| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 25 | 29.5x | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 76 | 63.2% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 23 | 0.3% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 15 | 21.8x | 2.6x | Bottom tier | |
Capital Return | 7 | — | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 6 | -43.5% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 45 | 12 | 3 | Around median |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Sunrun develops and operates residential solar and storage systems under a subscription model, describing its business as a network of distributed power plants that provides customers with potential electricity savings and backup power while enabling the company to generate value from long-term contracts, grid services, and capital recycling. Its customer base exceeded 1.1 million, and it ended fiscal year 2025 with more than 237 thousand systems combining solar and storage, then increased grid storage capacity from approximately 4 gigawatt-hours to 4.3 gigawatt-hours in fiscal Q1 2026.
In fiscal Q1 2026, Sunrun recorded revenue of $722.2 million, net income of $167.6 million, and earnings per share of $0.62. The company added approximately 19 thousand customers, and the storage attachment rate reached 73%, up two points from the previous quarter, while average system size increased 5%. Systems financed under the non-retained or partially retained model represented 23% of subscriber additions, illustrating the diversity of the value-realization mix between retained assets and partnerships that provide upfront cash proceeds.
For fiscal year 2025, revenue reached $3.0 billion, net income was $449.9 million, and earnings per share were $1.71, while revenue for the twelve months ended fiscal Q1 2026 was approximately $3.2 billion and net income was $567.6 million. However, news on August 6 and September 1, 2026 showed a subsequent deterioration in the operating picture, as management lowered its fiscal year 2026 outlook following declines in subscriber additions and unit margins, despite fiscal Q2 2026 results exceeding revenue and earnings estimates.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The average analyst price target is $16.5, within a wide range of $12 to $20, with the consensus rated “Buy”; the average is approximately 26% below the 52-week range high of $22.44, while remaining well above the range low of $8.49. The available price-to-earnings ratio does not provide a valuation anchor, while Goldman Sachs lowering its target on August 6, 2026 and the company reducing its annual outlook impose a risk discount on the buying case reflected by the consensus.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Sunrun relies on subscriptions for residential solar and storage systems, in addition to selling some systems and generating value from grid services and capital recycling. Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue was approximately $722.2 million, net income was $167.6 million, and earnings per share were $0.62. In the same quarter, 23% of subscriber additions came through the non-retained or partially retained model, which provides upfront proceeds while the company retains a share of long-term cash flows and grid services.
The reduction in the fiscal year 2026 outlook overshadowed fiscal Q2 2026 earnings and revenue exceeding estimates. Subscriber additions declined 31%, installed solar capacity fell 23%, and installed storage capacity decreased 15%, while the upfront net subscriber value margin dropped to 3.7%. Goldman Sachs lowering its price target on August 6, 2026 further increased market concerns about volumes, liquidity, and unit profitability.
The storage attachment rate reached 73% in fiscal Q1 2026, up two points from the previous quarter, and grid capacity reached 4.3 gigawatt-hours. The controllable storage fleet grew by more than 50% year over year, enabling the company to provide backup power and grid services rather than merely selling solar energy savings. Sunrun also launched a standalone battery and had sold thousands of units by the May 7, 2026 call.
Sunrun ended fiscal Q1 2026 with $680 million in unrestricted cash and $626 million in parent-company secured debt, after repaying $92 million during the quarter. Since the beginning of the year, it raised $774 million in asset-level debt financing without parent-company guarantees and had more than $675 million in unused commitments to finance more than 250 megawatts. Conversely, cash generation during the quarter was negative $59 million, or negative $31 million excluding $28 million in safe-harbor equipment investments.
The Section 25D consumer tax credit associated with cash purchases or loan financing expired on December 31, 2025. Management said on May 7, 2026 that Sunrun's contract origination relies almost entirely on subscriptions, so it did not experience the same impact that affected small dealers and partners reliant on that credit. Nevertheless, the company remains connected to the broader tax-financing ecosystem and allocated between $50 and $100 million in fiscal year 2026 to safe-harbor investments intended to secure the use of the solar tax credit through 2030.
Sunrun added approximately 19 thousand customers in fiscal Q1 2026, but customer additions were lower year over year, and subscriber additions then declined 31% in fiscal Q2 2026. Conversely, the active sales force grew by more than 20% since the beginning of the year, and March 2026 bookings increased by more than 30% compared with February 2026. Therefore, the critical signals are whether booking growth converts into actual installations, whether the net upfront subscriber margin recovers from 3.7%, and whether cash generation improves.
