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Home
Stocks
Safehold Inc.
SAFE

SAFE Safehold Inc.

Safehold Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
14.03
▼ ⁦-2.30%⁩ (-0.33)
Market Cap$1.0B
Beta1.80
52w Low52w High
12.7617.45
Last Week
⁦-7.70%⁩
Last Month
⁦-13.87%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-6.28%⁩
Last Year
⁦-12.97%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall52
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 5/9DistressBetter than 52% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
66
8.7x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
66
12.1%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
65
1.5%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
28
40.9x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
61
5.05%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
43
0.7%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
43
6▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$14
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$16
⁦+14%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$16–$16⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$-59.36
⁦-523%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.4⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$-59.36–$16⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$16.00
⁦+14.0%⁩
Current Price $14.03·Median $16.00
Low
$16.00
High
$16.00
Street summary

Analysis of Safehold Inc. (SAFE) Price Targets

The price target for SAFE remained stable at $16 over the past week, following a positive revision 30 days ago that raised the consensus from $15 to $16 (+6.67%). The three analysts covering the stock show a complete lack of dispersion, as all targets (high, low, and mean) align at $16, indicating a technical consensus on the current fair value, which is slightly above the current price of $15.3.

As of 2026-08-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.45
Hold
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
36%
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
2
2
6
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.73 → 3.45
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-04
    Cantor Fitzgerald
    Neutral
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-05-01
    RBC Capital
    Market OutperformSector Perform· $16.00
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-01-22
    Morgan Stanley
    Underweight· $14.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.66x
    5.03x40.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.32x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    51.36x
    3.68x29.40x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.7%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Above average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    12.1%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    13.3%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    98.9%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    1.5%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    40.90x
    1.55x12.39x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    5.0%
    0.6%15.6%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    44.0%
    31.2%370.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.23
    -0.883.10
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-02-12 data

Company Overview

Safehold Inc. is a real estate finance company specializing in modern ground leases for institutional-quality properties, generating returns from long-term ground rents and from leasehold loans that it selectively provides alongside the lease as an integrated financing solution. At the end of fiscal year 2025, its portfolio totaled approximately $7.1 billion across 164 assets, including 101 multifamily properties, while the underlying assets included approximately 23 thousand residential units, 12.6 million square feet of office space, more than 5 thousand hotel rooms, 2 million square feet of life sciences space, and other property types.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, Safehold reported revenue of $114.6 million, gross profit of $113.9 million, net income of $30.2 million, and earnings per share of $0.42. This represents a gross profit margin of approximately 99.4% and a net income margin of approximately 26.4%, compared with revenue of $110.9 million, net income of $28.9 million, and earnings per share of $0.40 in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026.

On a trailing twelve-month basis in 2026, revenue totaled $419.5 million, gross profit $414.7 million, net income $116.2 million, and earnings per share approximately $1.62. Fiscal year 2025 recorded revenue of $385.6 million and net income of $114.5 million, while new investment commitments during the year consisted of $277 million across 17 ground leases and $152 million across four leasehold loans, for a total of $429 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Revenue in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 increased by approximately 3.3% from the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, while net income rose by approximately 4.5% and earnings per share increased from $0.40 to $0.42, demonstrating continued earnings growth during the first half of fiscal year 2026.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Safehold entered fiscal year 2026 with approximately $1.2 billion in liquidity and $265 million in unfunded commitments, consisting of approximately $140 million for ground leases and $125 million for loans; management expected to deploy these funds over six to seven quarters.
  • The economics of new investments improved, as new ground lease financings in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 generated an economic yield of 7.3%, while unfunded ground lease commitments carry yields in the low 7% range, compared with an effective interest rate of 4.3% on permanent debt.
  • S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A- with a stable outlook, giving Safehold A-category ratings from all three major rating agencies. The $400 million unsecured loan also refinanced the nearest maturity in 2027, and the company no longer had any significant maturities before 2029, according to fiscal year-end 2025 data.
  • The company estimated unrealized capital appreciation at $9.3 billion at the end of fiscal year 2025, an increase of approximately $200 million from the previous quarter, attributing it primarily to new investments. During 2026, management aims to increase ground lease volume, improve the visibility of Caret's value, and begin using the authorized share repurchase program when trading windows and market conditions permit.
  • The portfolio's economic yield was 5.9%, rising according to management's calculations to 6.1% after accounting for long-term inflation of 2.25%, and then to 7.3% after adding estimated unrealized capital appreciation through Safehold's 84% ownership of Caret.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The portfolio combines 3.4 times rent coverage with a ground lease value-to-property value ratio of 52% at the end of fiscal year 2025, while investments made during the same year were underwritten at 3.2 times coverage and a 34% ratio, providing a layer of protection from the value of the underlying properties.
    • +Safehold's weighted average debt maturity extends to approximately 18 years, with no significant maturities before 2029, while the $500 million SOFR swap fixed at 3% through April 2028 protects part of its variable-rate exposure.
    • +Liquidity of $1.2 billion and stable A-category credit ratings give the company the capacity to fund its new commitments, while management said its credit spreads had reached historic lows and that the yield spread between new investments and the cost of debt was in its best position in some time.
    • +Caret could add value that is not fully reflected in current earnings, as Safehold owns an 84% stake in it and estimated the portfolio's unrealized capital appreciation at approximately $9.3 billion. Management is exploring avenues such as liquidity, sales, or other forms of monetization to demonstrate this value, without announcing a specific transaction.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Real estate risks remain geographically and sectorally concentrated; the ten largest markets represent approximately 65% of total book value, while affordable housing activity through the end of fiscal year 2025 was concentrated in California, where eight affordable housing transactions accounted for eight of the nine ground leases closed in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025.
    • −Office properties remain a pressure point for asset valuations and Caret; management said that office valuation reductions had been painful for several years and that some slower markets had not fully recovered, despite noting improvement in core markets such as New York and initial stabilization in values.
    • −The Park Hotels case represents tangible legal and operational exposure; management identified a court date during the first quarter of 2027 and estimated the cost of reaching that stage at approximately $7 million. It also explained that final decisions concerning two assets that were not renewed would depend on the course of the litigation and that operating these assets is not a long-term objective for the company.
    • −Management expects net general and administrative expenses to increase from the low $40 million range during fiscal year 2025 to the high $40 million range during fiscal year 2026, representing a net increase of approximately $5 million, as management fees from Star Holdings continue to decline.
    • −The business model is sensitive to the cost of capital because Safehold finances a $7.1 billion portfolio with debt totaling approximately $4.9 billion at the end of fiscal year 2025. Despite hedges and long maturities, funding growth or repurchasing shares must take into account the goal of keeping the debt-to-equity ratio near 2 times or lower.
    • −The valuation receives no clear support from a range of analyst opinions because the consensus target of $16 is identical to both the highest and lowest available targets. This target lies within the 52-week range of $12.76–$17.45, while the absence of a published price-to-earnings ratio deprives investors of an additional earnings-based valuation anchor.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $16 and identical highest and lowest targets of $16, meaning there is no diverse range of estimates that can be used to measure differences in views. The target is approximately 8.3% below the 52-week high of $17.45 and approximately 25.4% above the low of $12.76; no published price-to-earnings ratio is available, so the stock's valuation depends more heavily on earnings growth, Caret's value, the cost of capital, and real estate and legal risks.

    BuyAnalyst target: $16(+14.0%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Safehold generate its revenue and profits?

    Safehold generates its income primarily from a portfolio of modern, long-term ground leases for institutional-quality properties, supplemented by selective leasehold loans that typically have a three-year term with a potential extension period. In fiscal year 2025, the company committed $277 million across 17 ground leases and $152 million across four loans, for a total of $429 million. The portfolio's cash yield was 3.8% and its annualized accounting yield was 5.4%, while its economic yield calculated on an internal rate of return basis was 5.9%.

    What are Safehold's key figures for the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

    Revenue in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 totaled approximately $114.6 million, compared with $110.9 million in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026. Net income increased from $28.9 million to $30.2 million, while earnings per share rose from $0.40 to $0.42. Gross profit was $113.9 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 99.4%.

    What is Caret, and why is it important to SAFE shareholders?

    Caret is linked to unrealized appreciation in the value of the properties above the ground leases, and Safehold owns an 84% stake in it. The portfolio's estimated unrealized capital appreciation reached $9.3 billion at the end of fiscal year 2025, an increase of approximately $200 million from the previous quarter. Management believes this value is not fully recognized by the market and is therefore exploring ways to increase its visibility through liquidity, sales, or other forms of monetization, without announcing a specific transaction.

    Can Safehold fund its growth in fiscal year 2026?

    Safehold ended fiscal year 2025 with approximately $1.2 billion in liquidity, in addition to potential capacity available through its joint venture. Unfunded commitments totaled approximately $265 million, including $140 million for ground leases and $125 million for leasehold loans, and are expected to be deployed over six to seven quarters. The average debt maturity was also 18 years, with no significant maturities before 2029, and the company held ratings of A3 from Moody's, A- from S&P, and A- from Fitch, all with stable outlooks.

    What risks are associated with the office portfolio and the Park Hotels case?

    Management said on the fourth-quarter fiscal year 2025 call that office valuations had been under pressure for several years and that some markets were still recovering more slowly despite improvement in New York. This affects the estimated unrealized appreciation and the ease of demonstrating Caret's value to investors. In the Park Hotels case, a court date was set during the first quarter of 2027 at an expected cost of $7 million, and certain decisions regarding the two non-renewed assets will remain tied to the course of the litigation.

    What is Safehold's management targeting during 2026?

    Management identified three priorities for 2026: increasing ground lease volume compared with fiscal year 2025, improving recognition of Caret's value, and beginning to use the authorized share repurchase program when trading windows and market conditions permit. The company is also seeking to expand its affordable housing platform into new states and with new sponsors, and it had several transactions in other states under letters of intent as of February 12, 2026. At the same time, management intends to execute repurchases in an approximately leverage-neutral manner while keeping the debt-to-equity ratio near 2 times or lower.