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Home
Stocks
Rithm Capital Corp.
RITM

RITM Rithm Capital Corp.

Rithm Capital Corp. · NYSE
Market Closed
9.74
▲ ⁦+0.78%⁩ (+0.07)
Market Cap$5.4B
Beta1.11
52w Low52w High
8.4312.74
Last Week
⁦-1.52%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.01%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+4.51%⁩
Last Year
⁦-21.13%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall32
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 2/8DistressBetter than 32% of Market stocks, per EL7's modelUnsustainable dividend (payout > 100%)
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
62
11.7x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
61
7.7%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
41
3.0%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
26
20.0x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
50
10.27%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
29
-18.9%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
45
6▲3Around median
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$9.74
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$13
⁦+31%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$13–$14⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$13.00
⁦+33.5%⁩
Current Price $9.74·Median $12.75
Low
$12.50
High
$14.00
Current price
$9.74
Average target
$13.00
Street summary

Rithm Capital (RITM) Price Target Revision Analysis

Bullish tilt

The consensus price target for RITM stock has seen a slight decline of 3.7% over the past thirty days, falling from 13.5 to 13, with this valuation stabilizing over the last week. Despite this downward adjustment in the target, the current price (10.08) is still trading below the lowest price target set by analysts (12.5), indicating a positive valuation gap in favor of the upside, with low dispersion in analyst estimates (between 12.5 and 14).

As of 2026-08-28
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-1.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.36
Buy
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
100%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
15%
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
4
7
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.40 → 4.36
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-21
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-06-16
    BTIG
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-05-20
    Citigroup
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.68x
    5.03x40.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    4.23x
    5.89x47.13x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    24.42x
    3.68x29.40x
    Expensive
  • FCF Yield
    -22.1%
    -23.1%16.7%
    Weak
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.7%
    -14.0%37.7%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -54.2%
    -121.8%181.8%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    74.9%
    -5.0%81.8%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    3.0%
    -4.2%9.5%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    19.99x
    1.55x12.39x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    10.3%
    0.6%15.6%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    119.6%
    31.2%370.0%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.30
    -0.883.10
    Below average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Rithm Capital Corp. is a diversified financial and investment platform that combines asset management, mortgage origination and servicing, real estate lending, and investment in office properties. The company manages more than $100 billion in investable assets, including approximately $61 billion in third-party assets through Rithm, Sculptor, and Crestline, with more than 200 clients and limited partners. Its sources of income include asset management and performance fees, profits from loan origination and servicing, returns from its mortgage servicing rights MSR portfolio, income from Genesis construction, bridge, and renovation loans, as well as rental income and real estate asset gains at Elecor.

In fiscal Q2 2026, EDGAR data showed revenue of $1.3 billion, net income of $56.3 million, and earnings per share of $0.04, equivalent to a calculated net income margin of approximately 4.3%. For the trailing twelve months ended in 2026, revenue totaled $5.1 billion, net income was $465.5 million, and earnings per share were approximately $0.82. By comparison, fiscal 2025 recorded revenue of $4.6 billion, net income of $697.1 million, and earnings per share of $1.04, showing higher revenue alongside lower profitability based on the periods presented.

The business mix reflects contributions from different platforms with distinct earnings drivers: Newrez generated pre-tax income, excluding mark-to-market adjustments, of $308 million and a return on equity of 22% in fiscal Q2 2026, while Genesis generated approximately $42 million in pre-tax income and an annualized operating return on equity of 17%. In asset management, the Sculptor multi-strategy fund delivered a net return of approximately 8% during the first half of 2026, while Elecor comprises ten core office assets totaling 9.9 million square feet with an overall leased rate of 86.5%.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Distributable earnings in fiscal Q2 2026 totaled approximately $338.9 million, or $0.60 per diluted share, and exceeded analyst estimates according to an August 10, 2026 news report; management also indicated a core run rate of approximately $0.50 after excluding incentive fees and certain hedging gains.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Third-party assets under management increased from approximately zero when the business began being built to approximately $61 billion, with 71% of assets under management being long-dated, and fundraising efforts focused on asset-backed finance ABF, direct lending, capital solutions, credit, and real estate.
  • Newrez funded $15.9 billion in loans in fiscal Q2 2026, added eight loan-servicing clients and $27 billion in new loans to its platform, while co-issue mortgage servicing rights purchases increased 45% quarter over quarter to $5 billion.
  • ReziAI technologies and integration with Valon and Home Vision are intended to reduce Newrez's cost per loan; the company expects the cost to decline to $93, a direct decrease of 21%, and annual savings to exceed $65 million following the planned migration to the Valon system in early 2027.
  • Genesis originated $1.9 billion in loans during fiscal Q2 2026, compared with annual production of approximately $1.7 billion when it was acquired in 2022, and its pre-tax income increased 26% quarter over quarter. Management expects production of between $6.5 billion and $7 billion in 2026, driven by demand from insurance companies and funds for high-yield short-term loans.
  • Elecor executed and placed under contract leases covering more than 681 thousand square feet during the first half of 2026 at an average starting rent of approximately $100 per square foot, an increase of 21.4% over 2025 transactions. In San Francisco alone, the leased rate increased by approximately six percentage points quarter over quarter to 64.9%, and executed or pending leases reached approximately 425 thousand square feet.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The platform's diversification across asset management, Newrez, Genesis, and Elecor provides multiple sources of earnings, and all units delivered positive results in fiscal Q2 2026 despite market volatility, according to management.
    • +The cash dividend was $0.25 per share in fiscal Q2 2026, with a stated dividend yield of between 10% and 10.6%, while distributable earnings were $0.60 per share; this provides strong operating coverage for the dividend in the period presented, although its sustainability depends on future earnings.
    • +Rithm has a broad mortgage base; Newrez services more than four million homeowners and targets approximately $65 billion in loan originations in 2026, while the platform is associated with an owned and third-party mortgage servicing rights portfolio of approximately $865 billion.
    • +Operational improvement at Elecor supports the potential for higher real estate income, as the leased rate of the core New York portfolio reached 91.6%, starting rents on executed or pending leases in 2026 were 32% higher than 2025 transactions, and the company identified approximately $44 million in operating savings since the acquisition.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Net income for the trailing twelve months ended in 2026 declined to $465.5 million and earnings per share to approximately $0.82, compared with net income of $697.1 million and earnings per share of $1.04 in fiscal 2025, despite revenue increasing from $4.6 billion to $5.1 billion; this indicates meaningful pressure on converting revenue into profit.
    • −Newrez's daily mortgage origination pace declined from approximately $350–400 million to $200–250 million according to the July 28, 2026 call, as high interest rates pressured refinancing. The company also acknowledged that competition is pressuring gain-on-sale margins and that assets tied to mortgage servicing rights have become highly sensitive to interest-rate movements, with less margin for error.
    • −Elecor carries clear occupancy and execution risks, particularly in San Francisco, where the core portfolio's leased rate was only 64.9% at the end of fiscal Q2 2026 despite its quarterly improvement. Repositioning four major assets and amenity investments in New York and San Francisco also require capital expenditure before the targeted increases in rents and occupancy are realized.
    • −The Genesis portfolio includes credit exposure to construction, bridge, and renovation loans, representing approximately 50%, 34%, and 12%, respectively, with a loan-to-value ratio of approximately 68%. Management also cited headline- and policy-related pressures in the single-family rental SFR market, which could limit growth or increase risk in this segment.
    • −Approximately 70% of Sculptor's incentive fees are typically recognized in the fourth quarter, and fiscal Q2 2026 fees resulted from an off-cycle realization; therefore, asset management earnings may fluctuate between quarters, and the full contribution from those fees should not be viewed as a recurring earnings run rate.
    • −Insiders recorded net sales of 147,741 shares during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 20, 2026, with one sale and no purchases. This remains a weak standalone signal because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data states otherwise.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $13, within a range of $12.50 to $14, with a “Buy” consensus; the average is slightly above the 52-week range high of $12.74, while the highest target exceeds that high by approximately 9.9%. Conversely, an August 10, 2026 news report indicated a 17% discount to book value, but the decline in trailing twelve-month net income to $465.5 million from $697.1 million in fiscal 2025, incentive-fee volatility, and mortgage origination pressures help explain the continued discount despite the positive analyst target.

    BuyAnalyst target: $13(+33.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does Rithm Capital generate revenue and profits?

    Rithm combines asset management, mortgages, real estate lending, and ownership of office properties. Rithm, Sculptor, and Crestline manage approximately $61 billion in third-party assets, generating management and performance fees. Newrez generates income from loan origination, servicing, and mortgage servicing rights, while Genesis originates construction, bridge, and renovation loans. Elecor also earns income from ten core office assets totaling 9.9 million square feet.

    What were RITM's key results in fiscal Q2 2026?

    EDGAR data showed revenue of $1.3 billion, net income of $56.3 million, and earnings per share of $0.04 in fiscal Q2 2026. The company reported distributable earnings of $338.9 million, or $0.60 per diluted share. Liquidity and cash totaled $2.1 billion at the end of the period, while reported book value was $12.33 per share. Rithm paid a cash dividend of $0.25 per share for the quarter.

    How important is Newrez to Rithm Capital's performance?

    Newrez is one of the largest mortgage origination and servicing platforms in the United States and serves more than four million homeowners. The unit generated pre-tax income, excluding mark-to-market adjustments, of $308 million and a return on equity of 22% in fiscal Q2 2026. Funded loan volume totaled $15.9 billion, and the platform added eight clients and $27 billion in new loans to its servicing business. The company targets annual savings exceeding $65 million following the planned migration to the Valon system in early 2027.

    Is RITM's asset management business growing?

    Third-party assets under management totaled approximately $61 billion in fiscal Q2 2026, compared with approximately zero when the company began building this business in 2023. Long-dated assets represent 71% of total assets under management, and the platform serves more than 200 clients and limited partners. The Sculptor multi-strategy fund delivered a net return of approximately 8% during the first half of 2026 and 12.3% over three years. However, approximately 70% of Sculptor's incentive fees are typically recognized in the fourth quarter, making their quarterly contribution volatile.

    What is the status of Elecor's real estate portfolio?

    Elecor comprises ten core office assets totaling 9.9 million square feet, including approximately seven million square feet in New York and the remainder in San Francisco. The overall leased rate was 86.5% at the end of fiscal Q2 2026, with an average in-place rent of $90 per square foot and a weighted average lease term of 8.3 years. New York's leased rate reached 91.6%, while San Francisco's was approximately 64.9% after increasing by approximately six percentage points quarter over quarter. The company is implementing capital improvements at 1633 Broadway, 712 Fifth Avenue, One Market Plaza, and One Front Street to support rents and occupancy in 2026 and beyond.

    What are the main risks to monitor for RITM stock?

    Newrez's daily mortgage origination pace declined from $350–400 million to $200–250 million according to the July 28, 2026 call, while competition is also pressuring gain-on-sale margins. Elecor's San Francisco portfolio leased rate remains relatively low at 64.9%, with the assets requiring additional capital investment. Trailing twelve-month net income ended in 2026 declined to $465.5 million, compared with $697.1 million in fiscal 2025, despite revenue growth. Some asset management earnings also depend on volatile incentive fees, and approximately 70% of Sculptor's fees are typically concentrated in the fourth quarter.