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Simmons First National Corporation
SFNC

SFNC Simmons First National Corporation

Simmons First National Corporation · NASDAQ
Market Closed
23.19
▲ ⁦+0.26%⁩ (+0.06)
Market Cap$3.4B
Beta0.92
52w Low52w High
17.0024.32
Last Week
⁦+0.91%⁩
Last Month
⁦-1.44%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+8.42%⁩
Last Year
⁦+11.60%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall35
Weak — below market medianTurnaroundF 4/9Better than 35% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
53
—17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
26
-56.8%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
17
——Bottom tier
▸
Safety
21
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
43
3.67%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
81
12.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
74
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$23
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$26
⁦+12%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$25–$28⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$100
⁦+331%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.4⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$26–$100⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$26.17
⁦+12.9%⁩
Current Price $23.19·Median $26.00
Low
$25.00
High
$27.50
Current price
$23.19
Average target
$26.17
Street summary

Higher Target Amid Clear Divergence in Ratings

The consensus price target rose to 26.17 from 25 over the last 30 days, an increase of 1.17 or 4.68%, while the number of analysts remained at two. There was no change over the last day or seven days. Current targets range from 25 to 27.5, reflecting relatively limited dispersion around the consensus and median of 26.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+4.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.57
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
43%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
2↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
11%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
2
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.57 → 3.57
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-10
    Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
    Market PerformOutperform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-08
    Morgan Stanley
    PositiveUnderweight
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-04
    Piper Sandler
    UnderweightOverweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    10.96x
    2.76x22.06x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -56.8%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Weak
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -313.4%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    3.7%
    0.6%9.0%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-17 data

Company Overview

Simmons First National Corporation is a banking institution focused on attracting deposits, financing loans, and building integrated banking relationships. Its model relies on net interest income generated by deploying deposits and funding sources into loans, alongside wealth management and institutional services fees, with lending activities covering commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate, and the agricultural sector. In the July 17, 2026 call, management emphasized that the priority is growing checking accounts and core deposits and linking credit to operating accounts, wealth services, and fee-based services.

In fiscal Q1 2026, the company recorded revenue of $346.0 million, net income of $68.5 million, and earnings per share of $0.47. Compared with fiscal Q1 2025, revenue declined by about 2.3% from $354.0 million, while net income increased by about 111% from $32.4 million and earnings per share rose by about 81% from $0.26. Fiscal 2025 recorded revenue of $627.8 million, a net loss of $397.6 million, and negative earnings per share of $2.95, highlighting the strength of the subsequent recovery but also revealing significant volatility in results.

Fiscal Q2 2026 indicators showed operational improvement in funding, lending, and efficiency, although the available call transcript does not provide revenue or net income figures for that quarter. Non-interest-bearing deposits grew at an annual rate of 4%, and the number of checking accounts increased by more than 1% year over year and sequentially, while loan growth since the beginning of the year reached about 7% on an annualized basis. The company also reduced real estate space by 2.5% during the quarter, bringing the cumulative reduction since the initiative began to 8.5% against a target of 15%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management implicitly raised its operating outlook in the July 17, 2026 call; following previous guidance for net interest income growth between 9% and 11% during fiscal 2026, it said it was comfortable achieving the high end of the range and also expects to exceed the positive operating leverage target of more than 5%.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Management expected non-interest expense growth during fiscal 2026 to be below the previous range of 2% to 3%, despite continued investment in talent and technology. This is supported by a cumulative 8.5% reduction in real estate space, with a stated target of reaching 15% and continuing to improve front-, middle-, and back-office operations.
  • Loan growth since the beginning of fiscal 2026 reached about 7% on an annualized basis, which is approximately at the high end of management's low- to mid-single-digit growth expectations. Quarterly loan production also approached its highest level in four years, and unfunded commitments increased, providing a potential base for funding loans during the remainder of fiscal 2026 while the bank maintains its credit and pricing standards.
  • There are $1.8 billion of fixed-rate loans due to reprice during the twelve months following the July 17, 2026 call, with an average yield below 4%. Repricing this balance represents potential support for loan yields and net interest income, particularly after the decline in loan yield during fiscal Q2 2026 was limited to one basis point versus seven basis points in the previous period.
  • New consumer products launched on March 31, 2026 began contributing to the deposit strategy, alongside campaigns targeting consumers, small businesses, and wealth clients. Early indicators appeared in the 4% annualized growth in non-interest-bearing deposits and the increase in checking accounts of more than 1%, in addition to inflows from new client balances exceeding outflows during fiscal Q2 2026.
  • Share repurchases remain a supportive factor for capital allocation; as of July 17, 2026, $161 million remained under the existing authorization. Management explained that organic investment in the business remains the first priority and that repurchases will be evaluated opportunistically based on growth opportunities and excess capital levels.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The improvement in profitability between fiscal Q1 2025 and fiscal Q1 2026 was strong; net income increased from $32.4 million to $68.5 million, and earnings per share rose from $0.26 to $0.47 despite a revenue decline of about 2.3%.
    • +The fiscal 2026 outlook combines net interest income growth at the high end of the 9% to 11% range, expenses expected to grow below the 2% to 3% range, and operating leverage likely to exceed 5%. If these elements are achieved together, they would indicate improved efficiency in converting income growth into operating earnings.
    • +The $1.8 billion fixed-rate loan balance, with an average yield below 4% and repricing within twelve months of July 17, 2026, provides clear support for interest income. This coincides with loan production near its highest level in four years and annualized loan growth since the beginning of the year of about 7%.
    • +The deposit strategy shows tangible signs of execution, including 4% annual growth in non-interest-bearing deposits, an increase in checking accounts of more than 1%, and new client inflows exceeding outflows. Improving this mix could help Simmons fund loan growth through core client deposits instead of increasing reliance on wholesale funding.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Fiscal 2025 showed a net loss of $397.6 million and negative earnings per share of $2.95, while fiscal Q3 2025 recorded negative revenue of $442.8 million and a net loss of $562.8 million. This sharp volatility makes the sustainability of the recovery recorded in fiscal Q1 2026, when net income reached $68.5 million, a factor that should be monitored carefully.
    • −Nonperforming assets increased in fiscal Q2 2026, and the bank was relatively burdened by a construction financing relationship for four single-family homes carrying a specific allowance of about 11%. Management was unable to specify a resolution date and acknowledged on July 17, 2026 that the resolution could extend partly or entirely beyond year-end, while maintaining its annual net charge-off outlook near 25 basis points.
    • −The CEO described deposit competition as extremely intense and expected it to continue, while the cost of deposits at the end of fiscal Q2 2026 was about 1.90% versus a quarterly average of 1.93%. Competition and pricing investments could keep the cost within a range of 1.90% to 1.95% if interest rates remain stable, potentially limiting the margin benefit from loan repricing.
    • −The company also faces strong competition in loan pricing; management stated that it had lost opportunities over several quarters because other banks offered rates that Simmons was not close to matching. The bank's commitment to relationship returns and credit discipline protects portfolio quality, but it could slow loan growth if competition intensifies or repayments increase.
    • −Agricultural lending carries specific sector risks; management acknowledged on July 17, 2026 that the agricultural sector faces challenges, even as the bank benefits from seasonality and the transfer of relationships with high-quality farmers. Loan growth since the beginning of fiscal 2026 also reached about 7% on an annualized basis, but second-quarter growth was weaker than in the first quarter, making pipeline execution and the offsetting of repayments critical factors.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $25 and matching high and low targets of $25. This target is only about 2.8% above the 52-week range high of $24.32, while the range low is $17, placing the target near the upper end of the annual trading record. The recovery in fiscal Q1 2026 and the expected net interest income growth between 9% and 11% support the positive view, but the fiscal 2025 net loss of $397.6 million and the narrow range of analyst targets warrant caution when interpreting the consensus.

    BuyAnalyst target: $25(+7.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving Simmons First National Corporation's earnings in fiscal 2026?

    The bank relies on net interest income from loans funded by deposits and other funding sources, in addition to wealth management and institutional services fees. In fiscal Q1 2026, revenue was $346.0 million, net income was $68.5 million, and earnings per share were $0.47. In the July 17, 2026 call, management said it was comfortable achieving the high end of its fiscal 2026 net interest income growth outlook of 9% to 11%. It also expected to exceed the positive operating leverage target of more than 5%.

    How is SFNC growing loans and deposits in fiscal 2026?

    Loan growth since the beginning of fiscal 2026 reached about 7% on an annualized basis, while quarterly loan production approached its highest level in four years. Non-interest-bearing deposits grew at an annual rate of 4% during fiscal Q2 2026, and the number of checking accounts increased by more than 1% year over year and sequentially. Management reported on July 17, 2026 that inflows from new client balances exceeded outflows. Consumer products launched on March 31, 2026 and campaigns targeting consumers, small businesses, and wealth clients also began supporting this strategy.

    Why is the repricing of fixed-rate loans important for SFNC stock?

    Simmons has about $1.8 billion of fixed-rate loans with an average yield below 4% that are due to reprice within twelve months of the July 17, 2026 call. Repricing could raise the portfolio's average yield and support net interest income if deposit competition does not absorb this benefit. Loan yield declined by only one basis point in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with a seven-basis-point decline in the previous period. However, management emphasized that loan pricing competition is intense and that it will not relax return or credit standards to achieve growth.

    What are Simmons' main credit risks in fiscal 2026?

    Nonperforming assets increased slightly in fiscal Q2 2026, and a construction financing relationship for four single-family homes stood out among the largest nonperforming loans. The loan carries a specific allowance of about 11%, and management did not specify a final resolution date on July 17, 2026. Conversely, management noted a decline in classified and criticized loans and a return of delinquencies toward historical levels. It maintained its fiscal 2026 annual net charge-off outlook near 25 basis points, with the first half remaining below that level.

    Is Simmons implementing a cost-cutting and share repurchase program?

    The company reduced its real estate space by 2.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, bringing the cumulative reduction since the initiative began to 8.5%. Management is targeting a 15% reduction, with additional opportunities in corporate space and improvements to front-, middle-, and back-office operations. As of July 17, 2026, $161 million remained under the share repurchase authorization. However, management explained that funding organic growth and investing in talent and technology take precedence over repurchases in its capital priorities.

    What does SFNC's valuation look like according to analyst consensus?

    The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $25, which is also the highest and lowest target. This target is about 2.8% above the 52-week range high of $24.32, while the range low is $17. The valuation is supported by the improvement in net income to $68.5 million and earnings per share to $0.47 in fiscal Q1 2026. Conversely, the fiscal 2025 loss of $397.6 million and the fact that all targets match at a single figure highlight the need to verify the sustainability of the recovery and the breadth of analyst coverage.

    −
    The valuation consensus relies on a single target of $25, as the highest and lowest targets match the average, meaning there is no range of estimates providing diversity in analyst views. This target also exceeds the 52-week range high of $24.32 by only about 2.8%, so the potential for rerating above the stated historical high may be limited unless the profitability and efficiency expectations are achieved.