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Stocks
Sirius XM Holdings Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall95
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9DistressBetter than 95% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
90
11.7x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
38
0.4%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
71
6.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
51
4.3x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
77
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
87
28.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
87
10▲3Top tier
SIRI

SIRI Sirius XM Holdings Inc.

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
29.15
▲ ⁦+0.95%⁩ (+0.28)
Market Cap$9.8B
Beta0.96
52w Low52w High
19.7731.78
Last Week
⁦-1.85%⁩
Last Month
⁦+1.29%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.32%⁩
Last Year
⁦+23.31%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$29
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$32
⁦+10%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$28–$45⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$39
⁦+34%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.6⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$32–$39⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$34.14
⁦+17.1%⁩
Current Price $29.15·Median $32.00
Low
$28.00
High
$45.00
Current price
$29.15
Average target
$34.14
Street summary

Higher Average Price Target Amid Divergent Ratings

The average price target remained unchanged over the last day and seven days, staying at 34.14 with five analysts. Over 30 days, the average rose from 32.33 to 34.14, an increase of 1.81 or 5.6%, with no change in the number of analysts. The current range is between 28 and 45, while the median is 32, reflecting a clear divergence among estimates compared with the current price of 28.54.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+5.6%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.07
Hold
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
29%
Rating activity · 30d
4↑ · 3↓
Target dispersion
58%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
1
3
7
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.13 → 3.07
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-02
    TD Cowen
    Hold
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-02
    William Blair
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-02
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.71x
    4.21x33.71x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.94x
    3.09x24.70x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.64x
    2.57x20.60x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    15.8%
    -33.4%21.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    0.4%
    -16.2%48.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    139.2%
    -464.8%138.2%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    52.8%
    11.3%77.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    6.3%
    -33.6%17.7%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.26x
    0.60x5.67x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.46
    -8.274.77
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Sirius XM Holdings operates a paid and ad-supported audio ecosystem that combines SiriusXM subscriptions in vehicles and through the app with Pandora and off-platform advertising businesses. Most revenue comes from subscriptions; in Q2 fiscal 2026, subscription revenue was $1.6 billion out of total revenue of approximately $2.2 billion, while advertising revenue was $454 million. The company differentiates its service through exclusive content, music, sports, news, and podcasts, as well as the in-vehicle 360L experience and its satellite network.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, consolidated revenue increased 1% year over year to approximately $2.2 billion, gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $1.1 billion, net income was $239 million, and diluted earnings per share were $0.70. Net income increased 17% and diluted earnings per share rose 23%, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew 3% to $691 million, with its margin expanding by one percentage point to 32%. Free cash flow also jumped 48% to $593 million, supported by improved profitability, lower cash taxes, and the timing of vendor payments and capital expenditures.

At the segment level in Q2 fiscal 2026, the SiriusXM segment recorded revenue of $1.6 billion and gross profit of $981 million at a 61% margin, while revenue from Pandora and off-platform businesses increased 4% to $543 million and gross profit rose 6% to $163 million at a margin of approximately 30%. Revenue for the reported twelve-month period within the 2026 data was approximately $8.6 billion, with gross profit of $4.5 billion and net income of $880 million, compared with revenue of $8.6 billion and net income of $805 million in fiscal 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance by $25 million for each of revenue, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and free cash flow, bringing the respective forecasts to approximately $8.525 billion, $2.625 billion, and $1.375 billion.
  • Net self-pay subscribers returned to growth in Q2 fiscal 2026 with the addition of 22 thousand subscribers, the best second-quarter performance in four years and an improvement of 90 thousand from the comparable period. Bundled plans contributed 123 thousand additions, while churn declined to approximately 1.4%, the lowest in SiriusXM's history, and average revenue per user increased 1% to $15.32.
  • Advertising revenue grew 5% to $454 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, driven by 30% growth in podcast revenue, 29% growth in programmatic advertising, and 20% growth in technology fees. The YouTube partnership aims to expand reach to 255 million monthly active users, but management does not expect a material financial contribution from it during the remainder of fiscal 2026 or the first half of fiscal 2027, with the opportunity expected to become larger in the second half of fiscal 2027.
  • Streaming sports listening increased 14% year over year, and the company launched Sports Pass for $5 and added local sports talk stations from 22 markets through an agreement with Odyssey. During FIFA World Cup 2026, more than 6% of self-pay and trial streaming users listened to the coverage, while listenership for the final reached 11%.
  • The company achieved $74 million of its $100 million target for additional gross savings in fiscal 2026, split between $48 million in operating expenses and $26 million in capital expenditures. It reduced total debt by $292 million during the quarter, bringing net leverage to 3.4 times, with approximately $996 million remaining under the share repurchase authorization.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The operating improvement combines growth in revenue, profitability, and cash; revenue increased 1%, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 3%, net income increased 17%, and free cash flow grew 48% in Q2 fiscal 2026, allowing the company to raise annual guidance for the three key metrics.
  • +Subscription economics have become more resilient, with churn reaching 1.4% and average revenue per user rising to $15.32, alongside the first positive net additions in the second quarter and the strongest performance in four years. More than 80% of bundled-plan users also reported that the plans increase the value of the subscription, and more than three-quarters said they increase the likelihood that they will remain subscribers.
  • +The advertising business provides a faster growth driver than subscriptions; revenue from Pandora and off-platform businesses increased 4%, while podcast revenue grew 30%, programmatic advertising 29%, and technology fees 20% in Q2 fiscal 2026. The YouTube opportunity benefits from an established sales and advertising technology platform, supporting management's expectation of healthy contribution margins as adoption expands.
  • +Reaching net leverage of 3.4 times gives the company greater flexibility to allocate cash flow after reducing debt by $292 million and returning approximately $97 million to shareholders through dividends and repurchases during the quarter. Management indicated that share repurchases will become a more significant use of excess cash, with approximately $996 million remaining under the authorization.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $32.33, within a range of $28 to $36, with a consensus rating of Buy; the average is very close to the top of the 52-week range of $32.66, compared with a low of $19.77. No reported price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data, so the valuation assessment relies more heavily on analyst targets and the company's ability to achieve its fiscal 2026 guidance of $8.525 billion in revenue and $1.375 billion in free cash flow. The $8 spread in targets continues to reflect differing estimates regarding slowing subscriber additions, memory cost pressures, and the timing of the YouTube contribution.

BuyAnalyst target: $32.33(+10.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were SIRI's key results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Consolidated revenue was approximately $2.2 billion, up 1% year over year, and net income was $239 million. Diluted earnings per share increased 23% to $0.70, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew 3% to $691 million at a 32% margin. Free cash flow also increased 48% to $593 million, and gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $1.1 billion.

Did SiriusXM's subscriber count return to growth?

The company added 22 thousand net self-pay subscribers in Q2 fiscal 2026, its best second-quarter performance in four years and an improvement of 90 thousand from the comparable period. Bundled plans contributed 123 thousand additions, while the continuity service and extended vehicle dealer programs helped offset a slight decline in conversion rates. However, management still expects fiscal 2026 self-pay additions to be slightly below the prior year due to the maturation of these initiatives and reduced discounting.

How important are the advertising and podcast businesses to SIRI stock?

Advertising revenue was $454 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, up 5%, while the Pandora and off-platform businesses segment recorded revenue of $543 million. Podcast revenue grew 30%, programmatic advertising 29%, and technology fees 20%, making advertising a faster-growing driver than subscriptions. Conversely, these gains partially offset weakness in music streaming advertising, so continued momentum depends on broader sales and improved pricing without worsening weakness in other categories.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The subscriber base remains exposed to a slowdown despite the quarterly improvement; management still expects fiscal 2026 self-pay subscriber additions to be slightly below the prior year. It also expects the contribution from bundled plans to decline after they added 123 thousand subscriptions in Q2 fiscal 2026, while retention comparisons become more difficult one year after the launch of the continuity service, alongside reductions in discounts and promotions.
  • −Revenue depends heavily on subscriptions, which accounted for $1.6 billion of the approximately $2.2 billion total in Q2 fiscal 2026. Therefore, weaker trial conversions or softness in the automotive market and consumer confidence noted by management could affect the largest financial driver even as advertising grows.
  • −Higher memory costs are pressuring the equipment business; equipment revenue declined 22% to $36 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, negatively affecting revenue and margins. Management explained that memory suppliers raised prices several times over nine months and that the impact will be greater in the second half of fiscal 2026, despite being incorporated into the raised guidance.
  • −Not all advertising components are strong; growth in podcasts, programmatic advertising, and technology fees partially offset weakness in music streaming advertising, while the discussion also highlighted declines in news advertising and advertiser sensitivity to adjacency with news content. Continued weakness could limit the segment's ability to benefit from growing demand for podcasts and sports.
  • −The YouTube partnership carries execution and timing risks because the company does not expect a material financial contribution during the remainder of fiscal 2026 or the first half of fiscal 2027, and it has not yet quantified the financial opportunity. Achieving a larger contribution in the second half of fiscal 2027 requires proving measurement, expanding advertiser adoption, and adding employees methodically.
  • −The potential value of the spectrum depends on unresolved partnerships and technological and regulatory developments; the 35 megahertz of contiguous spectrum currently supports service delivery to 35 million subscribers in the United States and Canada. Its current operational use means that extracting additional value from it must preserve network flexibility and service continuity, making the timing and value of monetization uncertain.
When could the SiriusXM agreement with YouTube begin contributing?

Management said on the July 30, 2026 call that it does not expect a material financial contribution from the agreement during the remainder of fiscal 2026 or the first half of fiscal 2027. It expects the revenue and profit opportunity to become larger in the second half of fiscal 2027 as advertiser adoption expands. The opportunity is based on a stated reach of 255 million monthly active users and SiriusXM's use of its existing sales platform, advertising technology, and campaign operations.

How do sports and exclusive content support SIRI's subscription economics?

Streaming sports listening increased 14% year over year, and the company launched Sports Pass for $5 and added local sports talk from 22 markets through Odyssey. The company also plans to produce more than 400 events during fiscal 2026 totaling more than 2,000 hours of original programming, and 95% of attendees at exclusive events said the experience increases the value of a SiriusXM subscription. In terms of usage, connected-vehicle system subscribers listen for approximately 24 hours per month, while engagement among those who also use the SiriusXM app exceeds twice that level.

What is SiriusXM's financial guidance for fiscal 2026?

On July 30, 2026, the company raised its revenue, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and free cash flow guidance by $25 million for each metric. It now expects revenue of approximately $8.525 billion, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $2.625 billion, and free cash flow of $1.375 billion. These forecasts include a greater impact from higher memory costs in the second half of fiscal 2026, alongside continued strength in subscriptions and advertising.