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Home
Stocks
Semtech Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall33
Weak — below market medianHigh FlyerF 7/9Better than 33% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
8
119.6x▼17.4xBottom tier
▸
Growth
90
17.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
88
15.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
60
2.6x2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
47
0.00%▼0.18%Around median
▸
Momentum
98
85.7%▲1.3%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
43
9▲3Around median
SMTC

SMTC Semtech Corporation

Semtech Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Open
193.78
▼ ⁦-1.73%⁩ (-3.42)
Market Cap$18.4B
Beta2.35
52w Low52w High
60.28201.99
Last Week
⁦+7.60%⁩
Last Month
⁦+31.03%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+50.40%⁩
Last Year
⁦+169.14%⁩
Fair Value
Current price⁦$197⁩
  • Analyst targetsLow confidence
    4 analysts
    ⁦$205⁩
    ⁦+4%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$155⁩–⁦$300⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦+18%⁩
  • Value at the industry multiple
    Next year's earnings × ⁦33.9⁩, median of 70 companies
    ⁦$121⁩
    ⁦−38%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$77⁩–⁦$192⁩⁩
  • Discounted cash flow model
    ⁦14.3%⁩ discount rate · follows analysts' earnings estimates, then ⁦20%⁩ growth
    ⁦$89⁩
    ⁦−55%⁩
    Range ⁦⁦$77⁩–⁦$106⁩⁩Typical for this method across large companies: ⁦−47%⁩
0
methods value it above the price
1
methods near the price
2
methods value it below the price

10-year US Treasury yield ⁦5.31%⁩ as of ⁦2026-10-05⁩. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$211.80
⁦+9.3%⁩
Current Price $193.78·Median $205.00
Low
$155.00
High
$300.00
Current price
$193.78
Average target
$211.80
Street summary

Relatively stable with a slight decrease in consensus

The consensus target price remained at 209.67 with no change over the last day, but declined by 0.69 points, or 0.33%, compared with the levels 7 and 30 days earlier. The range between 155 and 300, across four analysts, indicates clear divergence in expectations; the current price of 174.78 is above the lower bound and below the consensus and median of 200. There is no change in the number of analysts, so the degree of agreement does not appear higher.

As of 2026-09-28
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
16
Buy conviction
94%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
75%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time16 analysts rating
1
14
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-22
    Seaport Global
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-26
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-26
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    119.62x
    7.32x58.55x
    Very expensive
  • Forward P/E
    55.07x
    5.31x42.49x
    Expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    157.80x
    4.62x36.97x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    1.1%
    -60.3%11.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    17.8%
    -20.7%65.7%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    161.3%
    -169.4%186.1%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    52.1%
    13.2%79.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    15.9%
    -63.2%26.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.55x
    0.26x3.21x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    0.0%
    0.0%1.6%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Last updated: 2026-08-29Based on 2026-08-25 data

Company Overview

Semtech Corporation operates in semiconductors and connectivity systems, generating revenue from three main end markets: infrastructure, industrial, and high-end consumer. Its portfolio includes FiberEdge and CopperEdge data center solutions and photonic components, the LoRa platform for low-power connectivity, AirLink devices for mission-critical communications, as well as TVS circuit protection and PerSe sensing solutions. In fiscal Q2 2027, industrial sales were $179 million, infrastructure sales were $124 million, and high-end consumer sales were $39 million, representing approximately 52%, 36%, and 11% of revenue, respectively.

In fiscal Q2 2027, ended July 26, 2026, Semtech reported record revenue of $342 million, up 17% sequentially and 33% year over year, exceeding the high end of its guidance. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $0.71, up 39% sequentially and 73% year over year, while the adjusted gross margin increased to 54.5% from 53% in the previous quarter. The company also reported adjusted operating income of $84 million and an adjusted operating margin of 24.4%, while the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin was 26.6%.

The latest available EDGAR statements for fiscal Q1 2027 showed revenue of $291.0 million, gross profit of $151.5 million, net income of $26.6 million, and earnings per share of $0.27. In fiscal Q2 2027, operating cash flow was $69 million and free cash flow was $61 million, compared with $204 million in cash and cash equivalents and $503 million in principal debt at the end of the quarter. However, trailing-twelve-month net income in fiscal 2027 remained negative at $33.2 million, illustrating the gap between adjusted operating improvement and cumulative accounting profitability.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Data center revenue reached a record $100 million in fiscal Q2 2027, up 39% sequentially and 91% year over year, driven by continued strength in 800-gig products and the beginning of the ramp in FiberEdge and CopperEdge at 1.6T.
  • Management expects fiscal Q3 2027 revenue of $410 million, plus or minus $5 million, representing growth of 20% sequentially and 54% year over year at the midpoint. It also expects adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.05, plus or minus $0.03, and year-over-year growth of 119% at the midpoint.
  • Semtech is carrying record backlog into fiscal Q3 2027 and expects data center revenue to grow 45% sequentially and approximately 160% year over year. Management stated that the revenue target for the remainder of fiscal 2027 is nearly fully booked and that bookings cover more than 70% of fiscal 2028.
  • LoRa reported record revenue of $58 million in fiscal Q2 2027, up 31% sequentially and 58% year over year. The company expects another record level in fiscal Q3 2027, with growth of approximately 15% sequentially and 65% year over year, supported by LoRaWAN and LoRa Plus, while Amazon Sidewalk's contribution remained limited in Q2.
  • Semtech expects the data center and LoRa product mix to increase the adjusted gross margin to 58.3% in fiscal Q3 2027, up 380 basis points sequentially. Excluding the cellular modules business held for sale, the estimated margin reaches 63.9%, compared with a 59.7% margin on the same basis in Q2.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on actual acceleration in data centers, as revenue from this business rose to $100 million in fiscal Q2 2027, and management expects 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge products to exceed half of data center revenue in Q3.
  • +Semtech has strong market-share momentum; its share in 800-gig FiberEdge exceeded 50% after being approximately 18% two years ago, and management expects its share in 1.6T FiberEdge to exceed 50% by the end of fiscal 2027.
  • +Diversified growth drivers provide support beyond data centers, as industrial sales grew 25% year over year to $179 million in fiscal Q2 2027, LoRa reported year-over-year growth of 58%, and Internet of Things systems and connectivity revenue increased 11% both sequentially and year over year to $98 million.
  • +Operating leverage enhances the quality of growth; adjusted earnings per share grew 73% year over year versus revenue growth of 33% in fiscal Q2 2027, and free cash flow increased 48% year over year to $61 million. For fiscal Q3 2027, management is targeting an adjusted operating margin of 31% and an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin of 32.8% at the midpoint.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $210.36, with a Buy consensus and a wide target range between $155 and $300; the average is approximately 18.6% above the 52-week range high of $177.35. In contrast, no positive price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the trailing-twelve-month net loss in fiscal 2027, so the valuation depends heavily on the realization of data center and LoRa growth, the closing of the cellular modules business sale, and the conversion of adjusted earnings into sustainable accounting profitability.

BuyAnalyst target: $210.36(+8.6%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Semtech's growth in fiscal Q2 2027?

Semtech's revenue increased to $342 million in fiscal Q2 2027, representing year-over-year growth of 33%. Data centers were the fastest-growing driver, with revenue reaching $100 million and rising 91% year over year, supported by 800-gig and 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge. LoRa sales also increased 58% year over year to a record $58 million, while industrial sales overall reported year-over-year growth of 25%.

What is Semtech's outlook for fiscal Q3 2027?

Management expects revenue of $410 million, plus or minus $5 million, and year-over-year growth of 54% at the midpoint. It expects an adjusted gross margin of 58.3% and adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.05, plus or minus $0.03. It also expects data center revenue to grow approximately 45% sequentially and LoRa to grow approximately 15% sequentially.

How important are FiberEdge and CopperEdge to SMTC's business?

FiberEdge serves optical communications, while CopperEdge provides linear equalization solutions for copper links in data centers. In fiscal Q2 2027, the two products at 1.6T helped increase the adjusted semiconductor products margin to 62.8%. Management expects 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge products to exceed half of data center revenue in Q3 and the share of 1.6T FiberEdge to exceed 50% by the end of fiscal 2027.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Production capacity could become a constraint on meeting demand; management said secured capacity may not be sufficient for the second half of fiscal 2028, despite being adequate for the near term. Expansion requires adding test equipment, qualifying new manufacturing partners, and potentially using advance payments or additional capital expenditure.
  • −Cumulative accounting profitability remains weaker than adjusted metrics, as Semtech reported a net loss of $40.4 million in fiscal 2026 and a net loss of $33.2 million over the trailing twelve months in fiscal 2027. Therefore, no positive price-to-earnings ratio is available for valuing the stock based on current accounting earnings.
  • −The expected structural improvement in margins partly depends on completing the sale of the cellular modules business, which was expected in fiscal Q4 2027. Management estimated that excluding this business adds more than 500 basis points to the gross margin, making the timing of the transaction's closing an important factor in achieving the targeted margin profile.
  • −The high-end consumer market showed relative weakness in fiscal Q2 2027, with sales declining 5% year over year to $39 million despite growing 2% sequentially. Management also pointed to pressures related to memory constraints in the sector, which could limit TVS and sensing from benefiting from content and share gains.
  • −The expansion plan is linked to a global supply chain that requires partners for front-end processing, testing, packaging, and die singulation, and management explicitly mentioned qualifying additional manufacturing partners to mitigate potential geopolitical risks. Any delay in qualification or equipment delivery could pressure the company's ability to fulfill backlog in fiscal 2028.
  • −The valuation carries a high degree of uncertainty; the absence of a positive price-to-earnings ratio coincides with a wide range of analyst targets between $155 and $300. The 52-week range of $55.18 to $177.35 also reflects significant sensitivity to repricing, even as the analyst consensus remains Buy.
How does LoRa contribute to Semtech's growth?

LoRa revenue reached a record $58 million in fiscal Q2 2027, up 31% sequentially and 58% year over year. The growth strategy combines LoRaWAN for industrial and commercial applications, LoRa Plus for smart homes and security, and Amazon Sidewalk for consumer applications. LoRa Plus represented approximately 20% to 25% of the LoRa mix in Q2, while management expects year-over-year LoRa revenue growth of approximately 65% in Q3.

What is the impact of selling the cellular modules business on Semtech's margins?

Semtech signed a definitive agreement to sell the cellular modules business and expected to close the transaction in fiscal Q4 2027. The adjusted gross margin was 54.5% in Q2 but reached 59.7% when excluding the business held for sale. For Q3, management estimated the margin at 58.3% on a consolidated basis and 63.9% excluding that business, with the transaction expected to be neutral to adjusted earnings per share.

What are the main risks to monitor for SMTC stock?

Management explained that secured production capacity may not be sufficient for the second half of fiscal 2028, requiring additional test equipment, manufacturing partners, and capacity. Trailing-twelve-month net income in fiscal 2027 also remained negative at $33.2 million, despite strong adjusted earnings and cash flows in Q2. In addition, high-end consumer sales declined 5% year over year to $39 million, while more than 500 basis points of the expected structural margin improvement depends on completing the sale of the cellular modules business.