| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 60 | 16.2x | 17.3x | Around median | |
Growth | 19 | -19.2% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 88 | 8.1% | 4.5% | Top tier | |
Safety | 36 | 4.5x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 66 | 5.59% | 0.06% | Around median | |
Momentum | 85 | 29.7% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 68 | 8 | 3 | Top tier |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
65% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
South Bow Corporation operates a crude oil pipeline system, with the value of its business anchored by the Keystone corridor, which connects Western Canadian production with refining and export markets in PADD 2, PADD 3, and the U.S. Gulf Coast. The company generates revenue by providing transportation capacity and access to multiple delivery points, while long-term contracts support cash flow stability; the open season demonstrated the success of this model by securing customer commitments of 465 thousand barrels per day for 20 years.
In fiscal year 2025, revenue totaled $2.0 billion compared with $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2024, while gross profit remained stable at $1.7 billion. Net income increased to $433 million from $316 million, and earnings per share rose to $2.07 from $1.52; the approximately calculated gross profit margin also improved to 85% from about 81%, as gross profit remained stable while revenue declined.
In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, the U.S. Gulf Coast segment of the Keystone system recorded new all-time flow highs, supported by disruptions in global oil trade and increased demand for connections to refineries and export markets. The strong operating performance led to an increase in fiscal year 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance to $1.04 billion within a range of 2% higher or 1% lower, and an increase in distributable cash flow guidance to $665 million within a 2% range. The ratio of net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization improved to 4.4 times by the end of the quarter, with a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share declared on August 5, 2026.
The average analyst price target is $34.75, within a wide range of $29 to $39, while the highest target is close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $38.94, and the lower end of that range is $25.015. The consensus neutral rating reflects a balance between the 20-year contracts and the increase in fiscal year 2026 guidance on one hand, and permitting risks, leverage, and more moderate second-half performance on the other; the absence of a usable price-to-earnings ratio also limits direct comparison based on earnings.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
The company secured commitments from a broad group of producers to transport 465 thousand barrels per day for 20 years. These commitments represent the commercial foundation for the Prairie Connector project and the associated connection projects. Management is targeting a final investment decision in mid-2027 after completing permitting, execution planning, and cost and financing refinement.
Prairie Connector aims to leverage the existing South Bow corridor to transport more Western Canadian crude oil toward U.S. demand markets. Liberty Bridge, which is being developed in cooperation with Bridger, aims to connect Guernsey Hub with Cushing through a corridor on privately owned land. The system can be designed for future expansion to more than 800 thousand barrels per day, compared with current-phase commitments of 465 thousand barrels per day.
Fiscal year 2025 revenue totaled about $2.0 billion, down from $2.1 billion in fiscal year 2024. Gross profit remained stable at $1.7 billion, while net income increased to $433 million from $316 million. Earnings per share rose to $2.07 from $1.52, reflecting a clear improvement in profitability despite the decline in revenue.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
On August 6, 2026, the company raised adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance to $1.04 billion within a range of 2% higher or 1% lower. It also raised distributable cash flow guidance to $665 million within a 2% range. However, management expects the second half of fiscal year 2026 to be more moderate than the first half because of lower inventories at Hardisty and Cushing.
The company continues corrective actions related to the Milepost 171 incident and expects to gradually lift pressure restrictions through the end of 2026 and during 2027. Management also requires long-term permitting durability before incurring material expenditures on Prairie Connector and Liberty Bridge. Discussions regarding such protection had not reached a final outcome as of the August 6, 2026 call, despite management's confirmation that multiple avenues remain under consideration.
The ratio of net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization improved from about 5 times at the company's launch to 4.4 times by the end of quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. Reducing leverage remains the highest capital allocation priority, particularly as development spending on Prairie Connector and Liberty Bridge increases. On August 5, 2026, the board of directors declared a quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.