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Stocks
Somnigroup International Inc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall65
Strong — clearly above market medianFalling StarF 6/9Better than 65% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
48
26.2x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
85
27.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
78
8.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
45
5.0x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
71
0.96%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
17
-23.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
83
7▲3Top tier
SGI

SGI Somnigroup International Inc

Somnigroup International Inc · NYSE
Market Closed
66.76
▲ ⁦+0.98%⁩ (+0.65)
Market Cap$13.9B
Beta1.19
52w Low52w High
60.3998.56
Last Week
⁦-1.56%⁩
Last Month
⁦+2.31%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-1.79%⁩
Last Year
⁦-20.48%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$67
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$100
⁦+50%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$90–$102⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$29
⁦-56%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.7⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$29–$100⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$97.40
⁦+45.9%⁩
Current Price $66.76·Median $100.00
Low
$90.00
High
$102.00
Current price
$66.76
Average target
$97.40
Street summary

Slight Decline in Consensus with One Downgrade

Consensus stood at $97.4 among three analysts on September 10, 2026, unchanged over one day but down 1.45% over seven days from $98.83. Conversely, it rose 0.71% over 30 days from $96.71. The target range is between $90 and $102, with a median of $100, reflecting limited dispersion among three analysts while targets remain above the current price of $66.11.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.10
Buy
Analyst coverage
10
Buy conviction
90%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time10 analysts rating
2
7
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.10
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Piper Sandler
    Overweight
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-03
    Jefferies
    BuyHold
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    26.18x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    19.09x
    3.79x30.29x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    16.25x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.5%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    27.1%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Strong
  • EPS Growth YoY
    77.1%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    44.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    8.0%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.03x
    0.65x5.48x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.0%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    25.4%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Somnigroup International operates through an integrated model that combines the manufacturing and marketing of sleep products and mattresses with direct distribution and retail sales. Its portfolio includes Tempur-Pedic, Sealy, and Stearns & Foster, while Mattress Firm provides it with an extensive retail network in the United States, and Dreams and company-owned Tempur-Pedic stores expand its direct international presence. Revenue comes from wholesale sales to retailers, direct sales, and stores, while profitability benefits from integration across manufacturing, distribution, and joint advertising.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $1.8 billion, gross profit was $817.2 million, net income was $110.9 million, and reported earnings per share were $0.52. These figures represent a gross margin of approximately 45.4% and a net income margin of approximately 6.2%, while management reported record adjusted earnings per share of $0.58, up 9% from the comparable period. Mattress Firm sales were approximately $922 million, slightly more than half of consolidated revenue, with modest comparable-store sales growth.

Profitability trends varied clearly across the group's business units in Q2 fiscal 2026. The adjusted gross margin of the Tempur-Pedic Sealy North America business increased by 680 basis points to 61.8%, and its adjusted operating margin rose by 400 basis points to 26.7%, driven by synergies, operating efficiency, and mix; in contrast, Mattress Firm's adjusted gross margin declined by 240 basis points to 33.3% and its operating margin fell by 130 basis points to 6.5%, while the international operating margin also declined by 120 basis points to 12.4%. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in fiscal 2026, the latest EDGAR data indicate revenue of $7.6 billion and net income of $533.3 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its expectations for sales integration benefits after the share of Tempur Sealy brands within Mattress Firm exceeded estimates during the first half of fiscal 2026; it expects Tempur Sealy brands and private labels to account for a mid-sixties percentage of Mattress Firm sales, adding $65 million to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization compared with fiscal 2025.
  • The company achieved $30 million in net sales and cost synergy benefits in North America during Q2 fiscal 2026, including approximately $15 million from cost synergies. This was reflected in the expansion of North America's adjusted operating margin to 26.7% despite input cost inflation.
  • A three-month test of Kingsdown products in 200 Mattress Firm stores outperformed some other products, so the company plans to expand the assortment to approximately 800 stores across the United States during the six months following the August 6, 2026 call. This supports improvements to Mattress Firm's assortment and increases the presence of premium traditional innerspring mattresses.
  • The Stearns & Foster relaunch begins at the end of Q3 fiscal 2026 and continues through early 2027, with the number of higher-priced models increasing by more than 50%. The new assortment, featuring an enhanced cooling system, a stronger microcoil support layer, and new hybrid technology, is intended to raise the average selling price, but management expects most of the financial impact to emerge in 2027 and beyond.
  • Fiscal 2026 guidance targets revenue of approximately $7.6 billion at the midpoint, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $1.39 billion, and adjusted earnings per share of between $2.85 and $3.15. Management also expects low-single-digit comparable sales growth for Tempur Sealy in North America and in the international business, with earnings per share growth in both Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2026 and a greater concentration of growth in Q4.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Somnigroup has demonstrated its ability to expand manufacturing profitability even in a bedding market that management expects to contract by a mid-single-digit percentage during fiscal 2026; North America's adjusted gross margin rose by 680 basis points, and its operating margin increased by 400 basis points in Q2 fiscal 2026.
  • +Cash generation and debt reduction support capital flexibility; the company recorded record operating cash flow of $236 million and free cash flow of $182 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, and reduced net debt by more than $500 million during the twelve months ended that quarter. The leverage ratio returned to 2.99 times, within the target range of between two and three times, following the refinancing and extension of the credit facility's maturities to 2031.
  • +Vertical integration gives the group tools to improve mix and margins across Tempur-Pedic Sealy and Mattress Firm; management expects the increased share of Tempur Sealy brands and private labels within Mattress Firm to generate an additional $65 million benefit in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization during fiscal 2026 compared with fiscal 2025.
  • +The Kingsdown expansion and Stearns & Foster relaunch provide two specific avenues for growth in the premium category, which management described as more resilient than the entry-level category. This is also supported by approximately 3% sales growth at company-owned Tempur-Pedic stores in Q2 fiscal 2026, while the broader U.S. market remained weak.

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $97.83, within a range of $90 to $106, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average target is very close to the top of the 52-week range of $98.56, while the highest target exceeds that peak and the lowest target remains within the $60.39–$98.56 range; this reflects relatively high expectations for successful synergies and margin improvement despite weak demand and pressure on Mattress Firm and international business margins.

BuyAnalyst target: $97.83(+46.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-03; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What supports SGI's earnings despite weakness in the mattress market?

In Q2 fiscal 2026, Somnigroup generated revenue of $1.8 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.58, up 9% from the comparable period. Sales and cost synergy benefits in North America totaled $30 million, including approximately $15 million from cost synergies. These benefits, together with productivity and sales mix, helped raise North America's adjusted gross margin by 680 basis points to 61.8% and its adjusted operating margin by 400 basis points to 26.7%.

How important is Mattress Firm to Somnigroup's results?

Mattress Firm sales were approximately $922 million in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with consolidated revenue of $1.8 billion, and its comparable-store sales grew modestly. The company expects Tempur Sealy brands and private labels to represent a mid-sixties percentage of Mattress Firm's total sales during fiscal 2026. Increasing this share is expected to provide a $65 million benefit in adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization compared with fiscal 2025, but it also increases the interdependence of the manufacturing and retail businesses.

What is the impact of the new Stearns & Foster launch on SGI?

The company will begin rolling out the new Stearns & Foster assortment at the end of Q3 fiscal 2026, with the rollout continuing through early 2027. The updates include an enhanced cooling system, a stronger microcoil support layer, and new hybrid technology, with the number of higher-priced models increasing by more than 50%. The company aims to reduce price overlap with the upper end of Sealy and raise the average selling price, although management expects most of the financial benefit to be realized in 2027 and beyond.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Underlying demand remains weak; management revised its assumption for the global bedding market in fiscal 2026 from a low-single-digit decline to a mid-single-digit decline and estimated that the market was down by a mid- to high-single-digit percentage in Q2. The entry-level mattress category was the most severely affected, while guidance anticipates a modest decline in Mattress Firm comparable sales during fiscal 2026.
  • −Organic growth shows a clear slowdown; Tempur-Pedic Sealy North America sales were flat on a comparable basis in Q2 fiscal 2026, external retailer sales declined by 5% excluding floor models, and the direct channel declined by 1%. International sales increased by only 2% as reported and 1% in constant currency, while the online business also remained modestly lower.
  • −Mattress Firm margins came under meaningful pressure in Q2 fiscal 2026, with adjusted gross margin declining by 240 basis points to 33.3% and adjusted operating margin falling by 130 basis points to 6.5%. The company attributed this to product mix, higher consumer financing costs, store investments, and incomplete absorption of fixed costs, making profitability improvement dependent on a recovery in volume and the success of its investments.
  • −Mattress Firm represents a significant concentration within the group; its sales were $922 million out of total revenue of $1.8 billion in Q2 fiscal 2026. The company also expects eliminated intercompany sales to equal approximately 24% of global Tempur Sealy brand sales during fiscal 2026, and Tempur Sealy brands and private labels to account for a mid-sixties percentage of Mattress Firm sales, increasing the interdependence between manufacturing performance and the retail network.
  • −The international business faces competitive and operational pressure; international gross margin declined by 80 basis points to 47.4% and operating margin fell by 120 basis points to 12.4% in Q2 fiscal 2026. Dreams faced a difficult and highly promotional UK market, along with transitional disruptions related to the implementation of an enterprise resource planning system.
  • −Commodity and supply chain costs remain a risk to margins; management estimated annual cost inflation of approximately $90 million, and the company recorded a transitional burden of $10 million in Q2 fiscal 2026 due to higher input and freight costs before price increases were implemented. Management expects to offset the impact through pricing in the second half, but these increases themselves reduce the margin percentage, while the pressure was also linked to the Middle East crisis and supply disruptions at LyondellBasell.
What is Somnigroup's guidance for fiscal 2026?

Management expects adjusted earnings per share of between $2.85 and $3.15 for fiscal 2026, with revenue of approximately $7.6 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of approximately $1.39 billion at the midpoint. It also targets a reported gross margin slightly above 45%, supported by approximately 100 basis points of net margin expansion resulting from efficiency, synergies, and operating leverage. The guidance assumes a mid-single-digit percentage contraction in the global bedding market, low-single-digit growth for Tempur Sealy in North America and the international business, and a modest decline in Mattress Firm comparable sales.

What do SGI's leverage and liquidity look like?

Consolidated debt net of cash was $4.3 billion at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, and the leverage ratio under the senior credit facility reached 2.99 times. This places the company within its target range of between two and three times, after reducing net debt by more than $500 million during the twelve months ended that quarter. The company recorded operating cash flow of $236 million and free cash flow of $182 million in the quarter, while the refinancing extended the credit facility's maturities to 2031.

What does the proposed combination with Leggett & Platt mean for SGI shareholders?

Management said on the August 6, 2026 call that it had obtained most of the required regulatory approvals and that the Leggett & Platt shareholder vote was scheduled for August 20, 2026, with closing expected before the end of Q3 fiscal 2026. It described Leggett & Platt as a diversified component manufacturer and a long-standing supplier to Somnigroup, and expects the combination to expand vertical integration and the addressable market into industries beyond bedding. Management also expects to incorporate the transaction into guidance after closing and achieve immediate accretion to adjusted earnings per share before synergies, but acknowledged that integrating Leggett & Platt will add operational complexity to the group.