| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 16 | — | 17.8x | Bottom tier | |
Growth | 93 | 52.5% | 7.1% | Top tier | |
Quality | 28 | -8.9% | 4.5% | Bottom tier | |
Safety | 56 | — | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 67 | — | 2.12% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 36 | 67.7% | 2.9% | Bottom tier | |
Sentiment | 67 | 10 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Rocket Lab USA, Inc. operates through an integrated ecosystem that includes launch services, satellite and satellite platform and component manufacturing, and orbital operations. Its launch business includes the Electron and HASTE rockets, while the company is targeting entry into the medium-lift launch market with Neutron; it also provides systems such as Flatellite and components including solar panels, reaction wheels, engines, and optical communications. In fiscal Q2 2026, the Space Systems segment generated $189.5 million, or approximately 81% of quarterly revenue, compared with $44.6 million for Launch Services, demonstrating that systems and component manufacturing has become the largest source of revenue alongside the launch business, which fluctuates quarterly.
Rocket Lab recorded record revenue of $234.1 million in fiscal Q2 2026, representing year-over-year growth of 62% and sequential growth of 16.8%, compared with revenue of $200.3 million in fiscal Q1 2026. Gross profit reached $84.6 million and GAAP gross margin was 36.1%, exceeding the previous guidance range of 33% to 35%, but net loss remained elevated at $49.3 million and earnings per share were negative $0.08. For the twelve months ended in 2026, revenue totaled $769.1 million and gross profit was $286.6 million, compared with a net loss of $165.5 million, after fiscal 2025 recorded revenue of $601.8 million and a net loss of $198.2 million.
The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $116.13 and a wide range between $83 and $135; the average is below the 52-week range high of $151 and well above its low of $37.57. No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available due to the losses, so the valuation rests on revenue growth of 62% in fiscal Q2 2026 and the $2.36 billion backlog, balanced against the risks of cash consumption, dilution, and Neutron delays.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Growth came primarily from Space Systems, which generated $189.5 million in fiscal Q2 2026 and increased 38.6% from the previous quarter due to satellite manufacturing and the initial contribution from Mynaric. Launch Services contributed $44.6 million, despite declining 30% sequentially because of the Electron and HASTE mix and the timing of revenue recognition. Total revenue reached $234.1 million, representing year-over-year growth of 62%, while contracts signed during the quarter and the period following its close exceeded $1 billion.
Neutron targets the medium-lift launch market with an average selling price of between $50 million and $55 million, and the company has booked government and commercial missions before the first flight, including the U.S. Space Force Flatellite mission and a dedicated launch for Kepler Communications. More than 400 hot-fire tests of the Archimedes engines had been completed by the August 10, 2026 call, and the company was targeting delivery of the vehicle to the pad in fiscal Q4 2026. However, management acknowledged that the launch window by the end of 2026 was narrowing and that full-stage testing remained among the highest-risk technical milestones.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The transaction is intended to add a global communications network comprising 66 satellites and more than 2.5 million subscribers, and Iridium had generated more than $870 million in annual revenue during the year preceding the August 10, 2026 call. Rocket Lab plans to combine satellite manufacturing and launch with communications applications, with identified opportunities in the Internet of Things, direct-to-device connectivity, positioning, navigation, and timing services, defense, and aviation and maritime safety. The transaction remains subject to approval by Iridium shareholders and regulatory reviews, and the company expects to complete it in mid-2027.
Rocket Lab did not generate a net profit; it recorded a loss of $49.3 million and earnings per share of negative $0.08 in fiscal Q2 2026. Conversely, gross profit reached $84.6 million and gross margin was 36.1%, while its adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization loss was $8.8 million compared with guidance for a loss of between $20 million and $26 million. Non-GAAP free cash flow was negative $110.1 million due to Neutron development, inventory build, and the retooling of Mynaric's supply chain.
Backlog reached $2.36 billion at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, with 60% for Space Systems and 40% for launch, and 45.5% expected to convert into revenue during the twelve months following that quarter. Defense contracts include a $397 million contract to build, launch, and operate Flatellite satellites and a $266 million contract for up to 18 HASTE missile defense missions. The company also added two contracts with a combined value exceeding $160 million to build three geostationary satellites, and its launch manifest increased to more than 90 missions after adding 26 missions.
