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Stocks
Southern Copper Corporation
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall90
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 8/9SafeBetter than 90% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
27
28.3x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
82
32.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
91
29.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
87
0.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
51
1.87%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
75
91.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
44
8▲3Around median
SCCO

SCCO Southern Copper Corporation

Southern Copper Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
193.49
▼ ⁦-0.33%⁩ (-0.65)
Market Cap$161.4B
Beta1.14
52w Low52w High
99.87223.89
Last Week
⁦-4.03%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.15%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+10.46%⁩
Last Year
⁦+87.15%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$193
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$163
⁦-16%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$140–$178⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$85
⁦-56%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.4⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$85–$163⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$162.33
⁦-16.1%⁩
Current Price $193.49·Median $163.00
Low
$140.00
High
$178.00
Current price
$193.49
Average target
$162.33
Street summary

Southern Copper (SCCO) Price Target Analysis

Bearish tilt

Southern Copper stock shows a clear gap between its current market price (184.61) and the highest price target set by analysts (178), indicating a high valuation that exceeds the expectations of financial institutions. Despite a slight increase in the average target by 0.62% over the past thirty days, the price consensus later settled at 162.33, which is approximately 12% lower than the current price, with a variance in targets ranging between 140 and 178 dollars.

As of 2026-08-16
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.11
Sell
Analyst coverage
18
Buy conviction
6%
Target dispersion
20%
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
1
6
5
6
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.71 → 2.11
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-07-26
    CICC
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Barclays
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Citigroup
    Positive
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    28.29x
    4.94x39.51x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    30.28x
    3.70x29.59x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    16.66x
    2.62x20.92x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.2%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    32.8%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    56.5%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    63.8%
    7.6%58.9%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    29.9%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.13x
    0.22x3.72x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.2%5.5%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    53.2%
    4.7%147.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    11.06
    -11.4212.56
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Southern Copper Corporation is an integrated mining company whose operations and growth projects are concentrated in Peru and Mexico, and it generates revenue primarily from the production and sale of copper, along with molybdenum, silver, and zinc. In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, copper represented 73% of sales, molybdenum 11%, silver 9%, and zinc 4%, making copper prices the largest driver of results, with an important contribution from by-products in reducing cash costs.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, sales totaled $4.3 billion, or $4.29 billion according to the detailed reported figure, an increase of approximately 41% year over year. Gross profit according to EDGAR data was approximately $2.9 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of about 67%, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached a record $2.856 billion, with a margin of 67% versus 59% in the corresponding period. Net income reached a record $1.67 billion, an increase of 72%, with a net income margin of 39% and earnings per share of $2.01.

Earnings were strong despite a 3.5% decline in copper production to 230,662 tons and a 1.5% decrease in its sales volume, as higher metal prices offset weaker volumes. Copper sales rose 38%, molybdenum 34%, zinc 24%, and silver 86%, while operating costs and expenses increased by $202 million, or 14%. On a last-twelve-month basis for fiscal year 2026, EDGAR data show revenue of $15.8 billion, gross profit of $10.1 billion, net income of $5.7 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $6.85.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The average copper price on the London Metal Exchange rose 40% year over year to $6.04 per pound in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, while the average COMEX price increased 31% to $6.16; this was the main factor behind the 41% growth in sales and 72% increase in net income despite lower copper volumes.
  • By-products contributed strongly to operating economics during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026; the average molybdenum price rose 43% to $29.44 per pound, silver 118% to $73.49 per ounce, and zinc 31% to $1.57 per pound. By-product credits totaled $1.106 billion, or $2.24 per pound, reducing copper cash costs after credits to $0.05 per pound.
  • Southern Copper raised its fiscal year 2026 copper production target from the initial plan of approximately 910,000 tons to 917,000 tons and expects sales volumes to improve in the second half of fiscal year 2026 as work-in-process materials are converted into metal available for sale. It also targets production of 27,900 tons of molybdenum, 7% above the initial plan, 24 million ounces of silver, and 163,900 tons of zinc.
  • Capital project spending totaled $423 million in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, an increase of 79% year over year, and reached $865 million in the first half, an increase of 56%. The Tía María project was 42% complete as of June 30, 2026, with an investment of $693 million and a total commitment of $1.101 billion, while the company targets copper production of approximately 970,000 tons in fiscal year 2028 and more than one million tons in fiscal year 2029.
  • On July 16, 2026, the board of directors approved a cash dividend of $1.10 per share and a stock dividend of 0.012 shares for each share, payable on August 27, 2026, to shareholders of record on August 11, 2026. The company estimated the combined value of the two distributions at the equivalent of $3.23 per share.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Southern Copper demonstrated a strong ability to convert higher metal prices into earnings and cash flow, as the adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin expanded from 59% to 67%, while the net income margin increased from 32% to 39% in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • +By-product diversification provides important cost support; despite cash costs before by-product credits rising to $2.29 per pound, credits of $2.24 per pound reduced net cash costs to $0.05 per pound in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026.
  • +Cash flow from operating activities increased 117% to $3.683 billion in the first half of fiscal year 2026, providing a strong funding base for an investment program exceeding $20.5 billion over the decade, alongside debt financing when needed.
  • +Organic projects support the production growth trajectory; Tía María is expected to contribute to increasing copper production to approximately 970,000 tons in fiscal year 2028, while El Pilar has planned annual capacity of 36,000 tons of copper cathodes and is expected to begin production in the second half of fiscal year 2029.
  • +The increase in the fiscal year 2026 copper production target to 917,000 tons, approximately 1% above the initial plan, reflects management's confidence in offsetting part of the weakness in ore grades in Peru through improved Mexican operations and work-in-process materials.

Valuation

The analyst consensus on SCC is Neutral, with an average price target of $162.33 and a range of $140 to $178, representing a $38 difference between the endpoints. The average target falls within the 52-week range of $89.5007 to $220.78 but is approximately 26% below its peak; this balances record earnings driven by metal prices against lower copper production and the scale of the capital spending program. No valid price-to-earnings ratio was presented, so this multiple cannot be used to assess the valuation.

HoldAnalyst target: $162.33(-16.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove SCC's results in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

Southern Copper's sales totaled approximately $4.29 billion in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, an increase of 40.6% year over year, while net income attributable to the company rose 71.6% to $1.67 billion. The primary driver was higher metal prices, as the average copper price on the London Metal Exchange increased 40% to $6.04 per pound. These prices offset a 3.5% decline in copper production and a 1.5% decrease in its sales volume.

What is SCC's copper production target for fiscal year 2026?

Southern Copper targets copper production of 917,000 tons in fiscal year 2026, approximately 1% above its initial plan of about 910,000 tons. Production in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 totaled approximately 230,662 tons, a year-over-year decrease of 3.5% due to weaker ore grades and recoveries at Toquepala and Cuajone. Management expects sales volumes to improve in the second half of fiscal year 2026 as a portion of the materials that accumulated as work in process during the first half becomes available.

How important is the Tía María project to SCC's growth?

Tía María was approximately 42% complete as of June 30, 2026, after an investment of $693 million and the company's commitment of approximately $1.101 billion to project activities. The project's total expected cost is $1.8 billion, and Southern Copper primarily allocated the proceeds from the $1.25 billion notes issuance on June 24, 2026, to fund it. The company expects a production contribution from Tía María in the latter part of fiscal year 2027, followed by support for increasing copper production to approximately 970,000 tons in fiscal year 2028, with an estimated project cash cost of $1.16 per pound without by-products.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −The revenue model depends heavily on copper, which accounted for 73% of sales in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026; therefore, earnings are closely tied to the metal's price cycle. Record sales growth resulted primarily from higher prices, while copper sales volume declined 1.5%, meaning that lower prices could expose volume weakness.
  • −Operations face pressure from ore grades and production; copper production declined 3.5% to 230,662 tons in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, including a 12% decrease in Peru due to lower ore grades and recovery rates at Toquepala and Cuajone. Molybdenum production also declined 11%, silver 4%, and mined zinc production 14%, extending the impact of ore challenges across several metals.
  • −The capital investment program exceeds $20.5 billion over the decade and includes approximately $10.3 billion for Peruvian projects and $10.2 billion for Mexican investments under discussion. On June 24, 2026, the company issued $1.25 billion of unsecured notes due in 2036 at an interest rate of 5.35%, adding financing obligations as capital expenditures rise.
  • −The continued presence of illegal miners within the Los Chancas project area through June 30, 2026, impeded the project's progress despite law enforcement actions at the site. This makes part of the Peruvian growth pipeline dependent on resolving security and legal challenges outside the company's direct operational control.
  • −The analyst consensus on SCC is Neutral, with targets ranging from $140 to $178 and an average of $162.33, while the upper end of the 52-week range was $220.78. The average target being approximately 26% below the high of the annual range reflects valuation risk if elevated metal prices do not persist or production volumes do not improve.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 5, 2026, recorded six sales and no purchases, with a net 95,534 shares sold. This remains a weak standalone trading signal because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data provide no specific reason for these transactions.
How do by-products affect SCC's production costs?

Molybdenum represented 11% of second-quarter fiscal year 2026 sales, silver 9%, and zinc 4%. By-products generated credits of $1.106 billion, or $2.24 per pound, during the same period. As a result, copper cash costs after credits were $0.05 per pound, compared with costs of $2.29 per pound before those credits.

What are the main risks of investing in SCC stock?

The main operating risk comes from lower ore grades, which reduced copper production in Peru by 12% during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 and led to a 3.5% decline in total production. Additionally, 73% of sales depend on copper, making results highly sensitive to its prices after higher prices were what offset weaker volumes. In addition to an investment program exceeding $20.5 billion, illegal mining activity continued to obstruct the Los Chancas project through June 30, 2026.

What distributions did Southern Copper announce in July 2026?

On July 16, 2026, Southern Copper announced a quarterly cash dividend of $1.10 per share. It also announced a distribution of 0.012 shares of common stock for each share owned and estimated the combined value of the cash and stock distributions at the equivalent of $3.23 per share. The company set August 11, 2026, as the record date and August 27, 2026, as the payment date.