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Home
Stocks
Ross Stores, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 6/9Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
35
27.8x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
66
14.0%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
80
22.2%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
84
0.1x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
61
0.70%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
78
69.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
85
14▲3Top tier
ROST

ROST Ross Stores, Inc.

Ross Stores, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
230.74
▲ ⁦+2.33%⁩ (+5.26)
Market Cap$74.0B
Beta0.86
52w Low52w High
143.39257.00
Last Week
⁦-0.40%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.05%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-3.50%⁩
Last Year
⁦+54.61%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$231
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$283
⁦+22%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$234–$310⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$175
⁦-24%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.2⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$175–$283⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$274.14
⁦+18.8%⁩
Current Price $230.74·Median $282.50
Low
$234.00
High
$310.00
Current price
$230.74
Average target
$274.14
Street summary

Ross Stores (ROST) Price Target Update

Bullish tilt

The price target for 'Ross Stores' has seen a notable positive revision over the past thirty days, with the average forecast rising by 5.48% to reach 274.14, despite the number of analysts remaining steady at 5. The stock is currently trading at 228.55, a level even lower than the lowest price target set by analysts (234), indicating a potential growth gap and a collective optimism that the fair value of the stock significantly exceeds its current levels.

As of 2026-08-28
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+6.7%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.70
Buy
Analyst coverage
20
Buy conviction
70%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
33%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time20 analysts rating
2
12
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.70 → 3.70
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    Jefferies
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    Barclays
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    27.80x
    4.56x36.49x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    27.73x
    3.79x30.29x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    19.40x
    2.75x22.03x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    4.5%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.0%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    31.5%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    29.7%
    12.0%66.5%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    22.2%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.11x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.7%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    19.5%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-20 data

Company Overview

Ross Stores operates an off-price retail model that relies on purchasing merchandise and closeout deals from a network of suppliers and then selling them at prices below those of traditional retailers. The company operates through the Ross and dd's DISCOUNTS chains; Ross maintains a mix of price points, while dd's is positioned at lower price points. Growth depends on increasing store traffic, improving the brand and fashion assortment, accelerating inventory turnover, and opening new locations, with marketing and an enhanced store experience helping attract new customers, recapture lapsed customers, and increase visit frequency among existing customers.

In Q2 of fiscal 2027, sales rose 13% to $6.3 billion, and comparable-store sales grew 10%, driven primarily by an increase in transactions. Net income reached $851 million versus $508 million in the corresponding period, and earnings per share rose to $2.66 from $1.56. Operating margin improved by 610 basis points, but 405 basis points of this improvement came from tariff refunds; excluding them, the operating improvement was 205 basis points.

Performance was broad-based across both chains, categories, and regions, led by home and cosmetics, with the more fashion-oriented parts of home, such as décor and housewares, recording mid-teens growth. dd's DISCOUNTS also delivered a strong quarter, although its one-year performance trailed Ross, while its cumulative two-year performance was very close. During the first six months of fiscal 2026, sales rose 17% to $12.3 billion, comparable-store sales increased 13%, and earnings per share climbed to $4.69 from $3.03.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Comparable-store sales grew 10% in Q2 of fiscal 2027, marking the second consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, with the increase driven primarily by transactions as the company attracted new customers, recaptured lapsed customers, and increased visit frequency among existing customers.
  • Ross Stores raised its fiscal 2026 outlook to earnings per share of between $8.61 and $8.77, compared with earnings of $6.61 in fiscal 2025, after the outlook published on August 17, 2026 had ranged from $7.50 to $7.74.
  • The company expects comparable-store sales growth of between 6% and 7% in Q3 of fiscal 2026, with total sales growth of between 9% and 11% and earnings per share of between $1.75 and $1.83, followed by comparable growth of between 4% and 5% in Q4 of fiscal 2026 on top of 9% growth in the corresponding period.
  • The company increased its 2026 store-opening plan from 110 to 115 locations, including 51 locations in Q3 comprising 41 Ross stores and 10 dd's stores, while new stores opened during the year performed above the planned level of 70% to 75%.
  • The strength of the results supported analyst confidence; on August 21, 2026, Citigroup raised its price target to $290 while maintaining its Buy rating, after quarterly earnings per share reached $2.66 versus expectations of $1.94 and comparable sales growth reached 10%.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The 10% comparable-store sales growth in Q2 of fiscal 2027 appears relatively high quality because management attributed it primarily to increased transactions rather than price increases alone, with contributions from new, lapsed, and existing customers across multiple income and age groups.
  • +Operating economics improved even after excluding tariff refunds; underlying operating margin rose by 205 basis points, merchandise margin increased by 110 basis points, and distribution costs declined by the equivalent of 100 basis points due to favorable timing of deferred inventory expenses and higher productivity.
  • +The company combines expansion with cash returns to shareholders; it plans to open 115 locations in 2026, repurchased approximately 1.4 million shares for $319 million during the quarter, and still targets total share repurchases of $1.275 billion during 2026 under a $2.55 billion authorization.
  • +The abundance of closeout deals and the addition of better suppliers and brands support Ross and dd's ability to broaden their assortment without abandoning their value positioning, while in-store inventory turnover remained strong and clearance levels remained low despite higher inventory to support demand.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst target is $274.14, with a wide range of $234 to $310 and a consensus Buy rating, while Citigroup raised its target to $290 on August 21, 2026 and maintained its Buy rating. The average target exceeds the upper end of the 52-week range of $257, while the high target exceeds that level by approximately 21%, but the cited price-to-earnings multiple of 28.8 times already reflects high growth expectations. Optimism is based on the raised fiscal 2026 earnings outlook, although $0.60 per share of the increase comes from tariff refunds, making the sustainability of sales growth and underlying margins a critical factor in the valuation.

BuyAnalyst target: $274.14(+18.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove ROST's results in Q2 of fiscal 2027?

Sales rose 13% to $6.3 billion, comparable-store sales increased 10%, and most of the growth resulted from a higher number of transactions. Ross and dd's attracted new customers and recaptured lapsed customers, while existing customers visited more frequently and increased their spending. Home and cosmetics led performance, and the Midwest was the strongest region. Net income rose to $851 million and earnings per share increased to $2.66.

What is Ross Stores' outlook for fiscal 2026?

The company expects annual earnings per share of between $8.61 and $8.77, compared with $6.61 in fiscal 2025. The outlook includes approximately $0.60 per share from tariff refunds. In Q3 of fiscal 2026, it expects comparable growth of between 6% and 7% and earnings per share of between $1.75 and $1.83. For Q4 of fiscal 2026, it expects comparable growth of between 4% and 5% and earnings per share of between $2.17 and $2.26.

Did Ross Stores' margin improve operationally or because of tariff refunds?

Operating margin rose by 610 basis points in Q2 of fiscal 2027, but tariff refunds contributed approximately 405 basis points. Excluding this effect, the operating improvement remained strong at 205 basis points. Merchandise margin rose by 110 basis points, distribution costs declined by the equivalent of 100 basis points, and occupancy cost leverage improved by 25 basis points. Conversely, incentives and fuel and freight costs pressured some expense items.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Results for the first six months of fiscal 2026 included tariff refunds of $253 million, or approximately $0.60 per share, and these refunds also accounted for 405 basis points of the improvement in gross and operating margins during the quarter; therefore, the entire earnings surge does not represent recurring operating improvement.
  • −Consolidated inventory rose 18% at the end of the quarter, an increase the company used to meet customer traffic and broaden the assortment, but it raises the risk of markdowns and pressure on merchandise turnover if the consumer weakens; management says turnover remained strong, markdown levels were low, and it has flexibility to adjust purchases.
  • −The outlook indicates a slowdown in comparable-store sales growth from 10% in Q2 of fiscal 2027 to 6%–7% in Q3 of fiscal 2026 and then 4%–5% in Q4, although the comparison in the final quarter is difficult following 9% growth in the corresponding period.
  • −Ross faces competition from off-price retailers and traditional chains increasing their pricing investments; management acknowledged the presence of strong competitors and the need to keep its prices below traditional retail prices, which may limit its ability to pass through price increases if the value gap narrows.
  • −Freight costs represent direct pressure on margins; higher fuel prices reduced the quarter's result by 10 basis points, and the company expects the contribution from domestic freight to continue declining in the second half of fiscal 2026. It also does not hedge fuel prices.
  • −The price-to-earnings ratio cited in the August 20, 2026 results was approximately 28.8 times, a valuation that requires continued strong growth following the jump in earnings per share and the raised guidance; any failure to achieve the $8.61–$8.77 earnings-per-share range or maintain transaction momentum could pressure this multiple.
How does Ross Stores plan to expand its store network?

The company raised its 2026 plan to 115 new locations from 110 locations. The Q3 fiscal 2026 plan includes opening 51 stores, divided between 41 Ross locations and 10 dd's locations. The annual plan also includes relocating or closing approximately 5 to 10 stores. Management said that new stores opened during the year exceeded the planned performance level of 70% to 75%, and it is pleased with the expansion in the Northeast.

What are the key risks to monitor for ROST stock?

The first risk is that $253 million, or approximately $0.60 per share, of the results for the first six months of fiscal 2026 came from tariff refunds. Consolidated inventory also rose 18%, which could increase the need for markdowns if demand slows, despite management's confirmation of strong turnover and low current markdown levels. The company faces higher freight costs due to fuel without hedging, along with price competition from traditional retailers and off-price companies. The outlook also indicates that comparable-store sales growth will slow to 6%–7% and then 4%–5% in the next two quarters.

How do analysts view ROST's valuation?

The analyst consensus is Buy, and the average price target is $274.14. The target range extends from $234 to $310, reflecting a meaningful difference in estimates of the sustainability of growth and margins. On August 21, 2026, Citigroup raised its target to $290 after quarterly earnings per share of $2.66 versus expectations of $1.94. The average target exceeds the top of the 52-week range of $257, but the cited price-to-earnings multiple of 28.8 times leaves less room for error if growth slows.