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Home
Stocks
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall55
Balanced — near the middle of the marketContrarianF 8/9Better than 55% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
62
16.0x▲17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
71
8.7%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
73
16.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
42
3.2x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
42
1.35%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
35
-11.1%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
63
15▲3Around median
RCL

RCL Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. · NYSE
Market Closed
260.14
▲ ⁦+0.44%⁩ (+1.13)
Market Cap$69.8B
Beta1.78
52w Low52w High
232.10356.39
Last Week
⁦-2.04%⁩
Last Month
⁦-15.54%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-9.66%⁩
Last Year
⁦-23.82%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$260
Analyst target · 6 analysts
$367
⁦+41%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$296–$415⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$120
⁦-54%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦12.3⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$120–$367⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 6 analysts setting price target
$348.09
⁦+33.8%⁩
Current Price $260.14·Median $367.00
Low
$296.00
High
$415.00
Current price
$260.14
Average target
$348.09
Street summary

Royal Caribbean (RCL) Price Target Revision Analysis

The consensus price target for Royal Caribbean stock has seen a decline of 1.81% over the past seven days, falling from 354.5 to 348.09, despite remaining stable above the current price of 308. This recent decline reflects a degree of short-term caution, especially with a dispersion in analyst estimates ranging from a high of 415 to a low of 296, which places the lower bound below the current trading level.

As of 2026-08-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.79
Buy
Analyst coverage
28
Buy conviction
68%
High
Target dispersion
46%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time28 analysts rating
3
16
9
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.74 → 3.79
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-03
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Susquehanna
    Positive
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    16.05x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    14.22x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    13.31x
    2.75x22.03x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    7.2%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.7%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    19.3%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    49.1%
    12.0%66.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    16.0%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.24x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.3%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    21.6%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. operates a cruise vacation platform that includes the Royal Caribbean, Celebrity Cruises, and Silversea brands, generating revenue from cruise tickets and experience-related spending onboard and before sailing. In fiscal Q2 2026, the group delivered 2.4 million vacations, more than 90% of guests used its app, and more than half of onboard activity revenue was purchased before sailing; these channels help the company increase spending and repeat bookings through its loyalty program and the co-branded Royal ONE card.

In fiscal Q2 2026, revenue reached $4.83 billion, representing 6% year-over-year growth, and adjusted earnings per share reached $4.21, exceeding the midpoint of management's guidance by $0.33. The company recorded earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $1.8 billion and a margin of 38%, with capacity growth of 5% and net yield growth of 1.2%, which was 100 basis points above its guidance.

EDGAR data shows that fiscal Q1 2026 revenue reached $4.5 billion, gross profit was $2.2 billion, net income was $941 million, and earnings per share were $3.48. On a trailing-twelve-month basis in fiscal 2026, revenue reached $18.4 billion, gross profit was $9.1 billion, and net income was $4.5 billion, compared with revenue of $17.9 billion and net income of $4.3 billion in fiscal 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management raised its adjusted earnings per share guidance for fiscal 2026 to a range of $17.73 to $17.87, representing expected growth of 14%, after adjusted earnings per share in fiscal Q2 2026 exceeded the midpoint of guidance by $0.33.
  • The company expects revenue growth of 9% in fiscal 2026, driven by a 6.6% increase in capacity and net yield growth of between 1.75% and 2.25%. Bookings for fiscal 2026 and 2027 were at record prices, and management confirmed that fiscal 2027 bookings were progressing at strong volumes and higher prices than in the comparable period.
  • Incremental spending supports cruise economics; onboard spending and pre-cruise purchases exceeded prior-year levels, with the increase concentrated in beverages and shore excursions. More than 90% of guests use the app, and its monthly active user count has increased fivefold since 2019, while more than half of onboard activity revenue was purchased before sailing.
  • Royal ONE has exceeded expectations since its launch in April 2026 in terms of enrollment and spending, and cardholders were twice as likely to sail multiple times. Points Choice and Status Match also added more than 500 thousand new loyalty program enrollments, and management said repeat guests spend between 20% and 25% more.
  • New products support the company's pricing power, including Legend of the Seas, Royal Beach Club in Paradise Island, Santorini, and Celebrity River. Management described Royal Beach Club in Nassau as the company's highest-rated experience in Bahamas, while it expected to welcome nearly 4 million guests at Perfect Day during fiscal 2026.
  • Institutions increased their positions in the stock during fiscal Q2 2026; BlackRock built a stake of more than 20.6 million shares, with a reported value of $6.55 billion and ownership of 7.71%, while Assenagon increased its stake by 278.7% to 23,007 shares.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The fiscal 2026 outlook combines revenue growth of 9% with adjusted earnings per share growth of 14%, indicating that earnings are benefiting from increased capacity and operating discipline, rather than capacity growth alone.
  • +The earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization margin reached 38% in fiscal Q2 2026, and operations generated cash flow of $1.9 billion, while management expects net cruise costs excluding fuel to remain approximately flat during fiscal 2026.
  • +Caribbean represents approximately 57% of fiscal 2026 capacity and is supported by Icon Class ships, Perfect Day, and Royal Beach Club, while the company achieved a Net Promoter Score in the low-to-mid 70s. This differentiation helped increase close-in demand and pricing despite increased industry capacity in the region.
  • +The company ended fiscal Q2 2026 with liquidity of $6.9 billion and leverage below three times, and returned more than $600 million to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. This included dividends of $404 million and the repurchase of 0.8 million shares, with $805 million remaining under the existing authorization.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $348.09, with a wide range between $296 and $415 and a consensus rating of "Buy"; the average is below the high of $366.5 within the 52-week range of $232.1–$366.5. The upper end reflects optimism about continued earnings and booking growth, while the lower end is consistent with debt risks, weak fiscal Q3 2026 yields, and European geopolitical exposure; the available data does not provide a valid price-to-earnings ratio for adding another valuation comparison.

BuyAnalyst target: $348.09(+33.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove RCL's results in fiscal Q2 2026?

Fiscal Q2 2026 revenue reached approximately $4.83 billion, representing 6% year-over-year growth, and adjusted earnings per share reached $4.21. Net yield grew 1.2% and exceeded guidance by 100 basis points due to close-in demand and strong onboard spending, particularly in Caribbean. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization also reached $1.8 billion at a 38% margin, while operating cash flow reached $1.9 billion.

What is Royal Caribbean's guidance for fiscal 2026?

Management expects adjusted earnings per share of between $17.73 and $17.87 in fiscal 2026, representing growth of 14%. It also expects revenue growth of 9%, with a 6.6% increase in capacity and net yield growth of between 1.75% and 2.25%. Net cruise costs excluding fuel are expected to remain approximately flat, while annual fuel expense was estimated at approximately $1.3 billion, and 58% of the remaining fiscal 2026 requirements were hedged at prices well below the market prices cited during the call.

How do Europe and geopolitical events affect RCL?

Management said on July 28, 2026 that the ongoing conflict in Middle East had a modest impact on bookings for some European cruises and on destination preferences. Europe represents approximately 14% of fiscal 2026 capacity and 28% of fiscal Q3 2026 capacity, so the impact is concentrated in that quarter. The company expects net yield to be approximately flat in fiscal Q3 2026, followed by renewed growth acceleration in fiscal Q4 2026, supported by comparisons, deployment mix, and dry-dock timing.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Leverage remains a significant obligation despite declining to below three times; in August 2026, the company began refinancing $1.25 billion of debt. Extending maturities reduces liquidity pressure, but underscores the continued sensitivity of cash flows to financing costs and the size of its obligations.
  • −The ongoing conflict in Middle East affected bookings for some European cruises and destination preferences, and reduced the yield outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026. Europe represents approximately 14% of fiscal 2026 capacity but rises to 28% in fiscal Q3 2026, concentrating the impact of geographic weakness in an important period.
  • −Management expects net yield to be approximately flat in fiscal Q3 2026 despite capacity growth of 8.5%, with a negative impact of approximately 200 basis points from deployment mix, dry-dock timing, and global events. Net cruise costs excluding fuel also increased 3.9% in fiscal Q2 2026, although they were approximately 90 basis points better than expected because some costs shifted to the second half.
  • −Caribbean faces elevated industry capacity and promotional offers from competitors, while representing 57% of the company's fiscal 2026 capacity. Management believes that ships, destinations, and loyalty programs partially insulate its business from competitive pressure, but this concentration makes maintaining pricing and yields in the region a critical financial factor.
  • −Management acknowledged that government and community discussions regarding the Mahahual project in Mexico would affect the previously planned timeline. Any subsequent changes could lead to marginal adjustments in ship deployment between western and eastern Caribbean, although management did not expect a material impact on its ability to generate demand during the July 28, 2026 call.
  • −Net insider activity during the three months ended with the latest transaction on July 29, 2026 was a sale valued at $4 million, with one sale transaction and no purchases. This remains a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the context provides no evidence that it reflects a change in the operating outlook.
How does RCL use technology and loyalty to increase guest spending?

More than 90% of guests use the company's app, and its monthly active user count has increased fivefold since 2019. More than half of onboard activity revenue was purchased before sailing, and the company uses AI-driven models to manage approximately 20 million price points and optimize yield. Since April 2026, the Royal ONE card has exceeded enrollment and spending expectations, while Points Choice and Status Match added more than 500 thousand new loyalty program enrollments.

What is the state of RCL's balance sheet and capital returns?

The company ended fiscal Q2 2026 with liquidity of $6.9 billion and leverage below three times. In July 2026, it increased the capacity of its revolving credit facility by $250 million to $6.6 billion, but it also began refinancing $1.25 billion of debt according to an August 24, 2026 report. During the quarter, it paid $404 million in dividends and repurchased 0.8 million shares, with $805 million remaining under the repurchase authorization.

How important are Legend of the Seas, Celebrity River, and Royal Beach Club to RCL's growth?

Legend of the Seas introduced Icon Class to Europe for the first time, after which the company planned to return it to Caribbean in fiscal Q4 2026. Management described Royal Beach Club in Nassau as its highest-rated experience in Bahamas and expected Perfect Day visitors to approach 4 million guests during fiscal 2026. Celebrity River expands the ecosystem into river cruises, and management said its realized pricing was higher than that of the competing group mentioned during the call and that Royal Caribbean guests had shown interest in it.