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Stocks
Smithfield Foods, Inc.
SFD

SFD Smithfield Foods, Inc.

Smithfield Foods, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
20.26
▼ ⁦-1.60%⁩ (-0.33)
Market Cap$8.0B
Beta-0.50
52w Low52w High
20.0529.81
Last Week
⁦-9.55%⁩
Last Month
⁦-20.24%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-22.17%⁩
Last Year
⁦-20.42%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall74
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 7/9SafeBetter than 74% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
95
7.6x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
39
4.3%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
51
11.6%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
82
0.6x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
71
4.94%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
26
-2.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
37
4▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$20
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$31
⁦+51%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$29–$32⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$31
⁦+51%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$31–$31⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$30.50
⁦+50.5%⁩
Current Price $20.26·Median $30.50
Low
$29.00
High
$32.00
Current price
$20.26
Average target
$30.50
Street summary

Limited Consensus Cut While Ratings Remain Positive

The consensus price target declined to 30.5 from 31.5 over the last 7 days, and to 30.5 from 32 over the last 30 days, a decrease of 3.17% and 4.69%, respectively. The number of analysts remained unchanged at two, and the current range is between 29 and 32, indicating limited divergence but a narrow coverage base. Compared with the current price of 20.52, the consensus remains clearly higher, without implying broader confidence given the unchanged number of analysts.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-3.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
83%
High
Target dispersion
15%
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
1
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.14 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-04-29
    Barclays
    Overweight· $32.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    7.56x
    4.61x36.85x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.66x
    3.86x30.86x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    5.60x
    2.86x22.90x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    10.0%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    4.3%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    13.1%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    13.4%
    9.2%67.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    11.6%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.63x
    0.61x4.86x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    4.9%
    0.9%8.3%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    37.3%
    15.9%176.6%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.45
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-11 data

Company Overview

Smithfield Foods operates through a vertically integrated model combining Packaged Meats, Fresh Pork, and Hog Production. Packaged Meats is the primary earnings driver, relying on brands such as Smithfield, Eckrich, Nathan's Famous, and Prime Fresh, and on a mix of branded and private-label products and retail and foodservice channels; meanwhile, the Fresh Pork business seeks to maximize the value of each animal through retail, exports, pharmaceuticals, and pet food, while Hog Production supplies part of the requirements and supports cost control.

In fiscal 2026 Q2, consolidated revenue was $3.7 billion, down 2.3% year over year, and gross profit according to EDGAR filings was approximately $478 million, equivalent to a gross margin of about 12.9%, while net income was $238 million and earnings per share were $0.60. On an adjusted basis, the company achieved a record second-quarter operating profit of $300 million, with adjusted operating margin rising to 8.1% from 7.9%, while adjusted net income increased 13% to $245 million and adjusted earnings per share rose 13% to $0.62.

Packaged Meats sales were $2 billion and generated operating profit of $265 million and a margin of 13.1%, confirming the segment's importance to earnings despite a 5.5% volume decline. Fresh Pork sales were $2 billion, but operating profit was limited to $14 million at a margin of 0.7%, while Hog Production recorded sales of $772 million and operating profit of $64 million, up $42 million year over year. For the twelve months ended in fiscal 2026, EDGAR data showed revenue of $15.6 billion, net income of $1 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $2.56.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Smithfield increased its product distribution points by 6.2% in fiscal 2026 Q2, while total e-commerce volume rose 21.7%, with gains in e-commerce volume share across 22 of 25 categories; the plan for the second half of fiscal 2026 depends on converting this expanded reach into better volumes and mix, particularly in the seasonal fourth quarter.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Prime Fresh volume increased 18.4%, supported by a 24.3% increase in distribution points, while branded packaged lunch meat volume grew 9.5% and its volume share rose 1.1 points. The company also added products such as Prime Fresh Pepperoni & Salami and Smithfield Meal Ready Cuts, while volume of value-added fresh products that are prepared or seasoned increased 4%.
  • Nathan's Grass Fed was launched on May 1, 2026, and ended fiscal 2026 Q2 as the leading national product in the grass-fed beef hot dog category, with penetration exceeding 40% of weighted distribution. Its campaign generated nearly 2 billion earned media impressions, while dollars spent by Gen Z consumers on the company's products increased 15.2% during the 52 weeks ended in the quarter.
  • Hog Production generated operating profit of $64 million in fiscal 2026 Q2, compared with $22 million a year earlier, benefiting from a 9% increase in the average hog selling price, including the impact of hedging, as well as feed savings and improved efficiency at retained farms. This was the segment's sixth consecutive profitable quarter, while the company maintained its medium-term goal of internally producing approximately 30% of the Fresh Pork business's requirements.
  • Liquidity supports the company's ability to invest and allocate capital: available liquidity was $3.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2026 Q2, including $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, while net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.4 times. Operating cash flow in the first half of fiscal 2026 also increased to $204 million from $108 million and exceeded $1.1 billion during the twelve months ended in that quarter.
  • Management expects to complete the Nathan's Famous transaction in the second half of fiscal 2026, subject to CFIUS review and customary closing conditions, securing long-term brand rights if completed. Conversely, the company lowered its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook to approximately flat from low-single-digit growth and set its adjusted operating profit range at $1.225–$1.375 billion.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The integrated model demonstrated its ability to balance segment volatility in fiscal 2026 Q2; improved Hog Production partly offset pressure on Fresh Pork margins, while consolidated adjusted operating profit reached a record $300 million as the margin expanded to 8.1%.
    • +The brands and innovations are showing measurable momentum, with Prime Fresh volume growing 18.4%, e-commerce volume increasing 21.7%, total distribution points rising 6.2%, and Nathan's Grass Fed reaching the top position in its category during the quarter in which it was launched.
    • +The balance sheet provides a margin of safety and funding for growth; net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 0.4 times is far below the company's policy of less than 2 times, while liquidity was $3.6 billion and trailing four-quarter operating cash flow exceeded $1.1 billion.
    • +The breadth of the portfolio across value, mainstream, premium, and private-label brands gives Smithfield flexibility as consumers seek value, and the percentage of households purchasing products from 11 of the company's brands increased. Fresh meat foodservice sales also rose 12% and volumes increased 8% in fiscal 2026 Q2, while Packaged Meats foodservice sales increased 1% in the first half.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Weak consumer spending pressured volumes and prompted management to lower its fiscal 2026 revenue outlook from low-single-digit growth to approximately flat; in Q2, consolidated revenue declined 2.3%, Packaged Meats volumes fell 5.5%, and Fresh Pork volumes decreased 2%.
    • −The Fresh Pork business faced a $37 million contraction in industry market margin during fiscal 2026 Q2, causing operating profit to fall to $14 million from $30 million and the margin to decline to 0.7% from 1.4%. Selling and efficiency strategies offset only $21 million of this pressure, and management expects industry margin pressure to persist in Q3.
    • −Hog Production earnings depend heavily on commodity prices; the futures curves used by management indicate prices 3% to 8% below fiscal 2025 levels and a decline of approximately 13% year over year in fiscal 2026 Q4. The company therefore expects a sequential slowdown in Q3 followed by a segment loss in Q4, while lowering its fiscal 2026 adjusted operating profit range to $75–$125 million.
    • −Packaged Meats operating profit declined $31 million in fiscal 2026 Q2, and its margin fell 110 basis points to 13.1%, despite offsetting raw material costs through pricing and mix. Fuel, freight, and resin packaging costs remain elevated, while increased advertising spending in the second half could delay margin recovery if distribution gains do not translate into sufficient sales volume.
    • −The Nathan's Famous transaction remains subject to CFIUS review and customary closing conditions, while construction of the proposed Sioux Falls plant still awaits final approval. Therefore, the strategic benefits attributed to securing Nathan's rights and adding the largest combined Fresh Pork and Packaged Meats facility to the company's network are not yet certain.
    • −Net insider selling during the three months ended with the latest transaction on June 16, 2026, was approximately $2.3 million across 2 sales and no purchases. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless disclosures indicate otherwise.

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $31.50, within a narrow range of $31 to $32, and the consensus rating is “Buy”; the average target is also above the 52-week range high of $29.805, while the range low is $21.08. No reported price-to-earnings multiple is available in the data, so the valuation assessment is based on analyst targets and earnings per share of approximately $2.56 for the twelve months ended in fiscal 2026, balanced against the reduced revenue outlook, Fresh Pork margin pressures, and hog prices.

    BuyAnalyst target: $31.5(+55.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is the main earnings driver for SFD in fiscal 2026?

    Packaged Meats remains the primary earnings driver, generating operating profit of $265 million and a margin of 13.1% in fiscal 2026 Q2. Segment sales were $2 billion, despite a 5.5% decline in volumes and a 2.9% increase in average selling price. The Smithfield, Eckrich, Nathan's Famous, and Prime Fresh brands support this business across retail, foodservice, and private-label channels. Management expects the segment to remain highly profitable and lead growth in fiscal 2026 Q4.

    Why did Smithfield lower its fiscal 2026 outlook?

    Management lowered its sales growth outlook from a low-single-digit rate to approximately flat because of consumer caution and continued inflation affecting demand and inputs. It also assumed weaker commodity markets, particularly in Hog Production and, to a lesser extent, Fresh Pork. The consolidated adjusted operating profit range for fiscal 2026 is now $1.225–$1.375 billion, while the Packaged Meats range is $1.075–$1.15 billion. The company set the Fresh Pork range at $180–$240 million and Hog Production at $75–$125 million.

    Are Smithfield's new products generating measurable growth?

    Prime Fresh volume increased 18.4% in fiscal 2026 Q2, supported by a 24.3% increase in its distribution points and the addition of Prime Fresh Pepperoni & Salami. Nathan's Grass Fed was launched on May 1, 2026, and ended the quarter as the leading product in the grass-fed beef hot dog category, with penetration exceeding 40%. Volume of value-added prepared and seasoned fresh meats also increased 4% following the launch of Smithfield Meal Ready Cuts in April 2026. Across digital channels, the company's e-commerce volume rose 21.7%, and its volume share increased in 22 of 25 categories.

    How strong is Smithfield's financial position?

    Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 0.4 times at the end of fiscal 2026 Q2, compared with an internal policy targeting a level below 2 times. Liquidity was $3.6 billion, including $1.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents, compared with a cash policy threshold of $1 billion. The business generated $204 million in operating cash flow in the first half of fiscal 2026, compared with $108 million in the same period of the previous year. Operating cash flow also exceeded $1.1 billion during the twelve months ended in that quarter.

    What is the biggest risk to SFD's Hog Production earnings?

    The primary risk is hog price volatility because management stated that the segment's results in the second half of fiscal 2026 will be determined largely by market prices. The segment generated $64 million in operating profit in Q2, compared with $22 million a year earlier, benefiting from a 9% increase in the average selling price, including the impact of hedging. However, the futures curve used by the company indicated prices 3% to 8% below fiscal 2025 and a decline of approximately 13% in fiscal 2026 Q4. Management therefore expects profitability to slow in Q3 and the segment to record a loss in Q4 despite improvements in herd health, feed efficiency, and cost structure.

    What does the proposed Nathan's Famous transaction mean for SFD shareholders?

    Smithfield expects to complete the transaction in the second half of fiscal 2026, but closing remains subject to CFIUS review and customary closing conditions. If completed, it will secure the company's long-term rights to the Nathan's Famous brand and support its growth in retail and foodservice. The brand has clear operating momentum, as Nathan's Grass Fed became the leading product in its category during fiscal 2026 Q2 and its penetration exceeded 40%. Nevertheless, the transaction's benefits should not be treated as certain before the stated review and conditions are satisfied.