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Stocks
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
SMG

SMG The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company · NYSE
Market Closed
56.47
▲ ⁦+0.55%⁩ (+0.31)
Market Cap$3.3B
Beta1.83
52w Low52w High
52.0075.34
Last Week
⁦-5.84%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.01%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.29%⁩
Last Year
⁦-9.18%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall41
Weak — below market medianContrarianF 7/9Grey zoneBetter than 41% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
67
47.1x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
21
1.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
82
12.8%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
40
5.1x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
37
4.68%▲2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
36
6.3%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
39
6▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$56
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$78
⁦+37%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$75–$79⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$4.76
⁦-92%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.5⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$4.76–$78⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$77.25
⁦+36.8%⁩
Current Price $56.47·Median $77.50
Low
$75.00
High
$79.00
Current price
$56.47
Average target
$77.25
Street summary

Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Stock Price Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

SMG stock has seen a notable improvement in analyst outlooks over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising by 6.92% to reach $77.25, compared to $72.25 at the beginning of July 2026. This adjustment reflects growing optimism despite steady qualitative ratings from institutions such as Wells Fargo, which maintained an (Overweight) rating, and UBS, which continued with a (Neutral) rating. Analyst dispersion appears quite narrow, with targets ranging between $75 and $79, indicating a strong consensus on the stock's fair value.

As of 2026-08-06
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.71
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
57%
Mixed
Target dispersion
7%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
3
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.75 → 3.71
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-30
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-08
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    47.06x
    4.94x39.51x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    11.76x
    3.70x29.59x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.94x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    8.0%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    1.6%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    42.9%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    32.0%
    7.6%58.9%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    12.8%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.11x
    0.22x3.72x
    High debt
  • Dividend Yield
    4.7%
    0.2%5.5%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    208.9%
    4.7%147.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    2.34
    -11.4212.56
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company operates in lawn and garden care and pest control products, generating revenue from a portfolio of brands such as Scotts, Miracle-Gro, Ortho, and Roundup, alongside soil, seed, and fertilizer products. The SMG 2.0 strategy focuses on increasing the share of branded, higher-margin products, accelerating innovation, expanding e-commerce, eliminating underperforming units, and achieving savings through automation and artificial intelligence.

In Q3 fiscal 2026, according to EDGAR data, the company reported revenue of $1.2 billion, gross profit of $365.9 million, net income of $112.2 million, and earnings per share of $1.90. These figures equate to a gross margin of approximately 30.5% and a net income margin of approximately 9.4%, while the July 29, 2026 call clarified that exact net sales were $1.17 billion, up 1% year over year, and that the GAAP gross margin was 31.2% versus 32.1% in the comparable quarter.

During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, the company's revenue increased 2% to $2.99 billion, with the U.S. Consumer business contributing approximately $2.74 billion, or nearly 92% of the total. Revenue for the twelve months ended Q3 fiscal 2026 was approximately $3.4 billion, with gross profit of $1.1 billion and net income of $110.8 million; the difference between annual net income and the strong profit in Q2 and Q3 highlights the seasonality of the business and the impact of the $125 million loss in Q1 fiscal 2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Branded product sales increased 4.5% during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, despite the deliberate exit from approximately $100 million of low-margin commodity mulch and soil sales; Ortho pest control sales also grew 15%, Scotts grass seed sales 11%, and soil sales 7%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Fiscal 2026 innovations generated gross sales of $75 million before accounting for cannibalization of existing units, while innovations launched during the three years ended June 2026 generated approximately $278 million. Growth-driving products included Miracle-Gro organic, Scotts Kentucky 31, Turf Builder Lawn Food, and Ortho Mosquito Kill and Prevent.
  • E-commerce point-of-sale sales increased 27% during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, and the channel came to represent 13% of total point-of-sale sales, up 300 basis points from the prior year. The company increased digital channels' share of the media spending mix to 80% in fiscal 2026, versus 68% in fiscal 2025.
  • The GAAP gross margin improved by 130 basis points to 35.7% during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, supported by the branded product mix, supply chain savings, and pricing. Management expects net supply chain savings to reach approximately 1% of sales by the end of fiscal 2026, with continued margin expansion in fiscal 2027 through pricing, cost reductions, and mix improvement.
  • The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance from continuing operations to a range of $4.30–$4.45, from $4.15–$4.35, and reaffirmed low-single-digit annual sales growth. Leverage also improved to 3.78 times in Q3 fiscal 2026 from 4.15 times a year earlier, while quarterly interest expense declined to $28 million from $31.8 million.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The shift from approximately $100 million of low-margin commodity sales to branded products demonstrates better growth and higher revenue quality; branded sales increased 4.5% during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, and the year-to-date gross margin improved by 130 basis points.
    • +E-commerce provides a tangible expansion driver, as point-of-sale sales through the channel increased 27% and came to represent 13% of the total, while digital product launches give the company a way to test demand before expanding distribution in stores.
    • +Balance sheet improvement supports the company's flexibility, with leverage declining from 4.15 times to 3.78 times year over year and interest expense during the first nine months of fiscal 2026 falling to $86.5 million from $102.2 million.
    • +The increase in fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $4.30–$4.45, alongside approximately 16% growth in adjusted earnings during the first nine months to $390.2 million, indicates that mix improvement and savings are offsetting a significant portion of freight and commodity pressures.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Retailer inventories entering Q4 fiscal 2026 were up by a high-single-digit percentage from the prior year, and management expects retailer purchases to slow and U.S. Consumer business growth to move toward the low end of the guidance range; this creates a direct risk to sales and cash flows if sell-through does not improve.
    • −The GAAP gross margin declined to 31.2% in Q3 fiscal 2026 from 32.1%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell to $246.3 million from $253.5 million due to higher freight and commodity costs. The company estimated that commodity costs would be approximately $15 million above its original fiscal 2026 plan, while diesel and freight costs remained volatile during discussions of the fiscal 2027 plan.
    • −Overall growth remains limited despite strength in some categories, as Q3 fiscal 2026 sales increased only 1%, and sales for the first nine months increased 2%, versus a previous target of sustainable 3% growth. The exit from commodity sales, despite benefiting margins, also pressures revenue growth in the short term.
    • −Management reassessed the timeline for its targets of increasing net sales by $1 billion and reaching $1 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, stating that its focus on earnings quality could push their achievement beyond 2030. This increases execution risk because the success of SMG 2.0 depends on continued innovation, digital expansion, and margin improvement for more years than under the previous timeframe.
    • −The average analyst target of $77.25 is only approximately 2.5% above the top of the 52-week range of $75.34, with a narrow target range between $75 and $79. The consensus valuation therefore assumes the stock will surpass its 52-week high despite low revenue growth and quarterly margin pressure, leaving limited room for execution disappointment.
    • −Net insider activity during the three months ended August 10, 2026 consisted of $2.2 million in sales across four transactions and no purchases, which is a secondary signal rather than independent evidence of business deterioration. The insider sales may have been prearranged, and the context provides no evidence to the contrary.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus rates SMG shares a "Buy," with an average target of $77.25 and a narrow range between $75 and $79; the average is approximately 2.5% above the upper end of the 52-week range of $75.34, while the lower end of the range is $52. The data does not provide a published price-to-earnings ratio that can be reliably used, so the consensus valuation is based on improvements in adjusted earnings and margins and reduced leverage, balanced against slow revenue growth, pressure from freight and commodity costs, and the delayed timeline for long-term targets.

    BuyAnalyst target: $77.25(+36.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove SMG's results in Q3 fiscal 2026?

    According to EDGAR, the company reported revenue of $1.2 billion, gross profit of $365.9 million, and net income of $112.2 million in Q3 fiscal 2026. The July 29, 2026 call clarified that net sales grew 1% to $1.17 billion, supported by an increase in branded products. In contrast, freight and commodity costs reduced the GAAP gross margin to 31.2% from 32.1%, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization declined to $246.3 million.

    How is the company executing the SMG 2.0 strategy?

    SMG 2.0 relies on optimizing the product portfolio, accelerating innovation, expanding e-commerce, and increasing efficiency through technology, automation, and artificial intelligence. In fiscal 2026, the company exited approximately $100 million of low-margin commodity mulch and soil sales and is targeting the elimination of approximately 30% of the lowest-performing units by the end of fiscal 2027, having completed nearly two-thirds of this target as of July 29, 2026. Fiscal 2026 innovations, including Scotts Kentucky 31, Turf Builder Lawn Food, and Ortho Mosquito Kill and Prevent, generated gross sales of $75 million before accounting for cannibalization of existing products.

    Is e-commerce an important growth driver for SMG shares?

    E-commerce point-of-sale sales increased 27% during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, with growth in every category and across every customer included in the company's data. E-commerce came to represent 13% of total point-of-sale sales, up 300 basis points from the prior year. The company uses the channel to launch products such as Ortho Mosquito Kill and Prevent and test demand digitally before expanding distribution in retail stores.

    What are the main operating risks in fiscal 2026?

    The company entered Q4 fiscal 2026 with retailer inventories up by a high-single-digit percentage from the prior year, following weather-related weakness in May 2026, and therefore expected purchases to slow. The projected increase in commodity costs above the original plan also reached approximately $15 million for fiscal 2026, most of which appeared in Q3. Despite hedging and securing most of the cost of goods through the end of fiscal 2026, diesel and freight costs and pricing discussions with retailers remained important factors for the fiscal 2027 plan.

    How did SMG's profitability and debt levels change during fiscal 2026?

    Adjusted net income from continuing operations was $390.2 million, or $6.60 per share, during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, versus $336.9 million and $5.75 per share in the comparable period. The company raised its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings per share guidance to $4.30–$4.45 from $4.15–$4.35. Leverage in Q3 fiscal 2026 also declined to 3.78 times from 4.15 times a year earlier, and year-to-date interest expense fell to $86.5 million from $102.2 million.

    What do the analyst consensus and insider activity indicate about SMG's valuation?

    The analyst consensus rates the shares a "Buy," with an average target of $77.25 and targets ranging between $75 and $79. The average target is approximately 2.5% above the top of the 52-week range of $75.34, and the data does not include a published price-to-earnings ratio to provide an additional valuation anchor. Regarding insiders, net sales totaled $2.2 million across four transactions during the three months ended August 10, 2026, with no purchases, but these sales may have been prearranged and are not sufficient on their own to form an investment judgment.