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REX American Resources Corporation
REX

REX REX American Resources Corporation

REX American Resources Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
41.62
▼ ⁦-1.21%⁩ (-0.51)
Market Cap$1.4B
Beta0.64
52w Low52w High
30.0253.36
Last Week
⁦-2.76%⁩
Last Month
⁦-3.99%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-5.04%⁩
Last Year
⁦+36.41%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall84
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 5/9SafeBetter than 84% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
78
11.4x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
66
1.3%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
57
15.7%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
95
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
37
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
71
39.6%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
19
1▼3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$42
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$60
⁦+44%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$60–$60⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$66
⁦+58%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦11⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$60–$66⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$60.00
⁦+44.2%⁩
Current Price $41.62·Median $60.00
Low
$60.00
High
$60.00
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
1
Buy conviction
100%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time1 analysts rating
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.50 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2024-08-26
    Truist Securities
    —· $60.00
  • = Reiterate2024-06-17
    Truist Securities
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2024-05-30
    Truist Securities
    —· $65.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    11.40x
    4.94x39.51x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.29x
    2.62x20.92x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    5.0%
    -21.3%8.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    1.3%
    -21.2%90.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    329.4%
    -249.5%198.4%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    22.4%
    7.6%58.9%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    15.7%
    -52.6%20.2%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    12.56
    -11.4212.56
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-09-02 data

Company Overview

REX American Resources Corporation operates in the renewable energy sector through consolidated and unconsolidated interests in six ethanol production facilities, including One Earth Energy and NuGen Energy. Its financial performance primarily depends on ethanol production volumes and prices and crush margins, along with its share of earnings from unconsolidated facilities and incentives related to reducing carbon intensity, particularly the 45Z production tax credit. The company is also expanding One Earth and developing a carbon capture and storage project aimed at increasing production capacity and improving the value of tax credits obtainable per unit of production.

In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue increased to $168.5 million from $158.6 million in the corresponding period, driven by improved pricing across the product mix. Gross profit jumped to $53.3 million from $14.3 million, representing a gross margin of approximately 31.6% versus about 9.0%, and included $18.4 million of 45Z credit income; even excluding this credit, management said gross profit grew by approximately 144% year over year. Net income attributable to REX shareholders was approximately $34.9 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, compared with $7.1 million and $0.22 per share in the second quarter of fiscal 2025.

The earnings mix reflects significant dependence on ethanol economics, with a growing contribution from tax incentives and unconsolidated facilities; the company’s share of income from unconsolidated affiliates reached $7.2 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up from $0.9 million. REX ended the quarter with $379.5 million in cash and short-term investments and no bank debt, after cumulative investment of $191.2 million in the ethanol production expansion and carbon capture project through the end of the quarter.

What's Driving the Stock

  • REX recorded the highest second-quarter earnings per share in its history at $1.06 in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, compared with $0.22 in the second quarter of fiscal 2025, and achieved its twenty-fourth consecutive profitable quarter.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The 45Z credit contributed $18.4 million directly to gross profit during the second quarter of fiscal 2026, bringing its total contribution since the beginning of the fiscal year to approximately $26 million; the company also aims to improve carbon intensity and increase the value of this credit through the capture and storage project.
  • The One Earth Energy expansion remained on the announced timeline, with a plan to increase production from approximately 150 million gallons to 175 million gallons by the end of 2026, followed by pursuing the approvals required to reach nearly 200 million gallons during the first half of 2027.
  • On August 17, 2026, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued draft permits for three Class VI injection wells for the One Earth project, an important regulatory step, but the project’s launch still requires final approvals, Illinois permits, and the approximately five-mile connecting pipeline.
  • Strong crush margins and improved product-mix pricing supported the results, while management indicated on September 2, 2026 that ethanol exports grew by approximately 13% during the first six months of 2026 and that it expected strong export demand to continue.
  • On the September 2, 2026 call, management expected profitability to continue in the third quarter of fiscal 2026 and its results to be better than the corresponding period of fiscal 2025, without providing a numerical revenue or earnings range.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case5 pts

    • +REX combines improvement in the core business with tax support; gross profit grew by approximately 144% year over year even when excluding the 45Z credit, indicating that the quarterly surge did not depend entirely on the tax incentive.
    • +The $379.5 million balance of cash and short-term investments and the absence of bank debt provide the capacity to internally fund the One Earth expansion and the carbon capture project, following cumulative investments of $191.2 million through the end of the second quarter of fiscal 2026.
    • +Increasing One Earth’s capacity from approximately 150 million gallons to 175 million gallons by the end of 2026 could expand the production base benefiting from 45Z, while subsequently reaching nearly 200 million gallons could add further operating leverage after the required approvals are obtained.
    • +The draft permits for the three Class VI wells represent tangible progress for the carbon capture project; if the project receives all approvals and becomes operational, management expects it to reduce carbon intensity and increase the value realized from the 45Z program.
    • +The company recorded 24 consecutive profitable quarters, and net income attributable to shareholders reached $34.9 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 versus $7.1 million in the corresponding period, reflecting strong benefits from industry conditions and margin management.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The business is concentrated in ethanol and its derivatives across six facilities, so revenue and earnings remain sensitive to ethanol and corn prices, crush margins, and export demand; management attributed an important portion of the improvement in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 to strong crush margins and improved pricing.
    • −The 45Z credit added approximately $18.4 million to gross profit in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 and approximately $26 million since the beginning of the fiscal year, making a meaningful portion of earnings dependent on the continuation of the program’s rules and the facilities’ ability to satisfy them.
    • −The carbon capture project remains exposed to timeline and regulatory approval risks; the three federal permits issued on August 17, 2026 were drafts, and management explicitly said it had limited visibility into the timing of Illinois approval for the approximately five-mile connecting pipeline, which may be the project element with the longest wait.
    • −Changes related to RIN waivers and credits could affect industry economics, and management acknowledged on the September 2, 2026 call that an impact was possible, although it did not expect the impact on ethanol sales to be significant.
    • −Selling, general, and administrative expenses increased to $15.6 million in the second quarter of fiscal 2026 from $6.2 million in the corresponding period due to higher incentive compensation associated with strong results and restricted stock grants; continuation at this level could limit the conversion of gross profit growth into net income.
    • −

    Valuation

    The average analyst target is $60, with both the high and low targets at $60 and a “Buy” consensus, indicating no visible dispersion among the available targets but potentially also reflecting a narrow coverage sample. This target is approximately 12.4% above the 52-week range high of $53.36, while the range extends to a low of $30.02, a breadth consistent with REX’s valuation sensitivity to ethanol margins, the 45Z credit, and the timing of approvals for the carbon capture project.

    BuyAnalyst target: $60(+44.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-04; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove REX’s record earnings in the second quarter of fiscal 2026?

    Revenue increased to $168.5 million from $158.6 million, while gross profit jumped to $53.3 million from $14.3 million. The improvement came from higher pricing across the product mix and strong crush margins, in addition to $18.4 million of 45Z credit income. Net income attributable to REX shareholders was approximately $34.9 million, or $1.06 per diluted share, compared with $7.1 million and $0.22 per share in the second quarter of fiscal 2025. Management said gross profit grew by approximately 144% even excluding the impact of 45Z.

    How large is the One Earth Energy expansion, and when will the new capacity come online?

    One Earth was producing approximately 150 million gallons at the time of the September 2, 2026 call, and REX aims to increase capacity to 175 million gallons by the end of 2026. After reaching that level, the company needs to submit additional applications and obtain further regulatory approvals to reach 200 million gallons. Management indicated that it could approach the 200 million-gallon level during the first half of 2027. The company believes the additional production could increase the value derived from the 45Z credit.

    How far has REX’s carbon capture and storage project progressed?

    On August 17, 2026, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency issued draft permits for three Class VI injection wells associated with the One Earth project. Illinois’s moratorium on carbon sequestration operations ended on July 1, 2026, and state regulators began rulemaking and accepting permit applications. REX plans to submit an application for an approximately five-mile connecting pipeline and a separate application to the Illinois Environmental Protection Agency. Management does not have a clear timeline for approval of the connecting pipeline and described it as the element likely to take the longest.

    How important is the 45Z credit to REX’s results?

    REX recorded $18.4 million of income from the 45Z credit in the second quarter of fiscal 2026, bringing the total since the beginning of the fiscal year to approximately $26 million. This contribution flowed directly into gross profit, which reached $53.3 million in the quarter. However, management reported that gross profit would have grown by approximately 144% year over year even without the credit. The carbon capture project could increase the value of 45Z if it reduces carbon intensity, receives all approvals, and becomes operational.

    Can REX fund its projects without bank borrowing?

    REX ended the second quarter of fiscal 2026 with $379.5 million in cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments, with no bank debt. Combined investment in the ethanol expansion and carbon capture project reached approximately $191.2 million through the end of the quarter. Management said it is funding its growth projects entirely from its balance sheet. It also stated that it is evaluating share repurchases and the acquisition of other ethanol plants or assets in related industries, but it did not announce an imminent transaction.

    What are the main risks to monitor in REX stock?

    Results depend heavily on ethanol margins and prices and export demand, with a $18.4 million contribution from 45Z to second-quarter fiscal 2026 profit. The carbon capture project faces permit-delay risks, particularly the required Illinois approval for the approximately five-mile connecting pipeline. Selling, general, and administrative expenses also increased to $15.6 million from $6.2 million year over year. In addition, net insider sales totaled $4.6 million across seven sales over the three months through June 18, 2026, though they should be treated cautiously because these sales may have been prearranged.

    The insider signal carries a Strong Sell rating, with net sales of $4.6 million over three months and seven sales versus no purchases through the latest transaction on June 18, 2026; however, it is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the data do not include anything proving otherwise.