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Stocks
The RealReal, Inc.
REAL

REAL The RealReal, Inc.

The RealReal, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
9.83
▲ ⁦+2.93%⁩ (+0.28)
Market Cap$1.2B
Beta2.74
52w Low52w High
7.3017.39
Last Week
⁦-2.67%⁩
Last Month
⁦-16.69%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+1.34%⁩
Last Year
⁦+26.03%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall15
Poor — bottom quartile of the marketFalling StarF 6/9DistressBetter than 15% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
28
—17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
72
17.7%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
63
-5.6%▼4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
24
13.0x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
77
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
36
56.1%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
36
5▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$9.83
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$16
⁦+58%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$13–$19⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$0.02
⁦-100%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦13.3⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$0.02–$16⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$15.75
⁦+60.2%⁩
Current Price $9.83·Median $15.50
Low
$13.00
High
$19.00
Current price
$9.83
Average target
$15.75
Street summary

Stable Targets Despite Fewer Analysts

Price targets remained unchanged over the last 30 days; consensus stayed at 15.75, while current targets ranged from 13 to 19, with a median average of 15.5. However, the number of analysts fell from 4 to 2 across all time comparisons, narrowing the coverage base and making the consensus reading less stable, despite the remaining targets pointing to levels above the current price of 9.78.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.78
Buy
Analyst coverage
9
Buy conviction
78%
High
Target dispersion
61%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time9 analysts rating
7
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.78 → 3.78
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    Roth MKM
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-07
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-06-03
    UBS
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    —
    —
  • Forward P/E
    99.09x
    3.79x30.29x
    Very expensive
  • EV / EBITDA
    58.20x
    2.75x22.03x
    Very expensive
  • FCF Yield
    3.0%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    17.7%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    27.7%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    74.5%
    12.0%66.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    -5.6%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Near median
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    13.00x
    0.65x5.48x
    Financial risk
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    -2.00
    -2.656.14
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-06 data

Company Overview

The RealReal operates a marketplace for authenticated luxury resale goods, with an assortment spanning fine jewelry, watches, handbags, and ready-to-wear across more than one million unique items listed and more than 40 million members. The company takes possession of each item and handles authentication, pricing, and marketing, providing sellers with an end-to-end consignment experience and buyers with assurance that many marketplaces that do not hold inventory cannot offer. It generates revenue primarily from consignment commissions, alongside direct revenue, and its take rate was 35.9% in Q2 FY2026.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $192.6 million, up 17% year over year, while consignment revenue rose 15% and direct revenue increased 26%. Gross merchandise value reached a record $617 million, growing 22%, with orders up 8% and average order value rising 13% to $659. Gross profit was $143.2 million, with a gross margin of 74.4% compared with a year-over-year expansion of 10 basis points, but the net result under EDGAR remained a loss of $27.2 million and earnings per share were negative $0.23.

Adjusted operating profitability improved in Q2 FY2026, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $13.5 million, or 7% of revenue, and its margin expanding 290 basis points year over year. Automation and the Athena initiative helped reduce labor intensity, while operating expenses as a percentage of revenue improved by approximately 470 basis points. The company ended the period on June 30, 2026 with $134 million in cash and restricted cash and generated positive operating cash flow of $2 million, despite the continued net accounting loss.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Gross merchandise value in Q2 FY2026 reached a record $617 million and grew 22% year over year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter in which growth exceeded 20%, alongside 11% growth in trailing-twelve-month active buyers to more than 1.1 million buyers.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The internal supply-and-demand network strengthened; in Q2 FY2026, 44% of new consignors came from the active buyer base, compared with 40% two quarters earlier, while supply per sales representative increased 15% since the beginning of FY2026, and the value of consignments from sellers referred through Real Partners was four times the average for a new consignor.
  • Sales of items valued above $1,000 increased 36% in the first half of FY2026, with momentum spanning fine jewelry, watches, handbags, and ready-to-wear. This mix drove average order value growth to $659 and generated greater profit per transaction, despite lowering the relative take rate.
  • The company expanded its use of Athena from zero to processing approximately 35% of items by the end of FY2025 and is targeting a level approaching 50% by the end of FY2026. Management says the system reduces processing costs by several dollars per item, while the automated storage and retrieval system scheduled to become operational in Q4 FY2026 is expected to increase authentication capacity at the Perth Amboy facility by 35%.
  • Management raised its FY2026 outlook to gross merchandise value of between $2.535 billion and $2.565 billion, revenue of between $788 million and $797 million, and adjusted EBITDA of between $66 million and $69 million. The midpoint of the adjusted EBITDA range represents an 8.5% margin, approximately 240 basis points above FY2025.
  • The RealReal and Google are testing an AI-powered conversational agent for searching across more than one million unique listings, and the company expanded its pricing algorithm to use more than 100 data points in setting prices and discounts. The intended impact is to improve discovery and conversion, reduce discounts, and accelerate matching the right item with the right buyer.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Q2 FY2026 combines 22% gross merchandise value growth, 17% revenue growth, and a 290-basis-point expansion in adjusted EBITDA margin, providing quantitative evidence that growth and adjusted operating profitability are being achieved simultaneously.
    • +The conversion of buyers into consignors represents a self-reinforcing driver; active buyers' share of new consignors increased to 44% in Q2 FY2026, while new buyers spend more on their first purchase and the Gen Z and Millennials segments are growing the fastest, according to management.
    • +The company has 15 years of proprietary data covering more than 50 million items, which it uses in authentication, pricing, search, and Athena. This scale provides a practical foundation for improving pricing accuracy, reducing unit processing costs, and accelerating sales rather than relying on artificial intelligence as an untested promise.
    • +Liquidity of $134 million and the shift to positive operating cash flow of $2 million in Q2 FY2026 support the expansion plan, while management expects strongly positive free cash flow in Q3 and Q4 FY2026, with deleveraging remaining a priority.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Accounting profitability remains negative despite improvement in adjusted EBITDA; The RealReal recorded a net loss of $27.2 million in Q2 FY2026, while its FY2026 trailing-twelve-month loss was approximately $81.1 million and earnings per share were negative $0.67.
    • −The Q3 FY2026 outlook indicates a slowdown from the previous quarter's pace, with management expecting gross merchandise value growth of between 17% and 19%, compared with 22% in Q2, and revenue growth of between 12% and 14%, compared with 17%. Any additional weakness in supply or demand could make achieving the raised full-year range more difficult.
    • −The take rate declined 200 basis points year over year to 35.9% in Q2 FY2026 due to the increased weighting of items valued above $1,000. Although these items generate greater profit per transaction, a continued mix shift toward them could keep revenue growth slower than gross merchandise value growth.
    • −The efficiency targets depend on executing operational projects that have not yet been completed, including increasing Athena coverage to approximately 50% and launching the automated storage and retrieval system in Q4 FY2026 to increase capacity at the Perth Amboy facility by 35%. Any delay in scaling or underperformance against the estimated savings of several dollars per item could slow the path toward the targeted margin.
    • −The absence of a usable price-to-earnings multiple due to continued losses makes REAL's valuation more dependent on achieving growth, adjusted EBITDA, and cash flow expectations. The wide 52-week range of between $7.30 and $17.392 also reflects high sensitivity to repricing if results deviate from the stated trajectory.
    • −Insiders recorded net sales of $1.9 million during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 21, 2026, across 16 sales and no purchases. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence of the motives behind those transactions.

    Valuation

    The average analyst price target is $15.75 within a wide range of between $13 and $19, and the consensus rates the stock a Buy; the average is below the 52-week high of $17.392, while the upper end of the target range exceeds that high. A price-to-earnings multiple is unavailable because of the FY2026 trailing-twelve-month loss of $81.1 million, so the valuation rationale depends on converting gross merchandise value growth and adjusted EBITDA improvement into sustainable earnings and cash flows. The divergence among analyst targets and the 52-week range of between $7.30 and $17.392 highlight the degree of uncertainty surrounding the speed of this transition.

    BuyAnalyst target: $15.75(+60.2%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How does The RealReal generate revenue from the secondhand luxury goods market?

    The RealReal takes possession of goods, authenticates, prices, and markets them, and then sells them through its platform, generating most of its economics from consignment commissions alongside direct revenue. The take rate was 35.9% in Q2 FY2026, down 200 basis points year over year due to the increased weighting of higher-priced items. Consignment revenue grew 15% and direct revenue increased 26% during the same period. Total revenue was $192.6 million against gross merchandise value of $617 million.

    What made REAL's Q2 FY2026 results strong?

    Gross merchandise value grew 22% to a record $617 million, and revenue increased 17% to $192.6 million. Orders rose 8%, average order value increased 13% to $659, and trailing-twelve-month active buyers exceeded 1.1 million, growing 11%. Gross profit reached $143.2 million at a 74.4% margin, while adjusted EBITDA reached $13.5 million at a 7% margin. Nevertheless, net income remained negative, with a loss of $27.2 million.

    How does The RealReal use artificial intelligence in its operations?

    The Athena system uses artificial intelligence to automate item intake and processed approximately 35% of items by the end of FY2025, with a target of approximately 50% by the end of FY2026. Management says the system reduces processing costs by several dollars per unit and accelerates the listing of items for sale. The pricing algorithm also relies on more than 100 data points, including item category, views, and Obsessions signals, to set the initial price and manage discounts. The company is also testing a conversational agent with Google to help buyers search across more than one million unique listings.

    What is The RealReal management's outlook for FY2026?

    Management expects gross merchandise value of between $2.535 billion and $2.565 billion, representing annual growth of between 19% and 20%. The revenue range is between $788 million and $797 million, representing growth of between 14% and 15%, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $66 million and $69 million. The midpoint of the adjusted EBITDA range represents an 8.5% margin and an improvement of approximately 240 basis points from FY2025. For Q3 FY2026, the company expects revenue of between $194 million and $198 million and adjusted EBITDA of between $13.5 million and $14.5 million.

    Is The RealReal approaching sustainable profitability?

    Adjusted EBITDA reached $13.5 million in Q2 FY2026, and its margin expanded 290 basis points to 7%. The company also generated $2 million in operating cash flow, a year-over-year improvement of $5 million, while free cash flow improved by $9 million. In contrast, the EDGAR financial statements recorded a quarterly net loss of $27.2 million, and the trailing-twelve-month loss reached $81.1 million. Management is targeting an adjusted EBITDA margin of between 15% and 20% over the medium term, but sustainable net profitability has not yet appeared in the figures provided.

    What does the growth in sales of items valued above $1,000 mean for REAL stock?

    Sales of items valued above $1,000 increased 36% in the first half of FY2026, with growth spanning fine jewelry, watches, handbags, and ready-to-wear. This shift helped increase average order value by 13% to $659 in Q2 FY2026. Higher-priced items generate greater profit per transaction and stronger unit economics, according to management. However, they carry a relatively lower take rate, which contributed to the decline in the overall take rate to 35.9% and the widening gap between gross merchandise value growth and revenue growth.