with a notable dispersion between the high (285) and low (207).

As of 2026-08-27
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+1.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.38
Hold
Analyst coverage
21
Buy conviction
33%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
38%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time21 analysts rating
1
6
14
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.43 → 3.38
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-20
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    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    14.44x
    5.03x40.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    29.82x
    5.89x47.13x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    19.17x
    3.68x29.40x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    4.9%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    15.0%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    119.2%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    84.6%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    10.8%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.57x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.45
    -0.883.10
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-10 data

Company Overview

Simon Property Group owns, operates, and develops a portfolio of shopping malls, Premium Outlets, The Mills, international properties, and mixed-use projects. Its core economic engine is rental income, with cash flow growth driven by rent increases, reletting recovered spaces, improving the tenant mix, and developing assets; it also benefits from digital and advertising platforms including Simon+, ShopSimon, Simon Search, and a network of more than 4,000 screens.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, revenue was approximately $1.8 billion and net income was $484.0 million, representing an approximate net income margin of 26.9%, while earnings per share were $1.49. Revenue of $1.79 billion exceeded expectations, but earnings per share fell short of analysts’ estimate of $1.61. Funds from real estate operations reached $1.25 billion, or $3.29 per share, up 7.9% year over year, while domestic property net operating income increased 8.5%.

The portfolio mix in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 showed positive performance across domestic and international operations, with portfolio net operating income, including international properties and at constant exchange rates, growing 8.3%. Occupancy at shopping malls and Premium Outlets was 96%, and occupancy at The Mills was 98.8%, despite the recovery of approximately one million square feet related to the Saks Off Fifth bankruptcy, while average minimum base rent at shopping malls and Premium Outlets increased 6.3%. The acquisition of the remaining 12% stake in TRG contributed approximately 120 basis points to domestic net operating income growth.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On August 10, 2026, the company raised its fiscal year 2026 funds from real estate operations guidance to a range of $13.20–$13.30 per share, compared with $12.73 in fiscal year 2025 and an increase of $0.08 at the midpoint of the previous range.
  • During Q2 of fiscal year 2026, the company signed more than 1,200 leases covering 4.8 million square feet, and the number of new leases increased by more than 20% year over year. Through the end of that quarter, initial base rent per square foot on new leases increased 17%, while tenant improvement allowances per square foot decreased 12%.
  • The company expects to convert $18 million in rent from former Saks Off Fifth spaces into $44 million in income after reletting, representing a potential increase of $26 million. Signed leases covering nearly half of the space had already exceeded the previous rent value by the August 10, 2026 call, but management clarified that most of the income impact will be a fiscal year 2027 story.
  • Shopping mall and Premium Outlets sales reached approximately $838 per square foot in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, up 13.9%, while total sales volume increased 7.6% during the quarter and comparable sales rose 5.7%. Visitor traffic also increased 2% during the quarter and then 3.6% in July 2026, supporting sales-based rents if the trend continues.
  • Simon Property Group’s share of the net cost of projects under development was $1.07 billion at the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026, with a blended yield of 9%, and approximately 50% of that amount was for mixed-use projects. Management also presented a development pipeline exceeding $4 billion and a plan to begin projects worth more than $600 million during the second half of fiscal year 2026.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The results combine strong operating growth with improved leasing economics; domestic net operating income increased 8.5% and funds from real estate operations rose 7.9% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, alongside a 17% increase in rents on new leases and a 12% decrease in improvement allowances.
  • +The portfolio demonstrated its ability to absorb a major tenant shock, as shopping malls and Premium Outlets maintained 96% occupancy despite recovering approximately one million square feet from Saks Off Fifth, before occupancy reached 96.3% at the end of July 2026. Converting rent from those spaces from $18 million to $44 million could increase income, with a clearer impact beginning in fiscal year 2027.
  • +Liquidity of $9.3 billion, net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization below 5.0 times, and fixed-charge coverage of 4.7 times provide capacity to fund development and reinvestment. Current development spending targets a blended yield of 9%, giving the company an additional source of cash flow growth.
  • +Capital allocation supports shareholder returns; the company declared a dividend of $2.25 per share for Q3 of fiscal year 2026, up 4.7% year over year, and repurchased approximately 793 thousand shares and 238 thousand partnership units for $211 million in Q2. Insider data through June 30, 2026 also showed 28 purchases and no sales recorded over three months.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $223.33, with a wide range of $207 to $285 and a Neutral consensus, while the 52-week range extends from $172.19 to $238.50. The average target is below the 52-week range high, while the highest target clearly exceeds that high; this dispersion reflects the balance between growth in funds from operations and raised fiscal year 2026 guidance versus interest-rate pressure and the potential slowdown in tenant sales.

HoldAnalyst target: $223.33(+9.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove SPG’s growth in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

Funds from real estate operations increased 7.9% to $1.25 billion, or $3.29 per share, and domestic property net operating income increased 8.5%. Growth came from higher rental income, cost controls, and acquisition contributions, including approximately 120 basis points related to the additional 12% stake in TRG. The company signed more than 1,200 leases covering more than 4.8 million square feet during the quarter, with new leases increasing by more than 20% year over year.

How did the Saks Off Fifth bankruptcy affect Simon Property Group?

The company recovered approximately one million square feet from Saks Off Fifth in mid-May 2026, and these spaces had generated $18 million in rent. By the August 10, 2026 call, signed leases covering approximately half of the space had exceeded the previous rent value, and management expects total income to reach $44 million after reletting is completed. Shopping mall and Premium Outlets occupancy remained at 96% at the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026 and reached 96.3% at the end of July 2026, but most of the impact from the new rents will appear in fiscal year 2027.

What is SPG’s funds from operations guidance for fiscal year 2026?

On August 10, 2026, the company raised its funds from real estate operations guidance range to $13.20–$13.30 per share. This compares with $12.73 in fiscal year 2025 and represents a $0.08 increase at the midpoint of the previous range. The guidance assumes moderating tenant sales growth during the second half of fiscal year 2026, although management had not seen evidence of an imminent slowdown as of the call date.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Simon Property Group’s results remain tied to retailer health and demand for space; the Saks Off Fifth bankruptcy returned approximately one million square feet to the company in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Management succeeded in maintaining occupancy, but additional bankruptcies could create periods of vacancy, improvement costs, and delays before replacement rents begin.
  • −Fiscal year 2026 guidance assumes a slowdown in tenant sales during the second half, and management said that continued current growth rates could lift results above the range, but it cannot control sales. This increases the sensitivity of funds from operations to sales-based rents, particularly given the more difficult comparisons following improved shopping mall sales in the second half of fiscal year 2025.
  • −Earnings face clear financing pressure; higher interest expense and lower interest income represented a year-over-year headwind of $0.06 per share in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Management estimated fiscal year 2026 interest expense pressure at approximately $0.25–$0.30 per share, with approximately $0.20 of the impact remaining for the second half, in addition to approximately $4.5 billion of unsecured debt maturities in the second half of fiscal year 2027.
  • −Net operating income growth includes a nonrecurring contribution from the increased ownership stake in TRG; the purchase of the remaining 12% stake added approximately 120 basis points to growth in Q2 and the first half of fiscal year 2026. Management explained that this comparison effect will fade over the next two quarters, increasing the burden on rent growth, reletting, and development to maintain the pace.
  • −Tenant sales strength is not fully uniform; management described restaurants as slightly weaker than the rest of the portfolio, while border-region assets and some Premium Outlets recorded lower growth due to international travel. Continued divergence could limit growth in visitor traffic, sales, and variable rents at assets with greater exposure to these categories.
  • −Valuation carries expectations risk because the analyst consensus is Neutral, with a wide target range of $207 to $285. The average target of $223.33 is below the 52-week range high of $238.50, reflecting that operating strength and raised guidance do not eliminate interest-rate risks and slowing sales from market estimates.
Can SPG fund its projects and debt maturities?

The company ended Q2 of fiscal year 2026 with liquidity of approximately $9.3 billion, net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization below 5.0 times, and fixed-charge coverage of 4.7 times. During the quarter, it completed eight secured loan transactions valued at $1.4 billion with a weighted-average interest rate of 5.36%, and issued €500 million of senior notes at 3.65% interest for five years. In contrast, it faces approximately $4.5 billion of unsecured debt maturities in the second half of fiscal year 2027, and refinancing costs remain exposed to the elevated interest-rate environment.

How important are development projects to SPG’s future?

The company’s share of the net cost of projects under development reached $1.07 billion at the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026, with a targeted blended yield of 9%. Mixed-use development represents approximately 50% of that cost, while the total project pipeline exceeds $4 billion. Management presented a plan to begin projects with additional net costs exceeding $600 million during the second half of fiscal year 2026, alongside more than $400 million allocated over four years for center improvements.

What are the key demand indicators within Simon Property Group’s portfolio?

Shopping mall and Premium Outlets sales reached approximately $838 per square foot in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, up 13.9%. Total sales volume grew 7.6% during the quarter, comparable sales increased 5.7%, and visitor traffic rose 2% in the quarter and 3.6% in July 2026. The company also completed more than 87% of its 2026 lease expirations, and the potential deal pipeline stood at 483 deals as of the August 10, 2026 call.