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The Boston Beer Company, Inc.
SAM

SAM The Boston Beer Company, Inc.

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
172.55
▲ ⁦+1.79%⁩ (+3.03)
Market Cap$1.8B
Beta0.84
52w Low52w High
158.68264.46
Last Week
⁦+0.44%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.66%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+3.10%⁩
Last Year
⁦-20.27%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall53
Balanced — near the middle of the marketValue TrapF 6/8SafeBetter than 53% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
21
-6.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
35
-9.0%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
67
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
84
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
18
-15.9%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
76
7▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$173
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$195
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$169–$295⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$354
⁦+105%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦8.1⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$195–$354⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$206.67
⁦+19.8%⁩
Current Price $172.55·Median $195.00
Low
$169.00
High
$295.00
Current price
$172.55
Average target
$206.67
Street summary

Boston Beer (SAM) Price Target Revision

Bearish tilt

Boston Beer stock has seen a notable decline in analyst optimism over the past thirty days, with the average price target falling from $242.25 to $206.67, a sharp decrease of 14.69%. This negative adjustment occurred while the number of analysts remained constant at 7, reflecting an actual reassessment of the stock's fair value by the covering institutions, despite the current price (186.52) remaining below the average target.

As of 2026-08-03
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.00
Hold
Analyst coverage
13
Buy conviction
8%
Target dispersion
73%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
1
11
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.93 → 3.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-27
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-16
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-05-06
    Morgan Stanley
    —· $220.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    16.61x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    11.5%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -6.1%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -191.7%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    48.9%
    9.2%67.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    -9.0%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.31
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

The Boston Beer Company, Inc. (SAM) operates in the alcoholic beverages market through a portfolio that includes Twisted Tea, Sun Cruiser, Truly, Angry Orchard, Samuel Adams, and Dogfish Head, alongside innovations such as Sinless Vodka Cocktails and LYTT Electric Coolers. The company generates revenue by shipping these products to distributors, with a presence in on-premise and off-premise consumption channels; the on-premise channel represents approximately 12% of its business. Portfolio performance varies significantly: Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard are growing, while volumes for Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Hard Mountain Dew, and Dogfish Head are declining.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue reached $568.3 million, down 3.3% year over year due to lower volume, partially offset by price increases and an improved product mix. Gross profit was $286.4 million, representing a gross margin of 50.4%, up 60 basis points year over year, while net income was $51.6 million and earnings per share were $4.96. Shipments declined 4.5%, and depletions declined 6%; growth in Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard was insufficient to offset weakness in the other brands.

Results over broader periods reveal a gap between operational improvement and reported profitability: fiscal 2025 recorded revenue of $2.0 billion and net income of $108.5 million, while the trailing twelve-month period ended in 2026 recorded revenue of approximately $1.9 billion and a net loss of $70.1 million. Fiscal 2026 was affected by expenses and litigation related to a supplier dispute totaling $198.1 million before tax from the start of the year through the end of Q2. In contrast, brewery efficiencies, improved procurement, favorable mix, and price increases supported gross-margin expansion during the quarter.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Sun Cruiser achieved triple-digit growth in fiscal Q2 2026 and its growth became supportive of revenue and margin; its revenue per case is approximately 25% to 30% higher than Twisted Tea, and its volume more than fully offset the volume lost from Twisted Tea during the first 29 weeks of fiscal 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Twisted Tea maintained a share exceeding 85% of the malt-based hard tea market, but lower sales velocity, reduced display space, and pressure on 12-pack packages weakened volume and share. In contrast, Twisted Tea Singles, Twisted Tea Light, and Twisted Tea Extreme gained share within the flavored malt beverage category.
  • Angry Orchard grew for the fifth consecutive quarter, and Crisp Imperial volume increased by more than 60% in measured off-premise channels during fiscal Q2 2026, providing a second source of growth alongside Sun Cruiser.
  • The company raised the lower end of its fiscal 2026 gross-margin guidance to a range of 48.5%–50%, while maintaining non-GAAP earnings-per-share guidance of $8.50–$10.50. This flexibility is supported by production and procurement savings and mix, as well as by reducing the incremental advertising spending plan by approximately $20 million after eliminating low-return media, particularly media related to Truly.
  • The proportion of production completed internally at the company's breweries increased to 84% in fiscal Q2 2026 from 76% a year earlier, and the company is targeting more than 90% in fiscal 2026 versus 86% in fiscal 2025. Obsolete inventory also declined 42% during the first half of fiscal 2026, supporting efficiency and cash flow.
  • The company launched Sinless Vodka Cocktails in more than 30 states and LYTT Electric Coolers in more than 5 states, but management does not expect them to make a material contribution to fiscal 2026 volumes. They therefore represent a potential growth option after 2026 rather than an immediate remedy for contraction in the core portfolio.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Sun Cruiser's expansion provides a strong, high-quality growth driver because the brand achieved triple-digit growth and generates approximately 25% to 30% more revenue per case than Twisted Tea, in addition to being margin-accretive.
    • +Gross margin improved despite weak volume, reaching 50.4% in fiscal Q2 2026 and increasing 60 basis points year over year due to brewery efficiencies, procurement, mix, and price increases, while the company also raised the lower end of its annual gross-margin guidance.
    • +The company has liquidity of $266 million, with $150 million available under its credit facility at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, and it repurchased more than $55 million of shares from the beginning of the year through July 17, 2026.
    • +Some brands retain strong competitive positions despite portfolio weakness: Twisted Tea holds more than 85% of the malt-based hard tea market, Truly maintains the second position in the Hard Seltzer category, and Angry Orchard grew for the fifth consecutive quarter.

    ▼ Selling Case7 pts

    • −The core portfolio is experiencing broad contraction, with depletions down 6% and shipments down 4.5% in fiscal Q2 2026, as Twisted Tea, Truly, Samuel Adams, Hard Mountain Dew, and Dogfish Head declined and growth in Sun Cruiser and Angry Orchard failed to offset the decrease fully.
    • −Twisted Tea faces competition and a shift in demand toward spirits-based ready-to-drink tea beverages, including Sun Cruiser and Surfside, while expansion of the RTD Spirits category has also weakened display space and sales velocity, particularly for Twisted Tea 12-pack packages. This shift increases the risk that Sun Cruiser's success will offset weakness in Twisted Tea within the portfolio rather than generate strong net growth for the company.
    • −Truly's marketing investments did not produce the expected impact on consumer demand, so the company reduced approximately $20 million of low-performing advertising, with most of the reduction related to this brand. The continued decline in Truly's volume and share despite improved presence at points of display raises questions about whether marketing spending can restore growth.
    • −Guidance indicates continued volume weakness; the company expects shipments and depletions to decline by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage in fiscal 2026 and believes current trends point toward the low end of the range. It also expects fiscal Q3 2026 shipments to decline by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage before modest growth in fiscal Q4 2026.
    • −Margins face pressure from aluminum, energy, freight, and tariff costs, and freight rates increased by more than 35% year over year in fiscal Q2 2026. The company estimates fiscal 2026 tariff costs at between $20 million and $30 million, and it does not hedge commodity prices, making profitability guidance sensitive to further inflation.
    • −The legal dispute with a supplier represents a significant financial and legal risk, as litigation expenses and related fees before tax reached $198.1 million from the beginning of fiscal 2026 through the end of Q2. The company intends to pursue post-trial proceedings and an appeal, but it cannot estimate the timing or likelihood of paying damages and interest.
    • −No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the trailing twelve-month net loss of $70.1 million and negative earnings per share of $6.76 for the period ended in 2026. The stock's valuation therefore depends more heavily on achieving a volume recovery, sustaining margins, and returning to profitability, none of which has yet been demonstrated on an annual basis.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on SAM is “Neutral,” with an average price target of $206.67 and a wide range between $169 and $295, reflecting substantial divergence in estimates of the recovery trajectory. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $264.46, while the upper target exceeds that high; the lower target is $169 compared with the range low of $158.68. No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available due to the trailing twelve-month loss for the period ended in 2026, so the valuation requires clear weighting of volume-contraction and litigation risks alongside margin improvement and Sun Cruiser's growth.

    HoldAnalyst target: $206.67(+19.8%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove SAM's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

    The Boston Beer Company's revenue in fiscal Q2 2026 was approximately $568.3 million, down 3.3% year over year due to lower volume, partially offset by pricing and mix. Gross profit was $286.4 million, and gross margin increased 60 basis points to 50.4% due to brewery efficiencies, procurement, and the Sun Cruiser mix. Net income was $51.6 million and earnings per share were $4.96, but depletions declined 6% and shipments declined 4.5%.

    Can Sun Cruiser offset Twisted Tea's decline?

    Sun Cruiser achieved triple-digit growth during fiscal Q2 2026 and remained near that rate during the thirteen weeks preceding the July 23, 2026 call. Sun Cruiser's volume during the first 29 weeks of fiscal 2026 slightly more than offset the volume lost in Twisted Tea, and its revenue per case is approximately 25% to 30% higher. However, management expects Sun Cruiser's growth rate to slow as the impact of distribution expansion fades, while Twisted Tea remains under pressure in volume, share, and 12-pack packages.

    What is The Boston Beer Company's guidance for fiscal 2026?

    The company expects volume to decline by a low-to-mid-single-digit percentage in fiscal 2026, with performance trending toward the low end if the trends from the first 29 weeks, which saw a decline of 5%, persist. The company raised the lower end of its gross-margin guidance to a range of 48.5%–50% and maintained non-GAAP earnings-per-share guidance at $8.50–$10.50. It also expects price increases of between 1% and 2%, capital expenditures of between $60 million and $80 million, and tariff costs of between $20 million and $30 million.

    What is the position of Twisted Tea and Truly in fiscal 2026?

    Twisted Tea holds a share exceeding 85% of the malt-based hard tea market, and no single competitor has more than 5%, but the brand faces declines in volume, share, and sales velocity. The greatest volume pressures are concentrated in 12-pack packages due to reduced display space and consumers shifting away from larger packages, while the shares of Singles, Light, and Extreme grew within the flavored malt beverage category. Truly maintains the second position in the Hard Seltzer category, but demand did not respond to marketing investments as the company expected, prompting it to reduce a significant portion of low-performing advertising spending.

    How does the supplier dispute affect SAM's earnings?

    Litigation expenses and fees related to the supplier dispute reached $198.1 million before tax from the beginning of fiscal 2026 through the end of Q2. The quarter included a favorable adjustment of $21 million for prejudgment interest, offset by $1.7 million of post-judgment interest, and the favorable net impact on reported earnings per share was $1.31. The company continues to pursue post-trial proceedings and an appeal and cannot estimate when or whether the damages and interest will be paid.

    Do Sinless and LYTT represent a significant driver of fiscal 2026 volumes?

    The company launched Sinless Vodka Cocktails in more than 30 states, a spirits-based beverage containing zero sugar, zero carbohydrates, and 100 calories per can. It also launched LYTT Electric Coolers in more than 5 states with 15% alcohol by volume, six flavors, and a 6.8-ounce resealable single-serve package. Despite the positive initial response from distributors, retailers, and consumers, management does not expect the two products to make a material contribution to fiscal 2026 volumes.