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Stocks
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional
SID

SID Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional · NYSE
Market Closed
1.27
▼ ⁦-7.97%⁩ (-0.11)
Market Cap$1.7B
Beta1.53
52w Low52w High
0.862.20
Last Week
⁦+8.55%⁩
Last Month
⁦+36.75%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.62%⁩
Last Year
⁦-6.62%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall4
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketValue TrapF 5/9Better than 4% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
70
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
23
-1.5%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
34
7.2%▲4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
24
6.1x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
5
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
31
-30.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
2
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$1.27
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$1.40
⁦+10%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$1.40–$1.40⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$1.40
⁦+10.2%⁩
Current Price $1.27·Median $1.40
Low
$1.40
High
$1.40
Street summary

SID Price Targets Stabilize Amid Negative Profitability Outlook

SID stock shows a state of complete stagnation in analyst estimates, with the consensus price target remaining stable at $1.4 over the past 30 days without any adjustment. This consistency, coupled with the lack of dispersion between the high and low targets ($1.4 for all analysts), reflects a unified and cautious view from the five analysts, despite the gap between the current price of $1.03 and the stated target.

As of 2026-08-24
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.25
Sell
Analyst coverage
4
Buy conviction
0%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time4 analysts rating
2
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.25 → 2.25
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    HSBC
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2025-12-15
    UBS
    Sell· $1.40
  • ⬇ Downgrade2024-04-09
    Bank of America Securities
    BuyUnderperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.86x
    2.62x20.92x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -69.3%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Weak
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -1.5%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -13.2%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    27.1%
    7.6%58.9%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    7.2%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    6.10x
    0.22x3.72x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-13 data

Company Overview

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional operates through an integrated industrial portfolio spanning steel, mining, cement, logistics services, and energy. Operating income comes from selling steel products within and outside Brazil, producing and selling iron ore, selling cement through 24 distribution centers and a base of 32 thousand customers, as well as freight transportation and power generation. This diversification reduces the dependence of results on a single sector, as improvements in steel, cement, and logistics services in Q2 FY2026 offset the pressures faced by mining.

In FY2024, revenue declined to $43.7 billion from $45.4 billion in FY2023, while gross profit reached $11.7 billion versus $12.0 billion. These figures represent a gross profit margin of approximately 26.8% in FY2024, but the net result turned into a loss of $1.5 billion and negative earnings per share of 1.9545, compared with net income of $402.6 million in FY2023. The longer-term trajectory shows a significant decline from FY2021, when the company recorded revenue of $47.9 billion and net income of $13.6 billion.

In Q2 FY2026, consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 5% both quarter over quarter and year over year, and free cash flow reached BRL 808 million after several negative quarters. Steel sales increased 17% quarter over quarter and the segment margin returned to 10.5%, while the mining margin exceeded 30% despite higher freight costs and foreign exchange effects. Cement recorded earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization exceeding BRL 420 million at a margin above 30%, and logistics services maintained a margin above 45%, but leverage increased from 3.36 times to 3.49 times.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Anti-dumping measures implemented in March 2026 supported the steel recovery; segment sales increased 17% in Q2 FY2026, domestic sales grew 10% year over year, while overseas market sales reached their highest volume since Q1 FY2023.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • An improved mix of higher-value steel products supports profitability; management estimated the gross margin for pre-painted products at between BRL 1,000 and BRL 1,200 per ton, and at more than BRL 2,000 per ton for tinplate, compared with approximately BRL 400 per ton for the BQ product.
  • On August 13, 2026, management guided that the steel margin could rise from 10.5% in Q2 FY2026 to a range of 15%–17% during H2 FY2026, supported by higher volumes, an improved mix, and a 5%–7% price adjustment in September 2026.
  • Cement achieved a second consecutive quarterly record, with revenue growing 14% quarter over quarter and 10% year over year and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization exceeding BRL 420 million. Management attributed this to demand linked to the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program, infrastructure projects, and a strategy of prioritizing value over volume.
  • Inventory reductions could provide a meaningful cash boost; the company generated free cash flow of BRL 808 million in Q2 FY2026, and management estimated the potential to release an additional BRL 1 billion by the end of FY2026 if its targets for reducing inventories of raw materials, products, and maintenance parts are achieved.
  • The sale of cement assets and a stake of between 20% and 30% in the infrastructure business is central to the deleveraging plan. The company had received binding bids for cement by August 13, 2026, and set the end of August 2026 as the deadline for receiving non-binding bids for infrastructure, without announcing a buyer or final value for either transaction.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The steel, mining, cement, logistics services, and energy portfolio gives the company a proven ability to offset weakness in one segment; in Q2 FY2026, consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 5% despite a 20% quarter-over-quarter decline in the mining unit's revenue per ton.
    • +The steel recovery is supported by volumes, mix, and pricing, rather than by a single factor; sales increased 17% quarter over quarter, the margin returned to 10.5%, and management is targeting a range between 15% and 17% during H2 FY2026.
    • +Cement and logistics services provide two high-margin sources, with a margin above 30% for cement and above 45% for logistics services in Q2 FY2026. Cement also recorded a second consecutive record for earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization despite maintenance work.
    • +Deleveraging could combine the release of working capital, asset sales, and extended maturities; free cash flow reached BRL 808 million, management expects to release an additional BRL 1 billion by the end of FY2026, and the company moved more than $1 billion of January 2028 maturities to a later schedule.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Debt remains the most prominent financial risk; leverage increased from 3.36 times to 3.49 times in Q2 FY2026 due to the amortization of iron ore prepayment contracts, foreign exchange effects, and BRL 500 million in financing for the Transnordestina project. The remediation plan partly depends on asset-sale transactions that had not closed as of August 13, 2026.
    • −The annual financial statements reveal a sharp deterioration in profitability; the result shifted from net income of $2.2 billion in FY2022 to $402.6 million in FY2023, then to a loss of $1.5 billion in FY2024. FY2024 revenue also declined by approximately 3.7% to $43.7 billion.
    • −Mining is exposed to volatility in freight costs, currencies, and iron ore prices; unit revenue fell to $18 per ton in Q2 FY2026, 20% below the previous quarter, amid pressure from higher freight costs and geopolitical tensions. Although the segment margin remained above 30%, its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization declined from the previous quarter.
    • −A significant part of the steel recovery depends on continued trade protection, while management described Asian imports and potential circumvention through Vietnam and Korea as concerns. Any delay or weakness in anti-dumping measures could limit the recovery of domestic market share and the company's ability to implement its targeted price increases.
    • −Energy results in Q2 FY2026 include a non-recurring effect from the retroactive recognition of revenue from the Jacui hydroelectric plant, which has been commercially idle since October 2025. Management explained that energy results will return to normal levels following this recognition, so the quarter's record performance should not be fully extrapolated to subsequent periods.
    • −The analyst consensus is Sell, and the average price target of $1.4 equals both the highest and lowest target, meaning there is no diverse range of available estimates. A positive price-to-earnings ratio is also unavailable due to losses, and the consensus target is approximately 36% below the 52-week range high of $2.2, reflecting a reassessment linked to the loss, leverage, and execution risks.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus for SID stock is Sell, with an average target of $1.4 and both the highest and lowest targets matching at the same level; this target falls within the 52-week range of $0.84–$2.2 and is approximately 36% below its high. A positive price-to-earnings ratio is unavailable given the FY2024 loss of $1.5 billion and negative earnings per share, so the valuation is tied more to the company's ability to restore profitability and reduce leverage than to currently stable earnings.

    SellAnalyst target: $1.4(+10.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving the recovery of SID's steel business in FY2026?

    Steel benefited from anti-dumping measures implemented in March 2026 and reduced import pressure on domestic producers. Segment sales increased 17% quarter over quarter in Q2 FY2026, and domestic sales grew 10% year over year, while overseas sales reached their highest level since Q1 FY2023. The segment margin returned to 10.5%, and on August 13, 2026, management guided to a potential range between 15% and 17% during H2 FY2026.

    Has Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional returned to generating positive free cash flow?

    The company recorded positive free cash flow of BRL 808 million in Q2 FY2026 after several negative quarters. The improvement came mainly from the release of working capital and financing raised, and helped absorb debt amortization and prepayment contracts. Management estimated the potential to release an additional BRL 1 billion by the end of FY2026 by reducing inventories of raw materials, products, and maintenance parts.

    How important is the cement business to SID's results and deleveraging plan?

    Cement revenue grew 14% quarter over quarter and 10% year over year in Q2 FY2026, and earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization exceeded BRL 420 million at a margin above 30%. The operation serves 32 thousand customers through 24 distribution centers and benefited from the Minha Casa, Minha Vida program and infrastructure projects. The company had received binding bids for the sale of the cement asset by August 13, 2026, but as of that date had not announced the buyer, final value, or transaction terms.

    What are the main debt risks for SID?

    Leverage increased from 3.36 times to 3.49 times in Q2 FY2026, despite free cash flow returning to positive territory. The company moved more than $1 billion of January 2028 maturities to later dates, but it still depends on improving cash flow and selling assets to reduce debt. The P15 project also requires remaining capital expenditure of BRL 4 billion, with completion targeted by the end of 2027, production ramp-up beginning in 2028, and full operation reached in 2029.

    Why did mining results decline in Q2 FY2026?

    The mine was shut down for 15 days for scheduled work, and the production or sales volume cited in the presentation declined by 5.5%. Higher freight costs and foreign exchange effects also pressured unit revenue, which reached $18 per ton and declined 20% from the previous quarter. Nevertheless, the segment recorded the fourth-best sales result in its history and maintained an earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin above 30%.

    Why is the analyst consensus for SID stock Sell?

    The average price target is $1.4, which is also the highest and lowest available target, compared with a 52-week range between $0.84 and $2.2. A positive price-to-earnings ratio is unavailable, as the company recorded a net loss of $1.5 billion and negative earnings per share of 1.9545 in FY2024. Leverage of 3.49 times, mining pressures, and the dependence of debt reduction on completing asset sales add execution risks that explain the cautious consensus.