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Stocks
Ryanair Holdings plc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall67
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 7/9Better than 67% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
87
9.9x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
57
—7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
58
—4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
83
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
35
1.04%▼2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
30
-0.6%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
42
4▲3Around median
RYAAY

RYAAY Ryanair Holdings plc

Ryanair Holdings plc · NASDAQ
Market Closed
53.80
▲ ⁦+1.51%⁩ (+0.80)
Market Cap$27.9B
Beta0.97
52w Low52w High
52.8974.24
Last Week
⁦-1.65%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.37%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.41%⁩
Last Year
⁦-8.46%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$54
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$77
⁦+42%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$63–$80⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$73.97
⁦+37.5%⁩
Current Price $53.80·Median $76.50
Low
$62.90
High
$80.00
Current price
$53.80
Average target
$73.97
Street summary

Ryanair (RYAAY) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

Ryanair stock has seen a 6.96% decline in its average price target over the past 30 days, with the consensus dropping from 79.5 to 73.97. This adjustment reflects a more cautious outlook from the four analysts, although the current price (55.37) remains below the lowest observed price target (62.9), indicating a valuation gap favoring the upside despite the lowered forecasts.

As of 2026-08-31
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-7.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.33
Buy
Analyst coverage
6
Buy conviction
100%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time6 analysts rating
2
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.75 → 4.33
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-24
    Raymond James
    Strong Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-14
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Bernstein
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    9.87x
    5.69x45.54x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.53x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    5.87x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.4%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    —
    —
  • EPS Growth YoY
    —
    —
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    1.0%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-20 data

Company Overview

Ryanair Holdings operates a low-cost European airline network, and its revenue model is based on the sale of scheduled seats alongside ancillary services such as baggage and seat selection. In Q1 FY2027, the group carried 61.3 million passengers, up 6%, while scheduled revenue amounted to €2.91 billion, down 1% due to a 6% decline in average fares. Ancillary revenue was about €24 per passenger, with total ancillary sales growing roughly in line with traffic despite remaining flat on a per-passenger basis.

In Q1 FY2027, profit after tax was €538 million, down 34% from €820 million in the comparative period, as the price of unhedged jet fuel doubled to $151 per barrel and the first half of the Easter holiday shifted to Q4 of the previous fiscal year. Unit cost rose 5%, while unit cost excluding fuel increased by only 2%, showing that the pressure on profitability came mainly from fuel, a 5% decline in revenue per passenger, and a 6% fall in fares, rather than a loss of control over core operating expenses.

On an annual basis, revenue increased from $10.8 billion in FY2023 to $13.4 billion in FY2024 and then $13.9 billion in FY2025. However, net income declined from $1.9 billion in FY2024 to $1.6 billion in FY2025, while earnings per share fell from 1.6743 to 1.4549, indicating that revenue growth did not fully translate into profit growth during FY2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • On July 20, 2026, Ryanair lowered its Q2 FY2027 fare outlook from broadly flat to a low- to mid-single-digit decline, and management said the trend had moved closer to the middle of that range due to late booking, early discounting, and uncertainty related to the Middle East conflict.
  • Fuel remains the largest swing factor in FY2027: Q1 profit after tax fell 34% when the price of the unhedged portion of fuel doubled to $151 per barrel, but the company hedged 80% of its FY2027 requirements at $67 per barrel and began hedging FY2028 at 15% at about $85.
  • The group is targeting 216 million passengers in FY2027, up 4%, following 6% Q1 traffic growth to 61.3 million passengers. During summer 2026, it is operating three new bases in Rabat, Tirana, and Trapani and more than 130 new routes, while shifting aircraft away from high-cost airports such as Vienna, Dublin, and Berlin to markets offering lower taxes and growth-related fees.
  • The next phase of fleet efficiency depends on the Boeing 737 MAX 10; on the July 20, 2026 call, management said Boeing was targeting certification in late September or mid-October 2026 and that the first 15 delivery slots were protected for spring 2027. Ryanair says the aircraft provides 20% more seats with 20% lower fuel consumption, as part of an order for 300 aircraft scheduled for delivery through March 2034.
  • On August 11, 2026, Ryanair signed a five-year partnership with Google Cloud to use Gemini and DeepMind models in crew scheduling and operational decision support. This may improve the efficiency of disruption management and real-time decisions, but the context did not provide a financial target or quantified savings for the partnership.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Ryanair repaid its final €1.2 billion bond in May 2026 from internal cash flows, leaving the group essentially net-debt-free, with gross liquidity exceeding €2.8 billion at the end of Q1 FY2027 and a €1.1 billion revolving credit facility that was largely undrawn.
  • +Hedging 80% of FY2027 fuel at $67 per barrel provides substantial protection from oil volatility, while management indicated that European competitors face higher increases in unit costs. In Q1 FY2027, Ryanair's cost excluding fuel rose by only 2% despite 6% traffic growth.
  • +The order for 300 MAX 10 aircraft can support lower-cost growth through March 2034 because each aircraft is designed to provide 20% more seats with 20% lower fuel consumption. Management also expects to open two in-house engine maintenance facilities in 2029 in partnership with CFM to reduce dependence on high-cost external engine maintenance.
  • +The flexibility to move aircraft between airports gives Ryanair tangible bargaining power; it reduced capacity in Vienna and decided to close its Berlin base by the end of summer 2026, while expanding in Albania, Morocco, Slovakia, and Italy. Management said the proposed reduction in Dublin Airport charges starting in summer 2027 could prompt it to add two million seats there.
  • +The company continued returning capital to shareholders through a €750 million share buyback program that was 90% complete on July 20, 2026, alongside €400 million in dividends during 2026. At the same time, management explained that it would prioritize funding MAX 10 aircraft and engine facilities and rebuilding gross liquidity to about €4 billion before considering a new buyback program in spring 2027.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $73.97 and a relatively wide range between $62.9 and $80. The average target is very close to the upper end of the 52-week range of $74.24, while the highest target exceeds that level and the lowest target falls within it, reflecting differing assessments of the impact of weak fares and fuel versus balance-sheet strength and cost advantages. The data did not provide a valid comparable price-to-earnings ratio, so the target range and the 52-week range between $53.14 and $74.24 remain the available valuation anchors.

BuyAnalyst target: $73.97(+37.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

Why did Ryanair's profit decline in Q1 FY2027 despite passenger growth?

Passenger numbers rose 6% to 61.3 million in Q1 FY2027, but average fares declined 6% and revenue per passenger fell 5%. The price of unhedged jet fuel doubled to $151 per barrel, raising unit cost by 5%. As a result, profit after tax declined 34% to €538 million from €820 million, while the Easter comparison, which benefited the previous period, also had an impact.

What does Ryanair expect for ticket fares and passenger traffic in FY2027?

On July 20, 2026, management maintained its FY2027 traffic target of 216 million passengers, representing 4% growth. The company expects growth of about 6% in the first half and then 2% in the second half due to reduced winter schedules. Q2 FY2027 fares are now trending toward a low- or mid-single-digit decline, and management did not provide full-year profit guidance due to limited visibility for the second half.

How does Ryanair protect its earnings from rising fuel prices?

The company covered 80% of its FY2027 fuel at $67 per barrel, limiting the impact of oil shocks on most of its consumption. 20% remained unhedged, and the price of this portion doubled to $151 per barrel in Q1 FY2027, contributing to the decline in profit. Ryanair also began hedging FY2028 at 15% at about $85 per barrel and covered about 18% of its operating expenses for that year at an exchange rate of $1.20 per euro.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Pricing power deteriorated in Q1 FY2027, as average fares declined 6% and revenue per passenger fell 5%, after which management revised its Q2 outlook to a low- or mid-single-digit decline instead of flat pricing. It also said on July 20, 2026 that the second half would require more price stimulation and did not provide meaningful FY2027 profit guidance due to the lack of visibility for the period.
  • −20% of FY2027 fuel remains unhedged, and this exposure was a major reason Q1 profit after tax fell 34% when the price of unhedged fuel doubled to $151 per barrel. Initial FY2028 hedging covers only 15% at about $85 per barrel, leaving earnings in later periods more exposed to oil volatility.
  • −Traffic growth within FY2027 will slow from about 6% in the first half to only 2% in the second half, despite the full-year target remaining at 216 million passengers and 4% growth. This distribution of growth means the second half will benefit less from spreading costs across a larger number of passengers, and the CFO indicated that unit costs could rise slightly during that period.
  • −Capacity and efficiency gains starting in summer 2027 depend on Boeing certifying the MAX 10 and delivering the first 15 aircraft in spring 2027. The aircraft was still uncertified on the July 20, 2026 call, and any delay relative to the timeline management cited from Boeing could postpone the benefits of additional seats and fuel efficiency and increase fleet management requirements.
  • −FY2027 carries an increase of about €300 million in EU and other taxes, alongside increases in crew wages and maintenance costs. Maintenance expenses also rose 15% in Q1 amid higher engine maintenance costs and a global capacity shortage, while the two planned in-house engine maintenance facilities will not begin operating before 2029.
  • −Ryanair faces additional regulatory exposure from proposed ETS amendments and carry-on baggage advertising rules; extending ETS to flights to Albania and Morocco could increase the cost of some routes, while baggage rules may require the display of higher fares that include two bags. Management expects the baggage rules to be revenue-neutral, but that is a management estimate that has not yet been tested over a full fiscal year.
How important are Boeing 737 MAX 10 aircraft to Ryanair's growth story?

Ryanair's order includes 300 MAX 10 aircraft scheduled for delivery through March 2034. According to management, the aircraft provides 20% more seats with 20% lower fuel consumption, which could reduce cost per passenger and create greater scope for ancillary revenue. On the July 20, 2026 call, the company said the first 15 delivery slots were protected for spring 2027, but delivery depends on Boeing completing certification, which it was targeting for late September or mid-October 2026.

Can Ryanair's balance sheet fund aircraft purchases and capital returns to shareholders?

Ryanair repaid a €1.2 billion bond in May 2026 and ended Q1 FY2027 with gross liquidity exceeding €2.8 billion and 620 unencumbered Boeing 737 aircraft. The €750 million buyback program was 90% complete on July 20, 2026, alongside planned dividends of €400 million during 2026. Capital expenditure estimates are about €2 billion in FY2027 and between €2.7 billion and €3 billion in FY2028, with a target of rebuilding gross liquidity to about €4 billion before an additional buyback program.

What does Ryanair's partnership with Google Cloud add to its operations?

Ryanair announced a five-year agreement with Google Cloud on August 11, 2026. The agreement includes deploying Gemini tools and DeepMind models in flight crew scheduling and operational decision support. The use case aims to automate complex tasks and improve responses to real-time changes, but the announcement did not specify financial savings or a numerical profit target.