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Stocks
Qfin Holdings, Inc.
QFIN

QFIN Qfin Holdings, Inc.

Qfin Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
8.47
▲ ⁦+0.00%⁩ (0.00)
Market Cap$1.1B
Beta0.62
52w Low52w High
8.3532.69
Last Week
⁦-0.94%⁩
Last Month
⁦-35.00%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-49.91%⁩
Last Year
⁦-70.80%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall84
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 5/9Better than 84% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
98
2.2x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
23
6.0%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
84
——Top tier
▸
Safety
60
——Around median
▸
Capital Return
98
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
1
-55.4%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
82
7▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$8.47
Analyst target · 7 analysts
$14
⁦+67%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$13–$15⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 7 analysts setting price target
$14.18
⁦+67.4%⁩
Current Price $8.47·Median $14.17
Low
$13.00
High
$15.40
Current price
$8.47
Average target
$14.18
Street summary

QFIN Price Targets Hold Steady Amid Divergent Valuations

The consensus estimates for the price target have not changed over the last 7 days, remaining at 14.18 with seven analysts. Over the last 30 days, they rose marginally from 14.17 to 14.18, an increase of 0.01 or 0.07%, with no change in the number of analysts. The current range is between 13 and 15.4, reflecting relatively limited dispersion around the consensus, while the current price is 8.47.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.62
Buy
Analyst coverage
13
Buy conviction
62%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
28%
Analyst ratings over time13 analysts rating
3
5
3
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.17 → 3.62
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-10
    Bank of America Securities
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-08-26
    Jefferies
    Buy
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-08-26
    Citigroup
    BuySell
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    2.19x
    3.16x25.26x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    —
    —
  • EV / EBITDA
    0.81x
    3.07x24.55x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    132.1%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Exceptional
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    6.0%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -40.9%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    77.1%
    23.5%98.3%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    10.5%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-25 data

Company Overview

Qfin Holdings operates a digital consumer finance platform that relies on an AI-powered engine for credit decision-making and asset allocation. The company generates revenue from more capital-intensive credit-driven services and more capital-light platform services, while expanding its capabilities through technology solutions for financial institutions and operations outside China under its One Core, Two Wings strategy. By the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, the platform served 168 financial institutions, and the cumulative number of credit-line users it had served exceeded 65 million.

In the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, net revenue amounted to 3.57 billion yuan, down from 3.91 billion yuan in the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 and 5.22 billion yuan in the comparable quarter, representing a year-over-year decline of approximately 31.6%. Credit-driven services generated 2.60 billion yuan, or approximately 72.8% of revenue, while platform services generated 969.8 million yuan, or approximately 27.2%. Non-GAAP net income amounted to 455 million yuan, compared with 946 million yuan in the previous quarter and 1.85 billion yuan in the comparable quarter, equivalent to a calculated margin of approximately 12.7% of quarterly revenue. Reported earnings per share were 0.48 dollars, versus estimates of 0.96 dollars and 1.78 dollars in the comparable quarter.

EDGAR data for fiscal year 2025 shows revenue of 19.2 billion dollars, gross profit of 16.2 billion dollars, and net income of 6.0 billion dollars, compared with revenue of 17.2 billion dollars, gross profit of 14.3 billion dollars, and net income of 6.3 billion dollars in fiscal year 2024. This implies annual revenue growth of approximately 11.6% and a calculated gross margin of approximately 84.4%, but net income declined by approximately 4.8%. Earnings per share increased from 20.64 dollars in fiscal year 2024 to 22.01 dollars in fiscal year 2025.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The decline in profitability in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 is the clearest negative driver: earnings per share were only 0.48 dollars, half the analyst estimate of 0.96 dollars, while non-GAAP net income fell by approximately 75.4% year over year to 455 million yuan.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Loan facilitation and origination volume in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 declined by 2.5% sequentially to approximately 63.4 billion yuan, then July 2026 volume declined by 15%, driven by a direct impact of approximately 10% from funding shortages alongside the company's tightening of its risk appetite. Management expects origination to remain cautious throughout the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 and does not expect volume to return to the second-quarter level in the near term.
  • Risk indicators improved during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026; the over-90-day delinquency ratio declined from 3.50% to 2.83%, the 30-day collection rate increased from 85.8% to 88.1%, and C2M2 declined from 0.80% to 0.66%. However, this trend reversed in August 2026, as the early FPD 3 and FPD 7 indicators increased by approximately 20% month over month, and management estimated that C2M2 for that month rose by approximately 25% compared with July.
  • The technology solutions business has become the fastest-growing driver; loan volume enabled by these solutions reached 10.5 billion yuan in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, representing year-over-year growth of approximately 515%, while the outstanding balance reached 16.1 billion yuan, up 313%. Qfin also secured two projects with banks to develop AI agents, including an AI loan officer for marketing and growth and an AI credit officer for managing small and medium-sized enterprise credit risk.
  • The company reduced sales and marketing expenses by 13% sequentially and 40% year over year in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, alongside a decline in new credit-line users from 1.19 million to approximately 830 thousand. The share of new users from API channels also declined by 11 percentage points, while return on assets for these channels improved by approximately 1.87 percentage points after lower-quality channels were reduced.
  • Asset-backed securities issuance increased by 90% sequentially to 5.5 billion yuan in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, while issuance costs declined by approximately 20 basis points, helping reduce the overall funding cost by approximately 10 basis points. However, external funding costs subsequently increased by approximately 25 basis points during July and August 2026, and management expects costs to trend upward during the second half of fiscal year 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The improvement recorded in asset quality during the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 provides a defensive foundation, with the over-90-day delinquency ratio declining to 2.83% and provision coverage increasing from 391% to 472%. The new provision rate for risk-bearing loans also reached a historical high of 5.36%, compared with a typical credit-cycle loss target of between 3% and 3.5%.
    • +The growth of technology solutions provides a path to diversify the business away from complete reliance on domestic consumer credit; loan volume supported by these solutions grew by 515% year over year to 10.5 billion yuan in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. The AI loan officer and AI credit officer projects with two banks support the potential to turn Qfin's credit technologies into institutional products that can be deployed within banks' workflows.
    • +According to management, the company has more diversified funding sources than many smaller platforms, and liquidity and short-term investments amounted to 10.63 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter of fiscal year 2026. The business also generated 1.09 billion yuan in operating cash flow during the quarter, despite a decline from 2.10 billion yuan in the first quarter.
    • +The exit of weaker platforms could ease competition for customer acquisition; sector acquisition spending declined by approximately 50% month over month in July 2026 and then by an additional approximately 20% in August. Qfin is responding by focusing on users with higher lifetime value and reducing low-quality API channels, instead of pursuing volume growth in a disrupted credit environment.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −The deterioration in credit and collections after the quarter-end represents the most significant operational risk; the early FPD 3 and FPD 7 indicators increased by approximately 20% month over month in August 2026, and management estimated that C2M2 rose by approximately 25% compared with July. Management expects that returning C2M2 to a reasonable level will take at least two to three fiscal quarters, as the industry-wide shortage of collection capacity persists.
    • −Loan volumes face dual pressure from funding shortages and tighter underwriting; July 2026 volume declined by 15%, and management said it does not expect a return to the second-quarter fiscal year 2026 level in the near term. Lower volume, alongside a decline in average loan pricing from 18.7% to 18.2%, threatens to keep revenue and profitability under pressure.
    • −Guidance for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026 was weak, as Qfin expects non-GAAP net income of between 400 and 500 million yuan, representing a year-over-year decline of between 67% and 73%. The guidance assumptions include a meaningful decline in loan volume and higher C-M2 and funding costs, after external funding costs rose by approximately 25 basis points during July and August 2026.
    • −The company faces broad regulatory exposure in China covering loan pricing, marketing, funding, collections, and payments, with new requirements for disclosing the comprehensive cost of financing and marketing financial products taking effect in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. The nationwide campaign targeting the collections sector since late July 2026 has also caused a severe capacity shortage and materially impaired recovery efficiency.
    • −The core business is declining at a clear pace; revenue from credit-driven services fell from 3.57 billion yuan in the comparable quarter to 2.60 billion yuan in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, while platform services declined from 1.65 billion yuan to 969.8 million yuan due to a lower contribution from ICE. Total net revenue declined by approximately 31.6% year over year, while non-GAAP net income fell by approximately 75.4%.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus on QFIN is Buy, with an average price target of 14.18 dollars and a range between 13 and 15.4 dollars, without a separate breakdown of Hold and Sell recommendations in the available data. The average target is approximately 69.8% above the 52-week low of 8.355 dollars but approximately 56.6% below the high of 32.69 dollars; this wide gap is consistent with the reassessment of profitability following the second-quarter fiscal year 2026 miss and guidance for a year-over-year decline of between 67% and 73% in third-quarter net income. No valid price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the valuation assessment is based on the target range and the dispersion of the 52-week range rather than an earnings multiple.

    BuyAnalyst target: $14.18(+67.4%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    Why did Qfin Holdings' earnings decline in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026?

    Net revenue declined to 3.57 billion yuan from 5.22 billion yuan in the comparable quarter, alongside declines in loan volumes and average pricing. Non-GAAP net income fell to 455 million yuan from 1.85 billion yuan, while earnings per share were 0.48 dollars versus estimates of 0.96 dollars. The company also recorded a non-recurring tax expense of approximately 500 million yuan that raised the effective tax rate to 60.3%, while it expects a tax rate of approximately 20% subsequently.

    What is Qfin's outlook for the third quarter of fiscal year 2026?

    Management expects non-GAAP net income of between 400 and 500 million yuan in the third quarter of fiscal year 2026. This represents a year-over-year decline of between 67% and 73%. The guidance assumes a meaningful decline in loan volume and higher C-M2 and funding costs, with risk management and efficiency prioritized over growth.

    Has Qfin's credit risk actually improved?

    The indicators recorded in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 improved, as the over-90-day delinquency ratio declined to 2.83% from 3.50%, and the 30-day collection rate increased to 88.1% from 85.8%. C2M2 also declined to 0.66% from 0.80%, while provision coverage reached 472%. However, the FPD 3 and FPD 7 indicators increased by approximately 20% month over month in August 2026, and management estimated that C2M2 for that month increased by approximately 25% compared with July.

    How important are AI solutions to Qfin's business?

    Loan volume enabled by technology solutions reached 10.5 billion yuan in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 515%, while the outstanding balance reached 16.1 billion yuan, up 313%. The company secured two projects with banks to develop an AI loan officer and an AI credit officer in the areas of marketing growth and credit risk management. The AI loan officer targets retail, small and medium-sized enterprise, and corporate banking, while the AI credit officer supports transaction analysis, audio and visual due diligence, and small and medium-sized enterprise credit reviews.

    How is Qfin dealing with the liquidity crisis in the consumer finance sector?

    The company increased the contribution of asset-backed securities, with issuance rising by 90% sequentially to 5.5 billion yuan in the second quarter of fiscal year 2026 and issuance costs declining by approximately 20 basis points. Liquidity and short-term investments amounted to 10.63 billion yuan, while leverage declined from 2.4 times to 2.1 times. Nevertheless, the company suspended share repurchases in late June 2026, tightened underwriting standards, and reduced credit limits and approval rates to protect asset quality and liquidity.

    What do QFIN's dividends and share repurchases indicate?

    The board approved a fiscal year 2026 first-half dividend of 0.23 dollars per Class A ordinary share, or 0.46 dollars per ADS, for shareholders of record on September 9, 2026. This is equivalent to a payout ratio of approximately 30%. The company had repurchased approximately 463 thousand ADS for around 7 million dollars in the second quarter, but it suspended the program in late June 2026 due to the sector's liquidity crisis and emphasized the priority of building an additional financial buffer.

  • −The 52-week range of 8.355–32.69 dollars reveals a substantial degree of risk repricing, while analysts' target range is only between 13 and 15.4 dollars. The average target of 14.18 dollars is approximately 56.6% below the high of the 52-week range, reflecting that the buy consensus does not assume a recovery to that high within the horizon of the published targets.