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Stocks
Transocean Ltd.
RIG

RIG Transocean Ltd.

Transocean Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
5.67
▼ ⁦-1.73%⁩ (-0.10)
Market Cap$5.9B
Beta1.33
52w Low52w High
2.937.66
Last Week
⁦-5.81%⁩
Last Month
⁦-0.87%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.28%⁩
Last Year
⁦+87.13%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall30
Weak — below market medianTurnaroundF 5/9DistressBetter than 30% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
68
—17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
47
8.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
29
-7.0%▼4.5%Bottom tier
▸
Safety
48
—2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
93
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
60
69.7%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
91
6▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Current price$5.67
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$7.00
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$7.00–$7.00⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$5.55
⁦-2%⁩
Sees it fairly priced
⁦10.3⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$5.55–$7.00⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$7.00
⁦+23.5%⁩
Current Price $5.67·Median $7.00
Low
$7.00
High
$7.00
Street summary

Transocean (RIG) Price Target Analysis

Bullish tilt

Transocean's price targets have seen a notable improvement over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising from $6.5 to $7, an increase of 7.69%. This change reflects growing optimism among analysts, especially with the lack of Analyst Dispersion, as the two analysts covering the price target agreed on a value of $7, indicating unified confidence in the stock's fair value compared to its current price of $5.84.

As of 2026-08-19
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.23
Hold
Analyst coverage
13
Buy conviction
46%
Mixed
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
1
5
5
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.75 → 3.23
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-05-06
    TD Cowen
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-04-15
    Morgan Stanley
    —· $7.00
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Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    26.48x
    3.36x26.89x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    14.3%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.5%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    6.3%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    41.6%
    7.8%72.1%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    -7.0%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Below average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.00
    -1.814.34
    Below average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-05 data

Company Overview

Transocean Ltd. specializes in offshore drilling services, focusing on operating deepwater drillships and harsh-environment semisubmersibles. It generates revenue from rig operating contracts for companies such as Petrobras, Vår Energi, and ONGC, and the economic return of each asset depends on utilization, revenue efficiency, dayrate, and contract duration. In Q1 of fiscal 2026, the average daily revenue was $476 thousand, the highest in more than a decade, while utilization reached 98% and revenue efficiency exceeded 97%.

In Q2 of fiscal 2026, Transocean reported revenue of $966 million, gross profit of $358 million, and net income of $170 million, with earnings per share of $0.04. This equates to a gross profit margin of approximately 37.1% and a net income margin of approximately 17.6%. Compared with Q1 of fiscal 2026, revenue declined by approximately 12.2% from $1.1 billion, and gross profit fell from $475 million, while net income increased from $71 million to $170 million.

The figures for the twelve months ended in fiscal 2026 present a more conservative picture than the latest quarterly result, with revenue of $4.1 billion and gross profit of $1.7 billion, but a net loss of $2.8 billion and earnings per share of approximately negative $2.46. The company also ended Q1 of fiscal 2026 with backlog exceeding $7 billion and firm contract coverage of 86% for fiscal 2026 and 73% for fiscal 2027, providing revenue visibility despite the continued loss on a twelve-month basis.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Since the February 2026 call, Transocean has added approximately $1.6 billion to backlog through contracts and extensions for five rigs, raising backlog to more than $7 billion; the additions include approximately $845 million for Deepwater Orion and Deepwater Corcovado, approximately $160 million for Deepwater Aquila, and approximately $158 million for Deepwater Asgard.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

On August 20, 2026, Dhirubhai Deepwater KG2 received a binding two-year letter of award to work for ONGC in India, with a total value of approximately $300 million, strengthening contracted revenue and providing the asset with long-term work in a market where management expects activity to expand beginning in fiscal 2027.
  • Management expects deepwater rig utilization to approach 100% by fiscal 2027, after the market added 80 rig-years through 61 new contracts since the beginning of fiscal 2026. The average duration of awarded contracts also reached 480 days, twice the fiscal 2025 average, supporting contract duration and pricing power if the expected supply-demand balance materializes.
  • The company is targeting cumulative savings of $250 million through fiscal 2026 compared with the fiscal 2024 baseline by improving rig operations, removing idle and stacked assets, and reducing maintenance and onshore support infrastructure spending. In Q1 of fiscal 2026, it generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $440 million at a margin exceeding 40%, in addition to free cash flow of $136 million.
  • On August 25, 2026, Transocean confirmed compliance with the second request for information issued by the U.S. Department of Justice regarding the Valaris transaction. The company expects the combined entity to increase pro forma backlog to approximately $12 billion, with cost savings exceeding $200 million on top of the standalone $250 million cost-reduction program, but realizing these benefits remains dependent on obtaining approvals and closing the transaction during fiscal 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Backlog exceeding $7 billion and firm coverage of 86% for fiscal 2026 and 73% for fiscal 2027 provide a clear foundation for revenue and cash flows and reduce complete reliance on securing spot contracts in a volatile market.
    • +The quality of operational execution supports the improvement thesis, as the company recorded 98% utilization, revenue efficiency exceeding 97%, and average daily revenue of $476 thousand in Q1 of fiscal 2026, with an adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin exceeding 40%.
    • +The company has made tangible progress in reducing debt; it repaid the $358 million Deepwater Titan bonds, saving approximately $40 million in interest expense, and is more than $900 million ahead of the trajectory it projected at the end of fiscal 2024. It is also targeting repayment of at least $750 million of total debt during fiscal 2026.
    • +Net insider purchases during the three months ended July 2, 2026 totaled 173,250 shares, with one purchase and no sales recorded. This represents a positive alignment signal, although it is not sufficient on its own to assess value or future performance.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Annual profitability remains weak despite improvement in the latest quarter; the company reported a net loss of $2.9 billion in fiscal 2025 and a net loss of $2.8 billion during the twelve months ended in fiscal 2026, so no positive price-to-earnings ratio is available for valuing the stock based on earnings.
    • −Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue declined to $966 million from $1.1 billion in Q1 of fiscal 2026, and gross profit fell to $358 million from $475 million. The calculated gross profit margin also contracted from approximately 43.2% to approximately 37.1%, indicating sequential deceleration and pressure on the mix or costs between the two quarters.
    • −Management lowered the upper end of its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance by $50 million to $3.9 billion due to the lower probability of filling certain gaps in the contract schedule within the required operational lead times. Cost projections also include downtime for some rigs whose contracts expire during fiscal 2026, including KG2, Deepwater Proteus, and Deepwater Skiros.
    • −Debt principal remained at approximately $5.1 billion on May 5, 2026, and the ratio of net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was approximately 3.1 times on a twelve-month basis. Even with the plan to reduce debt principal to approximately $4.9 billion by the end of fiscal 2026, the company expected the ratio to be approximately 3.3 times based on consensus earnings estimates, keeping leverage elevated.
    • −The Valaris transaction is subject to antitrust reviews and, as of August 25, 2026, these included a second request for information from the U.S. Department of Justice, while required approvals extended across seven countries. The parties' compliance with the request is an important step, but it does not constitute final approval, so the expected cost savings exceeding $200 million and pro forma backlog of $12 billion remain exposed to closing-timing risks and regulatory conditions.
    • −

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is Buy with an average price target of $7, with both the highest and lowest targets matching at $7, reflecting no apparent dispersion in the available targets but offering no broad range for differing scenarios. The consensus target is approximately 8.6% below the 52-week range high of $7.66 and approximately 139% above the range low of $2.93. No positive price-to-earnings ratio is available because of the twelve-month loss of $2.8 billion, so valuation depends heavily on converting backlog into cash flow, reducing debt, and completing the Valaris transaction rather than relying on stable positive annual earnings.

    BuyAnalyst target: $7(+23.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What supports Transocean's revenue during fiscal 2026 and 2027?

    Backlog exceeded $7 billion on May 5, 2026, after the addition of approximately $1.6 billion from contracts and extensions for five rigs. Firm contract coverage reached 86% for fiscal 2026 and 73% for fiscal 2027. Key additions included extensions for Deepwater Orion and Deepwater Corcovado with a combined value of approximately $845 million and a Deepwater Asgard contract worth approximately $158 million.

    Did RIG's results improve in Q2 of fiscal 2026?

    In Q2 of fiscal 2026, the company reported revenue of $966 million, net income of $170 million, and earnings per share of $0.04. Net income increased from $71 million in Q1 of fiscal 2026, but revenue declined from $1.1 billion. Gross profit also fell from $475 million to $358 million, and the calculated gross margin declined from approximately 43.2% to approximately 37.1%.

    What is the significance of the Dhirubhai Deepwater KG2 contract with ONGC?

    On August 20, 2026, Transocean announced a binding two-year letter of award for the Dhirubhai Deepwater KG2 drillship. The estimated total contract value is approximately $300 million, and the work will be performed for ONGC in India. The contract adds operating duration and contracted revenue in a region where management expected up to four drillships and two semisubmersibles to be added during fiscal 2027.

    What is the status of the merger transaction between Transocean and Valaris?

    Management stated on May 5, 2026 that the transaction required antitrust approvals in seven countries and that it had obtained approvals from Saudi Arabia and Trinidad and Tobago at that time. On August 25, 2026, Transocean confirmed compliance with the second request for information from the U.S. Department of Justice, while the final decision remained unannounced in the available information. Management expects to close the transaction during fiscal 2026 and estimates the combined entity's backlog at approximately $12 billion and additional cost savings at more than $200 million.

    Is Transocean's debt declining quickly enough?

    In March 2026, the company repaid the $358 million Deepwater Titan bonds, saving approximately $40 million in interest expense. Remaining debt principal was approximately $5.1 billion on May 5, 2026, and management targeted repayment of at least $750 million during fiscal 2026 and ending it with debt principal of approximately $4.9 billion. However, the ratio of net debt to adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization was approximately 3.1 times, making leverage reduction a central element of the investment thesis.

    What are the key indicators of demand for Transocean's rigs?

    Management reported that the market added 80 rig-years through 61 new contracts since the beginning of fiscal 2026 and that the average contract duration increased to 480 days, twice the fiscal 2025 average. The company expects deepwater rig utilization to approach 100% by fiscal 2027, while utilization of harsh-environment units in Norway remains close to 100% in subsequent years. It also expects the number of active rigs in Africa to increase from approximately 15 to at least 20 within one to two years from the date of the May 5, 2026 call.

    The company raised its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure forecast by $20 million due to unexpected customer requirements, while ocean and air freight costs increased by as much as 30% and 50%, respectively. Logistics represents only 2% to 3% of annual operating and maintenance expenses, and mechanisms exist to recover some costs, but persistent inflation may later flow through to the prices of goods and services purchased by the company.