| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 68 | 16.4x | 17.8x | Top tier | |
Growth | 29 | 7.4% | 7.1% | Bottom tier | |
Quality | 58 | — | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 78 | 0.7x | 2.6x | Top tier | |
Capital Return | 32 | 5.11% | 2.12% | Bottom tier | |
Momentum | 79 | 59.9% | 2.9% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 76 | 8 | 3 | Top tier |
Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Rio Tinto Group produces and markets iron ore, copper, aluminum, and lithium, deriving its revenue and cash flows from production volumes and the prices of these commodities. Its portfolio includes the Pilbara iron ore operations and the Simandou project, copper assets such as Oyu Tolgoi and Kennecott, an integrated aluminum value chain extending from bauxite and alumina to smelters, as well as lithium projects in Argentina. In the first half reported within the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, copper, aluminum, and lithium generated nearly 60% of earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, illustrating that the earnings mix is less dependent on iron ore than a less diversified portfolio.
In fiscal year 2025, revenue increased to $57.6 billion from $53.7 billion in fiscal year 2024, or by approximately 7.3%, but net income declined to $10.2 billion from $11.6 billion, and earnings per share fell to 6.084 from 7.072. Based on these figures, the calculated net income margin declined to approximately 17.7% from approximately 21.6%, meaning that annual sales growth did not translate into comparable profitability growth.
The first-half results announced with the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 showed strong improvement: net profit rose 47%, underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 28% to $14.8 billion, and free cash flow rose 75% to $3.8 billion. Production grew 3% on a copper-equivalent basis, copper segment earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 84%, compared with a 31% increase in aluminum, while the company raised interim dividends 43% to $3.4 billion. The improvement came from $3.6 billion in higher commodity prices and $1.2 billion from factors under management's control, offset by $1.5 billion in external headwinds.
Analyst consensus on RIO is Neutral, with an average price target of $101.63 and a wide range between $83.5 and $120, reflecting meaningful disagreement over the impact of commodity prices and operational execution. The average target is approximately 9.7% below the 52-week range high of $112.58, while the high target exceeds that high by approximately 6.6%, and the available data do not provide a valid price-to-earnings multiple for comparison. This valuation balances improved cash flow and productivity on one hand against the decline in fiscal year 2025 net income, operational and legal risks, and high capital expenditure on the other.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization rose 28% to $14.8 billion in the first half announced with the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Commodity prices added $3.6 billion, including $2 billion from copper and $1.3 billion from aluminum, while factors under management's control added $1.2 billion. Free cash flow rose 75% to $3.8 billion, while net profit grew 47% and production increased 3% on a copper-equivalent basis.
Copper was the strongest segment in the first half within the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increasing 84% and its free cash flow more than tripling. The company is targeting copper production of one million tonnes by 2030, driven by the ramp-up of Oyu Tolgoi toward 500 thousand tonnes annually and targeted growth at Kennecott of between 40% and 50%. Studies at Resolution, La Granja, and Winu are also progressing to develop a subsequent wave of production options.
The company reduced net debt during the first half within the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 despite funding capital expenditure of $5 billion and paying final dividends for fiscal year 2025 worth $4.2 billion. It approved interim dividends worth $3.4 billion, an increase of 43%, after free cash flow rose to $3.8 billion. However, capital expenditure guidance reaches $11 billion in each of 2026 and 2027, making sustained cash generation and capital discipline critical factors.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
Construction of the Simandou mine and port was more than three-quarters complete in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, with inventory being built across the system during the ramp-up, and the company plans to complete related spending by the end of 2027. In lithium, the Fenix 1B and Sal de Vida projects were completed ahead of schedule, while Rincon remained on its announced schedule. Rio Tinto is targeting lithium capacity of 200 thousand tonnes by 2028, benefiting from demand related to battery energy storage.
Volatility in copper, aluminum, and iron ore prices plays a direct role in results, as illustrated by the positive price contribution of $3.6 billion to first-half earnings within the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. Operational risks include the deferral of some Kennecott sales and cash flows to 2027 following the furnace breach in June 2026, alongside production challenges at IOC. Additional risks include a tax dispute in Mongolia of approximately $900 million, capital expenditure of up to $11 billion in 2026 and 2027, and a Neutral analyst consensus.
