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Stocks
Radian Group Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall92
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 6/9Better than 92% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
84
9.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
86
41.9%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
68
——Top tier
▸
Safety
59
——Around median
▸
Capital Return
79
2.86%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
67
3.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
36
33Bottom tier
RDN

RDN Radian Group Inc.

Radian Group Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
35.62
▼ ⁦-1.66%⁩ (-0.60)
Market Cap$4.7B
Beta0.71
52w Low52w High
31.5041.05
Last Week
⁦-2.38%⁩
Last Month
⁦-2.04%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+2.56%⁩
Last Year
⁦+2.27%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$36
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$41
⁦+15%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$35–$47⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$334
⁦+838%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦12⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$41–$334⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$41.00
⁦+15.1%⁩
Current Price $35.62·Median $41.00
Low
$35.00
High
$47.00
Current price
$35.62
Average target
$41.00
Street summary

Radian Group (RDN) Price Target Analysis

The consensus price target for Radian Group has seen a decline over the past thirty days, falling from $43 to $41, representing a decrease of 4.65%. Despite this reduction, the current price of $36.5 is still trading below the average price target, suggesting a potential positive price gap, although confidence in this target is tempered by the limited number of analysts contributing to the latest valuation.

As of 2026-08-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.20
Buy
Analyst coverage
5
Buy conviction
80%
High
Target dispersion
34%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time5 analysts rating
2
2
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.00 → 4.20
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-05-22
    RBC Capital
    Sector PerformOutperform· $47.00
  • = Reiterate2026-05-11
    Barclays
    —· $39.00
  • = Reiterate2026-02-23
    Barclays
    —· $40.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    9.09x
    3.16x25.26x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    6.71x
    2.76x22.06x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • FCF Yield
    —
    —
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    41.9%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -1.5%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    —
    —
  • ROIC
    —
    —
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    2.9%
    0.6%9.0%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    26.5%
    9.8%97.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Radian Group operates through two core insurance businesses: U.S. mortgage insurance and specialty insurance and reinsurance through Inigo. The mortgage business generates premiums from an insurance-in-force portfolio that reached a record $284 billion in Q2 FY2026, while Inigo broadens premium sources across 17 specialty insurance lines. In parallel, the company is streamlining its portfolio; it sold its real estate services business to PLACE and signed an agreement to sell its title business, after exiting the mortgage conduit business earlier in FY2026.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue reached $575.0 million, up 93% year over year, while net income was $115.9 million and earnings per share were $0.85, according to EDGAR data. Net premiums earned rose 116% to $504 million, while net investment income reached $75 million, up 21% year over year. The company recorded a GAAP return on equity of 10% and an adjusted operating return of 13%, with adjusted operating earnings per share of $1.14.

Inigo materially changed Radian's business mix in its first full quarter within the group; the specialty insurance segment accounted for approximately 50% of total revenue and 53% of net premiums earned in Q2 FY2026. The segment generated $267 million in net premiums earned, but recorded a loss provision of $169 million and a combined ratio of 98% after accounting for reserves related to developments in the Middle East. By contrast, the mortgage business continued to generate capital, with $16.3 billion of new insurance written, up 14% year over year.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The group's financial scale nearly doubled following the integration of Inigo; Q2 FY2026 revenue rose 93% to $575 million, and premiums became almost evenly distributed between the mortgage and specialty insurance businesses.
  • Management expects specialty insurance premiums earned in the second half of FY2026 to be approximately 20% higher than in the first half, due to the seasonal pattern of revenue recognition, while targeting a combined ratio in the low 90s range in the current pricing environment.
  • New insurance written in the mortgage business reached $16.3 billion, and insurance in force rose 3% year over year to $284 billion, while new defaults declined 9% from the previous quarter to approximately 12,400 and the portfolio default rate fell to 2.47%.
  • Radian raised its guidance for distributions from Radian Guaranty to the holding company during FY2026 to at least $650 million, after paying $340 million in the first half, supporting liquidity, share repurchases, and debt repayment.
  • The company repurchased $176 million of shares from the beginning of FY2026 through the date of the call and expects to end the year near the upper end of its $200 to $250 million range, with execution remaining subject to market conditions.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The mortgage business provides a strong earnings and capital base; insurance in force reached $284 billion, cures exceeded new defaults, and improved cure activity enabled a favorable $20 million release from reserves for prior-period defaults.
  • +Inigo added meaningful diversification, with the specialty insurance segment contributing approximately half of revenue and 53% of net premiums earned in Q2 FY2026, while segment premiums grew 9% year over year to $267 million.
  • +The balance sheet supports capital allocation flexibility; holding-company liquidity reached $412 million, excess capital above PMIERs requirements was approximately $1.5 billion, and the holding company's leverage ratio declined to 19%.
  • +Book value per share grew 8.5% year over year to $36, and during Q2 FY2026 the company repurchased 2.2 million shares for $76 million, alongside total quarterly cash dividends of $37 million.

▼ Selling Case5 pts

  • −

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates RDN a “Buy,” with an average price target of $41, a high of $47, and a low of $35. The average target is effectively at the upper end of the 52-week range of $31.50 to $41.05, while the wide spread between the $35 and $47 targets reveals uncertainty regarding the impact of Inigo and losses related to the Middle East. The positive consensus is balanced by the downgrade published on August 6, 2026, after Q2 FY2026 results fell short of expectations.

BuyAnalyst target: $41(+15.1%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-30; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What changed Radian's business model during FY2026?

Radian completed the acquisition of Inigo and integrated it, transforming from a company focused on U.S. mortgage insurance into a multiline insurer with a global specialty business. In Q2 FY2026, the specialty insurance segment accounted for approximately 50% of revenue and 53% of net premiums earned. The company also sold its real estate services business to PLACE and signed an agreement to sell its title business as part of its focus on the mortgage and specialty insurance businesses.

How did the mortgage insurance business perform in Q2 FY2026?

New insurance written reached $16.3 billion, up 14% year over year, and insurance in force reached a record $284 billion. New defaults declined 9% from the previous quarter to approximately 12,400, and cures exceeded defaults, reducing the portfolio default rate to 2.47%. Improved cure activity also resulted in $20 million of favorable development in reserves for prior defaults, while the segment's operating expenses declined 7% year over year.

What was the impact of Middle East losses on Radian's results?

The specialty insurance segment recorded a total loss provision of $169 million in Q2 FY2026. Management explained that approximately $30 million was related to expected and potential claims and an adjustment to inflation assumptions due to developments in the Middle East. These items raised the segment's combined ratio to 98%, compared with a level that generally would have been in the mid-to-high 80s without them.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The expansion into specialty insurance exposed earnings to greater loss volatility; the segment's loss provision reached $169 million in Q2 FY2026, and the results included approximately $30 million of reserves related to expected and potential claims and inflation adjustments arising from developments in the Middle East.
  • −Inigo faces a more competitive pricing cycle, particularly in property insurance and reinsurance, and management expects the underlying combined ratio to shift from historical levels in the mid-to-high 80s to the low 90s, implying that underwriting margins will gradually decline even if premiums continue to grow.
  • −The mortgage business shows signs of slowing policy retention; although the Q2 FY2026 call cited a persistency rate of 82%, news dated August 6, 2026 described the level as the lowest since Q3 FY2022, which could shorten the premium collection period from the insurance-in-force portfolio if the trend continues.
  • −The failure to meet Q2 FY2026 earnings expectations, following specialty loss provisions, led to a stock downgrade according to news dated August 6, 2026, reflecting reduced confidence among some analysts in near-term earnings quality.
  • −Analyst targets range from $35 to $47, while the average target of $41 is approximately equal to the upper end of the 52-week range of $41.05; therefore, the positive outlook requires the valuation to return toward the peak of its annual range despite pressure from Middle East losses and declining specialty insurance margins.
  • What is Radian's outlook for specialty insurance in the second half of FY2026?

    Management expects premiums earned in the second half of FY2026 to increase by approximately 20% over the first half due to the seasonality of revenue recognition. At the same time, it believes that a combined ratio in the low 90s better reflects the current market environment following pricing declines and intensifying competition. The company emphasizes that it will prioritize profitability and pricing adequacy across Inigo's 17 lines, rather than pursuing a specific premium growth target.

    How is Radian using capital and liquidity in FY2026?

    The company raised its expectation for distributions from Radian Guaranty to the holding company to at least $650 million during FY2026, of which $340 million was paid in the first half. Holding-company liquidity reached $412 million at the end of Q2 FY2026, after repaying $75 million of the credit facility, with the remaining $75 million balance expected to be repaid during the same year. Share repurchases also reached $176 million from the beginning of the year through the date of the call, and management expects to end the year near the upper end of the $200 to $250 million range.