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Stocks
Republic Services, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall66
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 6/9SafeBetter than 66% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
34
31.5x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
19
2.9%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
81
11.6%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
61
2.7x2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
41
1.12%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
56
-5.9%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
97
17▲3Top tier
RSG

RSG Republic Services, Inc.

Republic Services, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
222.74
▲ ⁦+0.75%⁩ (+1.66)
Market Cap$68.5B
Beta0.40
52w Low52w High
196.41233.42
Last Week
⁦+0.10%⁩
Last Month
⁦+3.56%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+4.77%⁩
Last Year
⁦-2.76%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$223
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$234
⁦+5%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$232–$249⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$96
⁦-57%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$96–$234⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$237.25
⁦+6.5%⁩
Current Price $222.74·Median $234.00
Low
$232.00
High
$249.00
Current price
$222.74
Average target
$237.25
Street summary

A slight rise in consensus with a decline in the number of analysts

The consensus price target rose to 237.25 from 235.60 over the last 30 days, an increase of 1.65 or 0.7%, while remaining unchanged over the last 7 days or one day. The consensus stands at 237.25 compared with the current price of 222.71, with a high target of 249, a low of 232, and a median of 234, reflecting relatively limited dispersion among estimates but not eliminating differences in viewpoints.

As of 2026-09-04
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-0.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦27 (-7)⁩
Buy conviction
56%
Mixed
Target dispersion
8%
Analyst ratings over time27 analysts rating
3
12
12
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.58 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-11
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-10
    Citigroup
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-12
    UBS
    Neutral· $223.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    31.55x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    29.07x
    4.57x36.58x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.75x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    3.9%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    2.9%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    4.4%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    49.3%
    8.6%54.6%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    11.6%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.71x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.1%
    0.1%4.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    35.2%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.06
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

Republic Services provides essential recycling and waste management services through residential, commercial, and industrial waste collection and containers, landfill operations, and the sale of recycled materials. Through Environmental Solutions, it also provides field and industrial services, water treatment, hazardous waste disposal, and emergency response. The company also supports revenue through renewable natural gas projects and Polymer Centers, while profitability depends on pricing, route efficiency, waste volumes, fuel recovery fees, and recycled commodity prices. The company retained more than 94% of customers, strengthening its ability to pass through price increases while preserving its revenue base.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, the financial statements reported revenue of $5.1 billion, gross profit of $2.5 billion, net income of $566.1 million, and earnings per share of $1.84; this equates to a gross profit margin of approximately 49% and a net income margin of approximately 11.1%. Management reported revenue growth of 4.6% and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth of 4.5%, with the adjusted margin unchanged at 32.1% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.85. For the twelve months ended in 2026, revenue was $21.2 billion, gross profit was $11.4 billion, and net income was $2.2 billion.

The performance mix was driven more by pricing than volumes; price yield was 3.4% of total revenue and 4% of activity-based revenue, while organic volume declined 1.6% and 1.9%, respectively. Environmental Solutions increased its revenue by $53 million compared with the previous quarter and achieved a margin of 20.2%, but reduced the company's total organic revenue growth by 0.2 percentage points year over year. In recycling, increased Polymer Centers volumes offset the decline in recycled commodity prices to $136 per ton from $149 per ton.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Republic Services raised its fiscal year 2026 guidance to revenue of between $17.2 billion and $17.3 billion, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of between $5.525 billion and $5.55 billion, adjusted earnings per share of between $7.23 and $7.28, and adjusted free cash flow of between $2.54 billion and $2.575 billion.
  • Pricing strength is offsetting weak volumes; core price was 5.3% of total revenue and 6.4% of activity-based revenue, including 7.8% in the open market, while price yield exceeded cost inflation and contributed to a 90-basis-point expansion in the underlying business margin.
  • Artificial intelligence tools for pricing and route optimization target potential value of $100 million, and initial trials of the RISE platform confirmed the expected value, while management aims to approach this impact by the end of 2027. The company also uses digital tools to improve the handling of 11 million incoming calls annually, reduce customer attrition, and improve route efficiency.
  • The company spent $860 million on strategic acquisitions during the first half of fiscal year 2026, then stated on the August 6, 2026 call that it had closed investments totaling just under $1.2 billion and included the impact of the closed transactions in its guidance. The expected contribution of acquisitions to revenue growth increased from 0.7 to 1.0 percentage points, with the transaction pipeline remaining strong in Recycling & Waste and Environmental Solutions.
  • The sustainability business is expanding through the commissioning of two renewable natural gas projects in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, with a target of commissioning two additional projects by the end of 2026, alongside more than 250 electric collection trucks and a target of exceeding 300 trucks by the end of 2026. The company expects its sustainability portfolio to deliver an annual increase of $40 million in revenue and $20 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.
  • Insider data through August 25, 2026 shows a strong buying signal, with three-month net activity of $561.4 million and 44 purchases versus one sale. This signal supports the apparent internal confidence in the company's trajectory, while remaining a supplementary factor to operating performance rather than a substitute for evaluating volumes, margins, and cash flows.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case5 pts

  • +Republic Services' model combines recurring essential services with clear pricing power; price yield exceeded cost inflation, customer retention was more than 94%, and the underlying business margin expanded by 90 basis points in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 before the impact of offsetting items.
  • +Management raised all key financial targets for fiscal year 2026 after exceeding revenue and earnings estimates, and the adjusted free cash flow range is now $2.54 billion to $2.575 billion after generating $1.58 billion during the first half.
  • +Environmental Solutions, PFAS, and sustainability provide additional growth avenues; the PFAS business exceeded $100 million in revenue in the previous year and is on track to surpass that in 2026, while the Environmental Solutions margin increased by 100 basis points compared with the previous quarter to 20.2%.
  • +Artificial intelligence investments and the RISE platform could expand operating leverage at significant scale, as the company targets $100 million in value from pricing and route optimization and deploys the solutions across millions of customers and thousands of routes.
  • +The company returned more than $1 billion to shareholders during the first half of fiscal year 2026 through dividends and the repurchase of approximately 1% of outstanding shares, and it also increased its dividend for the twenty-third consecutive year.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Buy, with an average price target of $237.25 and a range of $232 to $249. The average is slightly above the high of the 52-week range of $235.18, while the stock's full range extends from $196.41 to $235.18; this ties the positive case to continued pricing strength and execution of fiscal year 2026 guidance. Conversely, the provided data does not include a valid comparable earnings multiple, and the risks of weak volumes, margin pressure, and acquisition integration costs remain key factors when evaluating analyst targets.

BuyAnalyst target: $237.25(+6.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were RSG's key results in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

Republic Services reported revenue of $5.1 billion, gross profit of $2.5 billion, and net income of $566.1 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. Reported earnings per share were $1.84, while adjusted earnings per share were $1.85. Management reported revenue growth of 4.6% and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth of 4.5%, with an adjusted margin of 32.1%.

Why did Republic Services raise its fiscal year 2026 guidance?

The company raised its revenue range to $17.2–$17.3 billion and its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range to $5.525–$5.55 billion. The revision was based on higher-than-expected fuel recovery fees through July 2026, a higher recycled commodity price assumption, and the contribution of closed acquisitions. Management stated that the assumptions for price, volume, and underlying cost inflation remained broadly consistent with its original expectations.

How does RSG use artificial intelligence in its business?

Republic Services uses artificial intelligence-based predictive technology to determine the optimal price for each customer based on dozens of variables, balancing yield and customer retention. The RISE platform integrates advanced algorithms to improve routes, safety, and service execution quality, and initial trials confirmed the expected value. Management estimates the pricing and route opportunity at approximately $100 million, with progress toward that level by the end of 2027 without expecting to exceed the usual pace of margin expansion in 2027.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

  • −Volumes remain the primary operating weakness; organic volume declined 1.6% of total revenue and 1.9% of activity-based revenue in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, with large-container volumes down 2.2% due to weak construction activity and residential volumes down 4.3% due to the loss of known contracts. Management expects residential volumes to remain down approximately 3% to 3.5% in the second half of fiscal year 2026 and approximately 2% in 2027, according to its outlook on August 6, 2026.
  • −Margins face near-term pressure despite the strength of the underlying business; a 90-basis-point expansion in the underlying business was offset by a 50-basis-point decline due to exceptional landfill volumes in the comparison year, 30 basis points due to net fuel, and 10 basis points due to recycled commodity prices. Management expects the Q3 fiscal year 2026 margin to be approximately flat year over year before expansion resumes in Q4 of fiscal year 2026.
  • −Parts of the raised guidance depend on volatile factors rather than a fresh improvement in price and volume; of the approximately $150 million increase at the midpoint of the revenue range, the contribution came exclusively from fuel recovery fees, closed acquisitions, and the increase in the assumed recycled commodity price from $115 to $135 per ton. Approximately $25 million of the increase at the midpoint of the earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization range was also linked to higher commodity prices, making a potential decline a risk to results.
  • −Acquisition activity increases execution and financing risks; debt was $14.2 billion, liquidity was $2.8 billion, and leverage was approximately 2.6 times at the end of Q2 of fiscal year 2026, alongside the closing of investments totaling just under $1.2 billion. Management confirmed that most acquisition integration costs will fall in Q3 and Q4 of fiscal year 2026, pressuring margins before the full benefits are realized.
  • −The company faces competition from low-cost operators in a limited number of markets, and management described these competitors as a source of disruption when building revenue portfolios for subsequent sale. The $100 million in artificial intelligence benefits is also not immediate because deploying optimized routes requires changing driver behavior and working site by site, and management does not expect to exceed the usual pace of margin expansion in 2027.
  • −PFAS regulation remains a legal and operational exposure that should be monitored; on August 6, 2026, the company discussed a New York proposal to treat landfill leachate for PFAS before discharge and confirmed its participation in regulatory discussions at both the federal and local levels. Management does not view this as a material risk, but any additional treatment requirements could necessitate operational modifications and compliance costs.
  • −The average analyst target of $237.25 reflects elevated expectations, as it exceeds the high of the 52-week range of $235.18, while the highest target is $249 and the lowest is $232. Therefore, achieving the target valuation depends on executing the raised guidance and overcoming weak volumes, and any shortfall in margins or acquisition integration could pressure the re-rating.
What is the state of waste volumes and pricing at Republic Services?

Core price was 5.3% of total revenue and 6.4% of activity-based revenue in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, while price yield was 3.4% and 4%, respectively. Conversely, volume declined 1.6% of total revenue and 1.9% of activity-based revenue, and 1.3% of the total revenue decline was related to exceptional landfill volumes in the comparison year. Large-container volumes declined 2.2% and residential volumes declined 4.3%, while municipal solid waste landfill volumes increased 1.1%.

What are the growth opportunities in Environmental Solutions and sustainability?

Environmental Solutions revenue increased by $53 million compared with the previous quarter, and its margin reached 20.2% in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 after improving by 100 basis points. The PFAS business exceeded $100 million in revenue in the previous year, and management expects it to surpass that level in 2026, with an opportunity pipeline spanning landfills, water treatment, and field services. The sustainability portfolio is also expected to generate an additional $40 million in revenue and an additional $20 million in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization in 2026.

What are the main risks to monitor for RSG stock?

The primary operating risks are continued weakness in construction and residential volumes, as management expects residential volumes to decline by approximately 3% to 3.5% in the second half of fiscal year 2026. Comparisons with exceptional landfill volumes and acquisition integration costs also pressure margins, with the margin expected to be approximately flat year over year in Q3 of fiscal year 2026. Additional risks include volatility in fuel and recycled commodity prices, debt of $14.2 billion, and regulatory discussions concerning PFAS treatment.