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Stocks
Steven Madden, Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall89
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9SafeBetter than 89% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
61
21.5x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
63
18.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
83
11.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
83
1.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
54
1.95%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
73
64.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
38
5▲3Bottom tier
SHOO

SHOO Steven Madden, Ltd.

Steven Madden, Ltd. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
42.93
▲ ⁦+3.30%⁩ (+1.37)
Market Cap$3.1B
Beta1.17
52w Low52w High
28.5549.70
Last Week
⁦+2.24%⁩
Last Month
⁦-11.63%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-0.58%⁩
Last Year
⁦+47.12%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$43
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$56
⁦+29%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$45–$60⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$41
⁦-5%⁩
Sees it fairly priced
⁦9.6⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$41–$56⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$54.67
⁦+27.3%⁩
Current Price $42.93·Median $55.50
Low
$45.00
High
$60.00
Current price
$42.93
Average target
$54.67
Street summary

Limited Improvement in SHOO Price Targets Amid Continued Divergence

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target rose from 52 to 54.67 over the last 7 days, an increase of 5.13%, and remained at this level over the last day. With the current price at 43.46, the consensus indicates implied upside of approximately 25.8%. However, the target range of 45 to 60, with a median of 55.5, reflects notable divergence between only two analysts.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+5.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
9
Buy conviction
78%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
35%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time9 analysts rating
3
4
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-31
    UBS
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    21.46x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    18.34x
    3.79x30.29x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    14.18x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    7.1%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    18.2%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    57.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    46.0%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    11.9%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.16x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.1%5.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    41.4%
    8.9%99.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    5.74
    -2.656.14
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-30 data

Company Overview

Steven Madden, Ltd. designs, markets, and sells footwear, handbags, accessories, and apparel through brands including Steve Madden, Kurt Geiger London, and Dolce Vita, generating revenue from two primary channels: wholesale and direct-to-consumer. In fiscal Q2 2026, wholesale revenue was $407.5 million, including $240 million from footwear and $167.5 million from accessories and apparel, while direct-to-consumer revenue was $255.4 million, and licensing royalties added $3 million. The company ended the quarter with a network of 382 directly operated stores, including 92 outlets, in addition to 8 e-commerce sites and 164 points of sale operated in international markets.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue rose 19.1% to $665.9 million, or 11.2% excluding Kurt Geiger, with wholesale growing 13% and direct-to-consumer growing 30.6%. Adjusted gross margin increased to 46.5% from 41.9%, supported by higher average selling prices, reduced promotional activity, and a lower tariff impact, while wholesale margin was 35.2% and direct-to-consumer margin was 64%. According to EDGAR data, gross profit was $309.7 million, net income was $27.7 million, and earnings per share were $0.38, while the adjusted results discussed by management showed net income of $31.7 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.44.

Trailing twelve-month revenue for 2026 was approximately $2.7 billion, gross profit was $1.3 billion, net income was $147.6 million, and earnings per share were approximately $2.05. By comparison, fiscal 2025 recorded revenue of $2.5 billion, gross profit of $1 billion, and net income of $49 million. The company also ended June 30, 2026, with cash and cash equivalents of $94.7 million and debt of $124.8 million, resulting in net debt of $30.1 million, after using refunds related to the reversal of IEEPA tariffs to reduce debt.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to revenue growth of between 11% and 13%, from 10% to 12%, and diluted earnings per share of between $2.05 and $2.15, from $2.00 to $2.10; it explained that the higher revenue outlook reflects an improved view of periods following fiscal Q2 2026, rather than merely the quarter's results exceeding expectations.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The Steve Madden brand gained clear momentum in fiscal Q2 2026; global searches for it increased 71%, and its global comparable-store sales rose 9%, including growth of 17% in the United States. Management raised its fiscal 2026 revenue growth outlook for the brand to a high-single-digit rate.
  • Direct-to-consumer revenue grew 30.6% to $255.4 million in fiscal Q2 2026, or 11.1% excluding Kurt Geiger, with double-digit growth in stores and e-commerce. In the United States, comparable full-price store sales rose 16%, e-commerce increased 20%, and outlets grew 12% after declining 1% in fiscal Q1 2026.
  • Kurt Geiger's seven full-price stores in the United States achieved comparable-sales growth of 12% during fiscal Q2 2026. In stores offering the Kensington handbag customization service, the service generated 17% of handbag sales, while management maintained its outlook for comparable Kurt Geiger revenue growth in the mid-teens during fiscal 2026.
  • The branded wholesale business grew 20% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026, supported by reorders and chasing best-selling products. Steve Madden handbag sales also rose approximately 30% across channels, and management expects double-digit growth for this category during fiscal 2026, while raising its Dolce Vita growth outlook to a high-single-digit to low-double-digit rate.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The company combines strong organic growth with Kurt Geiger's contribution; fiscal Q2 2026 revenue increased 19.1% overall and 11.2% even after excluding the acquired brand, indicating that expansion did not depend on the acquisition alone.
    • +Operating profitability improved clearly in fiscal Q2 2026, as adjusted gross margin rose 460 basis points to 46.5%, adjusted operating income increased to $44.5 million from $22.6 million, and operating margin rose to 6.7% from 4%.
    • +Consumer response to Steve Madden, Dolce Vita, and Kurt Geiger collections supports the company's ability to raise prices and reduce promotional activity; direct-to-consumer margin increased to 64% from 61.3%, and wholesale margin rose to 35.2% from 30.9% in fiscal Q2 2026.
    • +Inventory declined 13.7% to $377.2 million on June 30, 2026, despite revenue growth, with Kurt Geiger inventory down 30%. Net debt was also reduced to $30.1 million, and the board of directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share, payable on September 24, 2026, to shareholders of record on September 11, 2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The private-label business remains a material weakness; its decline offset part of the strong growth in wholesale footwear and accessories during fiscal Q2 2026, and management expects it to decline at a mid- to high-teens rate during fiscal 2026, compared with high-single-digit growth for the branded business.
    • −Steve Madden's performance depends on quickly identifying fashion trends that management said are moving faster than ever, increasing the risk of markdowns or weak demand if the collections miss the mark. Sandals, the most seasonal category, were the largest declining category during the fiscal 2026 spring season, despite strength in year-round categories.
    • −Management expects consolidated revenue growth to slow during the second half of fiscal 2026 after the anniversary of the Kurt Geiger acquisition in May 2026, eliminating its inorganic contribution to the growth rate. It also expects fiscal Q3 2026 to contribute more to second-half revenue and earnings than fiscal Q4 2026, contrary to the exceptional pattern recorded in fiscal 2025.
    • −Management expects gross margin to continue improving year over year in each quarter of the second half of fiscal 2026, but at a much slower pace than in the first half as the Kurt Geiger mix effect fades and higher prices begin to be compared with prior-year levels. Operating expenses already rose to 39.8% of revenue in fiscal Q2 2026, from 37.9% a year earlier, due to the inclusion of Kurt Geiger for a full quarter and higher incentives.
    • −Shipping disruption related to the Middle East conflict added $0.06 of pressure to the fiscal 2026 second-half earnings-per-share outlook because of increased use of air freight to chase best-selling products and delays in ocean freight. In addition, the fiscal Q4 2026 outlook was based on an assumed tariff rate of 15%, with pending investigations covering excess production capacity in 16 countries and intellectual property violations related to Vietnam.
    • −The target valuation offers limited room for error compared with the nearby historical peak; the average analyst target of $52 is only approximately 4.6% above the 52-week range high of $49.70. The wide target range of $45 to $56 also reflects meaningful disagreement over how much growth and margin improvement can persist after Kurt Geiger's inorganic contribution fades.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $52 and a range of $45 to $56. The average target is above the 52-week range high of $49.70, but exceeds it by only approximately 4.6%, while the low target is below it; therefore, the valuation assumes continued organic growth and earnings improvement despite the slowdown in Kurt Geiger's contribution and shipping and tariff pressures.

    BuyAnalyst target: $52(+21.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove SHOO's growth in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Revenue rose 19.1% to $665.9 million, or 11.2% excluding Kurt Geiger, supported by the branded business and direct-to-consumer channels. Wholesale grew 13% to $407.5 million, while direct-to-consumer increased 30.6% to $255.4 million. The branded wholesale business recorded growth of 20%, while Steve Madden's global comparable sales rose 9% and global searches for the brand increased 71%.

    How did Kurt Geiger affect Steven Madden's results?

    Kurt Geiger helped raise the consolidated growth rate, but Steven Madden's revenue still grew 11.2% in fiscal Q2 2026 even after excluding it. The number of Kurt Geiger full-price stores in the United States reached seven after two stores opened in Tysons Corner and Dadeland, and these stores achieved comparable growth of 12%. The Kensington handbag customization service also generated 17% of handbag sales in stores offering it, and management expects mid-teens comparable revenue growth for the brand during fiscal 2026.

    What is management's outlook for fiscal 2026 revenue and earnings?

    Management expects revenue growth of between 11% and 13% in fiscal 2026, compared with its previous outlook of between 10% and 12%. It also raised its diluted earnings-per-share range to $2.05–$2.15 from $2.00–$2.10. This outlook includes an additional $0.06 per share of pressure in the second half of fiscal 2026 due to higher air freight costs and supply-chain disruption related to the Middle East conflict.

    Did Steven Madden's margins improve in fiscal Q2 2026?

    Adjusted gross margin rose to 46.5% from 41.9% in fiscal Q2 2026. Wholesale margin improved to 35.2% from 30.9%, and direct-to-consumer margin increased to 64% from 61.3%, supported by higher average selling prices and reduced promotional activity. Adjusted operating income rose to $44.5 million from $22.6 million, but management expects margin improvement in the second half of fiscal 2026 to be lower than in the first half.

    What are the main operating risks facing SHOO stock?

    Management expects the private-label business to decline at a mid- to high-teens rate in fiscal 2026, despite high-single-digit growth in the branded business. Shipping costs also added $0.06 per share of pressure to the second-half fiscal 2026 outlook, and the company based its fiscal Q4 2026 outlook on a tariff rate of 15%. In addition, management said fashion cycles are accelerating, making the success of collections and chasing best-selling products critical factors in avoiding increased markdowns.

    What does insider activity in SHOO indicate?

    Net insider sales during the three months ended August 5, 2026, were approximately $2.1 million, with ten sales and no purchases recorded. These data represent a weak trading signal on their own because insider sales may have been executed under prearranged plans, and the context does not specify whether those transactions were. They should therefore be considered alongside fiscal Q2 2026 revenue growth of 19.1% and the increase in the fiscal 2026 earnings-per-share outlook to $2.05–$2.15, rather than as independent evidence of a change in operating performance.