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Stocks
RLJ Lodging Trust
RLJ

RLJ RLJ Lodging Trust

RLJ Lodging Trust · NYSE
Market Closed
10.88
▼ ⁦-0.55%⁩ (-0.06)
Market Cap$1.7B
Beta1.11
52w Low52w High
6.5412.89
Last Week
⁦-1.27%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.25%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+8.80%⁩
Last Year
⁦+42.41%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall45
Balanced — near the middle of the marketTurnaroundF 6/9DistressBetter than 45% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
61
60.1x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
15
1.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
20
2.8%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
35
5.5x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
63
5.51%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
93
57.3%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
64
33Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$11
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$11
⁦+1%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$11–$13⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$0.56
⁦-95%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.3⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$0.56–$11⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$11.50
⁦+5.7%⁩
Current Price $10.88·Median $11.00
Low
$11.00
High
$13.00
Current price
$10.88
Average target
$11.50
Street summary

RLJ Lodging Trust Price Target Revision Analysis

The average price target for RLJ stock saw a slight increase of 3.32% over the past 30 days, with the consensus moving from $11.13 to $11.5. Despite this improvement in targets, coverage is limited to only two analysts, indicating a weakness in the breadth of statistical confidence. The stock is currently trading at $10.89, a level below the lowest observed price target ($11), reflecting cautious optimism from the covering analysts compared to the current market price.

As of 2026-09-03
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+3.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.92
Hold
Analyst coverage
12
Buy conviction
25%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
18%
Analyst ratings over time12 analysts rating
1
2
6
1
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.83 → 2.92
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-27
    Barclays
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    Barclays
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-06-18
    Oppenheimer
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    60.09x
    5.03x40.26x
    Above average
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    11.79x
    3.68x29.40x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    8.5%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    1.1%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -104.7%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Weak
  • Gross Margin
    -5.0%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    2.8%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    5.46x
    1.55x12.39x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    5.5%
    0.6%15.6%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    331.0%
    31.2%370.0%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.46
    -0.883.10
    Near median
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

RLJ Lodging Trust operates an urban portfolio of 91 hotels, 83 of which were unencumbered by debt at the end of Q2 FY2026. Revenue depends on hotel stays driven by business, leisure, and group travel demand, alongside non-room spending such as food and beverages and event spaces. The company seeks to increase returns from its assets through renovations and conversions to lifestyle-oriented brands, including Autograph Collection, Tapestry Collection, and Compass by Margaritaville.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $383.0 million, net income was $31.0 million, and earnings per share were $0.16, compared with revenue of $340.0 million and a net loss of $141 thousand in Q1 FY2026. RevPAR increased 6.8% to $167, supported by a 4.9% increase in average daily rate to $217 and a 130-basis-point rise in occupancy to 77%. Hotel EBITDA reached $119.5 million, growing 7.1%, while its margin improved 10 basis points to 31.3%.

Growth was broad-based across demand segments during Q2 FY2026; business travel revenue increased 10%, leisure revenue 7%, group revenue 6%, and non-room spending 7.1%. Markets not hosting the World Cup achieved RevPAR growth of 6.2%, while Austin recorded growth of 17%, Chicago 15%, Tampa 11%, and Northern California 9%, demonstrating that performance did not depend on a single market or event.

What's Driving the Stock

  • RLJ raised its FY2026 guidance after Q2 FY2026 results exceeded its estimates; it now expects comparable RevPAR growth of between 3.5% and 4.5%, Hotel EBITDA of between $369 million and $389 million, Adjusted EBITDA of between $336 million and $356 million, and Adjusted FFO per diluted share of between $1.37 and $1.50.
  • Business travel, the company's highest-rated customer segment, accelerated, with revenue growing 10% and room nights 6% in Q2 FY2026; business travel revenue also increased 35% in both Chicago and DC, 17% in New York, 13% in Houston, 12% in Northern California, and 10% in South Florida.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Asset investments showed a tangible impact; four high-impact renovations completed in FY2025 generated revenue growth of 22% and Hotel EBITDA growth of 50% during Q2 FY2026, while seven prior conversions generated revenue growth of 8% and hotel operating profit growth of 12%.
  • The company completed the conversion of the former Renaissance hotel in Pittsburgh into The Arrott under Autograph Collection, with management targeting approximately 35% Hotel EBITDA growth potential. It also plans to begin converting Fairfield Inn and Suites Key West into Compass by Margaritaville during FY2026 and relaunch it in 2027, with estimated asset earnings growth potential of approximately 50%.
  • Group booking pace for Q3 FY2026 reached a level equivalent to 110% of the comparable period, following 6% growth in group revenue in Q2. Preliminary RevPAR growth in July 2026 also approached 11%, after June 2026 recorded growth of 12.4%.
  • Liquidity supports capital allocation flexibility; available liquidity was approximately $1 billion, including $600 million undrawn under the credit facility, with no debt maturities until 2029. The company also sold Hyatt Place Fremont Silicon Valley during Q2 FY2026 at 29.2 times Hotel EBITDA, including required capital expenditures.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The positive case is supported by broad-based operating growth in Q2 FY2026, with RevPAR rising 6.8% and business, leisure, and group travel all advancing, in addition to RevPAR growth outperforming the industry by 110 basis points.
    • +Conversions and renovations are demonstrating strong, defined operating returns; the four high-impact renovations increased Hotel EBITDA by 50%, and management estimates earnings growth potential for the Boston, Key West, and Pittsburgh assets of 40%, 50%, and 35%, respectively.
    • +The financial structure combines approximately $1 billion in liquidity, no maturities until 2029, and 83 of 91 hotels being unencumbered, with 72% of debt fixed or hedged and a weighted average interest rate of 4.8%.
    • +The 7.1% growth in non-room spending provides an additional path to profitability, particularly with the addition of concepts such as The Drafting Room and Fulton Room in Pittsburgh and 5 O'Clock Somewhere in Key West, expanding food, beverage, and event revenue beyond hotel guests.

    ▼ Selling Case5 pts

    • −The booking window remains short and visibility limited, according to management, making demand forecasts more sensitive to economic and geopolitical changes; the company also expected Q3 FY2026 to be stronger than Q4, with approximately flat performance expected in August 2026 and Q4 pace declining year over year due to Salesforce moving from October to September and the impact of the elections.
    • −Expense inflation may limit the conversion of revenue growth into meaningful margin expansion; expenses per occupied room increased 4.9% and fixed costs rose 6.4% in Q2 FY2026, while Hotel EBITDA margin improved by only 10 basis points to 31.3%. Management attributed the increase to higher occupancy, commissions, credit card fees, spending at food and beverage outlets, and energy costs.
    • −The balance sheet carries $2.2 billion in debt against a stated market capitalization of $1.7 billion, and the company expects net interest expense of between $101 million and $103 million in FY2026. Despite having no maturities until 2029, 28% of the debt is not described as fixed or hedged, leaving part of the financial structure exposed to financing conditions.
    • −The Boston and Key West conversions involve operational disruption during execution; management explained that balancing this disruption is one reason for maintaining a pace of between 2 and 3 projects annually. Conversion work on both assets begins during the second half of FY2026, so the impact of the disruption may precede the realization of the targeted repositioning returns.
    • −Analyst consensus reflects a Neutral rating, with a relatively narrow target range of between $11 and $13 and an average of $11.5. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $12.89, indicating that analysts do not assume a full return to the annual high in their base estimates.

    Valuation

    Analyst consensus on RLJ is Neutral, with an average price target of $11.5 within a range of $11 to $13. The average is below the 52-week range high of $12.89, while clearly exceeding the range low of $6.54; this distance reflects a combination of operating improvement and raised FY2026 guidance on one hand, and limited visibility, expense pressure, and leverage on the other.

    HoldAnalyst target: $11.5(+5.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What were RLJ's key results in Q2 FY2026?

    Revenue reached $383.0 million, net income was $31.0 million, and earnings per share were $0.16. RevPAR increased 6.8% to $167, with average daily rate growing 4.9% to $217 and occupancy rising 130 basis points to 77%. Hotel EBITDA also grew 7.1% to $119.5 million, and its margin reached 31.3%.

    What supports RLJ's growth during FY2026?

    Business travel revenue increased 10% and room nights in this segment rose 6% in Q2 FY2026, with the increase driven by national accounts, the GDS channel, and sectors including technology, finance, and defense. Leisure revenue increased 7% and group revenue 6%, while Q3 group pace reached 110% of the comparable period. Based on the strength of the quarter, the company raised its FY2026 comparable RevPAR growth forecast to a range of 3.5%–4.5%.

    How do hotel conversions affect RLJ's earnings?

    Seven completed conversions generated revenue growth of 8% and Hotel EBITDA growth of 12% during Q2 FY2026. The company completed the conversion of the Pittsburgh hotel into The Arrott under Autograph Collection and estimates the asset's earnings growth potential at approximately 35%. Management also estimates earnings growth potential of approximately 40% for the Boston asset and approximately 50% for the Key West asset after its conversion into Compass by Margaritaville and relaunch in 2027.

    What is RLJ's updated guidance for FY2026?

    The company expects comparable RevPAR growth of between 3.5% and 4.5% and Hotel EBITDA of between $369 million and $389 million. Adjusted EBITDA guidance ranges from $336 million to $356 million, and Adjusted FFO per diluted share from $1.37 to $1.50. It also expects capital expenditures of between $80 million and $90 million and net interest expense of between $101 million and $103 million, with no assumption of additional acquisitions or dispositions.

    Can RLJ's balance sheet fund investments and distributions?

    Debt totaled $2.2 billion after repayment of the senior notes due on July 1, 2026, with no other maturities until 2029. The company has approximately $1 billion in liquidity, including $600 million of undrawn capacity under the credit facility, and 83 of its 91 hotels are unencumbered. The weighted average interest rate is 4.8%, while 72% of debt is fixed or hedged, and the company continues to pay distributions of $0.15 per share.

    What are the main risks to RLJ stock following Q2 FY2026 results?

    Management acknowledged that visibility is limited due to the short booking window and economic and geopolitical uncertainty, while Q4 FY2026 pace was below the comparable period due to Salesforce moving to September and the impact of the elections. Expenses per occupied room increased 4.9% and fixed costs rose 6.4%, while the improvement in Hotel EBITDA margin was limited to 10 basis points. Debt of $2.2 billion and expected interest expense of between $101 million and $103 million add a financial burden, while the Boston and Key West conversion work may cause temporary disruption before the targeted returns are realized.