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Stocks
Ryder System, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall76
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 9/9DistressBetter than 76% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
80
19.8x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
30
1.1%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
60
6.6%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
43
3.2x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
74
1.50%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
74
39.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
62
6▲3Around median
R

R Ryder System, Inc.

Ryder System, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
243.30
▲ ⁦+0.70%⁩ (+1.70)
Market Cap$9.3B
Beta1.01
52w Low52w High
157.67284.25
Last Week
⁦-1.49%⁩
Last Month
⁦-5.91%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.15%⁩
Last Year
⁦+30.02%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$243
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$300
⁦+23%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$245–$320⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$81
⁦-67%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.9⁩% discount · ⁦1⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$81–$300⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$294.17
⁦+20.9%⁩
Current Price $243.30·Median $300.00
Low
$245.00
High
$320.00
Current price
$243.30
Average target
$294.17
Street summary

Consensus Stability Amid a Wider Estimate Range

Price targets did not change over the last 30 days; the consensus remained at 294.17, implying a theoretical increase of approximately 19.1% from the current price of 246.89. However, the number of analysts increased from 2 to 4, strengthening the consensus base without establishing a new bullish trend. The target range is wide, between 245 and 320, reflecting clear valuation divergence; the low target is close to the current price, while the high target raises the optimism margin.

As of 2026-09-08
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.82
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦11 (+2)⁩
New coverage
Buy conviction
64%
Mixed
Target dispersion
31%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
2
5
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.90 → 3.82
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Susquehanna
    Positive
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    19.80x
    5.69x45.54x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    15.20x
    4.57x36.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    6.75x
    3.43x27.47x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.4%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    1.1%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    4.8%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    19.0%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    6.6%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.16x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    1.5%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    29.8%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    1.52
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

Ryder System, Inc. operates in transportation and logistics solutions in North America through three integrated segments: Fleet Management Solutions for fleet management, leasing, and used vehicle sales; Supply Chain Solutions for warehouse and supply chain operations; and Dedicated Transportation Solutions for dedicated transportation services. More than 90% of its revenue is generated from long-term contracts, and customers representing 60% of revenue use more than one service within its solutions extending from the port to the customer's door. Management expects about 60% of fiscal year 2026 revenue to come from the less capital-intensive Supply Chain and Dedicated businesses, compared with 44% in 2018.

In quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, Ryder reported EDGAR revenue of $3.3 billion, net income of $133 million, and diluted earnings per share of $3.39, equivalent to a net income margin of approximately 4.0%. The company also reported operating revenue of $2.7 billion, up 3% year over year, and adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations rose 12% to $3.73, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of adjusted earnings growth. Free cash flow increased to $684 million from $461 million as capital expenditures declined.

Performance varied across segments in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026; Fleet Management Solutions' earnings before taxes rose 20% to $150 million, and its margin reached 11.5% of operating revenue. Supply Chain Solutions' operating revenue grew 7%, but its earnings before taxes declined 7% and its margin reached 8.4%, while Dedicated Transportation Solutions' operating revenue fell 3% and its margin remained at 7.9%. For the annual comparison, Ryder ended fiscal year 2025 with revenue of $12.7 billion, net income of $499 million, and earnings per share of $11.94.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Ryder raised the lower end of its adjusted earnings per share outlook for fiscal year 2026 from $14.05 to $14.40 and maintained the upper end at $14.80, while also raising its return on equity outlook to 18%. The revision reflects an improved outlook for used vehicle sales, with expected gains from this business now at approximately $40 million, $10 million above the previous forecast.
  • The company expects to achieve $70 million in incremental benefits from strategic initiatives during fiscal year 2026, as part of a $170 million multi-year program launched in 2024 that delivered $100 million in benefits during 2024 and 2025. The drivers include ChoiceLease contract pricing, lower maintenance costs, operating flexibility in Dedicated, and optimization of the omnichannel retail network in Supply Chain.
  • Used vehicle market indicators improved in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026; tractor prices rose 3% and truck prices rose 6% year over year, while retail prices improved sequentially by 3% for tractors and 7% for trucks. Ryder sold approximately 5,100 vehicles, and inventory declined to 8,500 vehicles within the target range, while selling prices remained above the residual value estimates used in depreciation.
  • Commercial rental fleet utilization returned to the target level of 75% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, even though the average fleet was 15% smaller than in the prior year. Utilization increased from 72% in April 2026 to 78% in June 2026, while rental pricing rose 1% year over year, supporting earnings if the improvement in demand continues.
  • Contract activity remained strong across all three segments in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026; Fleet Management Solutions recorded two consecutive quarters of positive net sales, Dedicated opportunities reached record levels, and retail sales within Supply Chain grew 24%. Ryder is also working to embed Agentic AI in the RyderShare and RyderGyde platforms and in customer service and roadside assistance, alongside deploying automation and robotics within warehouses.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The contractual revenue base, which exceeds 90% of revenue, provides a degree of stability through freight cycles, while the shift toward the less capital-intensive Supply Chain and Dedicated businesses reduces relative dependence on cyclical activities in Fleet Management Solutions.
  • +The operating initiatives have demonstrated their impact on profitability; Fleet Management Solutions' earnings before taxes rose 20% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, and the company achieved its seventh consecutive quarter of adjusted earnings per share growth, with $70 million in incremental benefits still targeted during fiscal year 2026.
  • +Liquidity and capital allocation provide additional support for shareholders; Ryder returned $406 million through share repurchases and dividends from the beginning of fiscal year 2026 through the end of quarter 2, and the board approved a new discretionary program to repurchase two million shares and an 11% increase in the quarterly dividend.
  • +Management estimates that the cyclical recovery could add $250 million in benefits by the peak of the next cycle, most of it from rental and used vehicle sales within Fleet Management Solutions. In fiscal year 2026 alone, the estimated recovery benefits increased to approximately $20 million from $10 million, driven primarily by improved used vehicle sales.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $294.17, with a “Buy” consensus and a wide range between $245 and $320; the average is only about 3.5% above the 52-week range high of $284.25, while the range low is $157.67. The wide dispersion in targets reflects differing assessments of the speed of the rental and used vehicle recovery and the ability of new Supply Chain business to reach its targeted productivity, and the data does not include a valid earnings multiple that could be used as an additional valuation anchor.

BuyAnalyst target: $294.17(+20.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What is the primary driver of Ryder's stock earnings during fiscal year 2026?

Ryder is targeting adjusted earnings per share of between $14.40 and $14.80 in fiscal year 2026, after raising the lower end from $14.05. The most important structural driver is $70 million in incremental benefits from pricing, cost reduction, and operating network optimization initiatives. The company also expects approximately $40 million in gains from used vehicle sales and approximately $20 million in cyclical recovery benefits during fiscal year 2026.

How dependent is Ryder on long-term contracts?

More than 90% of Ryder's revenue comes from long-term contracts, reducing business model volatility compared with full reliance on rental and used vehicle sales. Management expects the less capital-intensive Supply Chain and Dedicated businesses to generate approximately 60% of fiscal year 2026 revenue, compared with 44% in 2018. In addition, 60% of revenue comes from customers that use more than one service within Ryder's solutions extending from the port to the customer's door.

Has the recovering freight market begun to affect Ryder's results?

Initial indicators appeared in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, including rental fleet utilization returning to 75% and sequential retail price improvements of 7% for trucks and 3% for tractors. Fleet Management Solutions also recorded two consecutive quarters of positive net sales, and the Dedicated opportunity pipeline reached record levels. However, rental demand remained below prior-year levels and historical seasonal trends, so the company did not assume a significant acceleration in rental in its fiscal year 2026 outlook.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Supply Chain Solutions has meaningful exposure to the automotive sector; new business only partially offset lost automotive business, while weaker results and plant retooling for EV and ICE vehicles led the segment's earnings before taxes to decline 7% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026. The segment's margin fell to 8.4% from 9.7% in the record comparable quarter.
  • −The launch of some new contracts in Supply Chain Solutions was delayed from fiscal year 2026 to 2027, while volumes for some projects that began operations were below expectations. This partially offset the impact of the improved used vehicle sales outlook, limiting the benefit to fiscal year 2026 second-half results from the strong sales pipeline.
  • −Rental demand in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 remained below its prior-year level and historical seasonal patterns, and the acceleration Ryder needs to expand the fleet significantly has not yet materialized. A significant portion of the estimated cyclical recovery benefit of approximately $250 million depends on the return of rental and used vehicle sales, while management emphasized that macroeconomic and geopolitical factors could affect the speed and durability of the recovery.
  • −Dedicated Transportation Solutions' operating revenue declined 3% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 due to a lower vehicle count, and its earnings were also hurt by adverse developments in insurance claims related to prior years. Although the margin reached 7.9%, a return to fleet growth depends on converting the strong sales pipeline into operating vehicles following implementation periods.
  • −Amazon's more formal entry into some supply chain services represents a potential competitive risk, particularly in shared warehousing solutions and the retail sector. Ryder had not observed direct competition with it in requests for proposals as of the July 23, 2026 call, but the expansion of Amazon's offering could create greater pressure if competition extends to dedicated locations and solutions tailored to each customer.
  • −New vehicle costs remain exposed to regulatory changes, inflation, and tariffs; during the July 23, 2026 call, Ryder was awaiting manufacturers' determination of price increases related to EPA rules, inflationary costs, and tariffs. Significant increases could raise capital requirements or customer costs, particularly with expected capital spending of $2.4 billion and net capital spending of $1.9 billion in fiscal year 2026.
Why did Supply Chain Solutions' profitability decline despite revenue growth?

The segment's operating revenue grew 7% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026 due to new business, but its earnings before taxes declined 7%. The pressure came from lost automotive business, plant retooling for EV and ICE vehicles, and lower productivity in some new projects during the startup phase. The earnings before taxes margin was 8.4%, compared with 9.7% in quarter 2 of fiscal year 2025, which management described as a record level for that quarter.

How does Ryder use cash flow and available capital?

Ryder expects free cash flow of between $700 million and $800 million in fiscal year 2026, despite expected net capital expenditures of $1.9 billion. Over three years, the company expects $10.5 billion in operating cash flow and vehicle sales proceeds, with approximately $4.5 billion flexibly available after fleet replacement and dividends. Through the end of quarter 2 of fiscal year 2026, it returned $406 million to shareholders and approved the repurchase of two million shares and an 11% increase in the quarterly dividend.

What is the significance of insider sales in Ryder's stock?

The data indicates net insider sales of $1.4 million over three months, through two sales and no recorded purchases, with the latest transaction dated May 29, 2026. This signal is a secondary factor compared with quarter 2 fiscal year 2026 results and the adjusted earnings per share outlook of between $14.40 and $14.80. Insider sales may be prearranged, and the data does not include evidence that these transactions reflect a change in management's business outlook.