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QUALCOMM Incorporated
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall73
Strong — clearly above market medianHigh FlyerF 6/9SafeBetter than 73% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
44
20.8x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
17
1.9%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
89
19.1%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
82
0.7x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
61
1.97%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
60
1.2%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
43
21▲3Around median
QCOM

QCOM QUALCOMM Incorporated

QUALCOMM Incorporated · NASDAQ
Market Closed
181.97
▲ ⁦+2.88%⁩ (+5.09)
Market Cap$191.1B
Beta1.65
52w Low52w High
121.99259.92
Last Week
⁦+7.07%⁩
Last Month
⁦+11.86%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-4.83%⁩
Last Year
⁦+14.69%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$182
Analyst target · 9 analysts
$190
⁦+4%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$120–$400⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$90
⁦-51%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦11.7⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$90–$190⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 9 analysts setting price target
$204.48
⁦+12.4%⁩
Current Price $181.97·Median $190.00
Low
$120.00
High
$400.00
Current price
$181.97
Average target
$204.48
Street summary

Consensus Target Holds Steady as Piper’s Rating Declines

The consensus price target held steady at $204.48 based on 9 analysts, unchanged over the past day. It declined by approximately 0.35% over the past 7 days but rose 0.12% over the past 30 days, indicating a very limited change in expectations. The range is between $120 and $400, while the median is $190, reflecting wide divergence among analysts despite the number remaining unchanged.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.1%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.22
Hold
Analyst coverage
37
Buy conviction
30%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
154%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time37 analysts rating
2
9
23
1
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.59 → 3.22
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Piper Sandler
    OverweightNeutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Barclays
    Underweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    20.77x
    6.87x54.92x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    18.07x
    5.19x41.53x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    17.18x
    4.52x36.15x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    5.5%
    -54.8%10.8%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    1.9%
    -18.1%66.5%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -15.8%
    -155.3%193.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    54.2%
    12.9%79.5%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    19.1%
    -63.6%26.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.66x
    0.26x3.22x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    2.0%
    0.0%3.9%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    41.0%
    4.4%96.7%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    6.12
    -10.9113.66
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-29 data

Company Overview

QUALCOMM develops computing, connectivity, and semiconductor platforms serving smartphones, automotive, the Internet of Things, industrial computing, and data centers, while also generating income from licensing its intellectual property through QTL. In Q3 fiscal 2026, QCT generated $8.5 billion in revenue out of the company’s total revenue of $9.9 billion, while QTL generated $1.3 billion. Within QCT, handset revenue was $5.1 billion, Internet of Things revenue was $1.8 billion, and automotive revenue was $1.6 billion, showing that handsets remain the largest single contributor despite progress in diversification.

Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue was approximately $9.9 billion, gross profit was $5.3 billion, net income according to EDGAR data was approximately $2 billion, and earnings per share were $1.87. On a non-GAAP basis, the company reported earnings per share of $2.21, a QCT earnings-before-tax margin of 26%, and a QTL margin of 69%. Automotive posted a record quarter with revenue of $1.6 billion and year-over-year growth of 61%, while Internet of Things revenue increased 9% to $1.8 billion, and non-handset QCT revenue grew 28%.

QUALCOMM’s strategy through fiscal 2029 is based on shifting its business mix toward automotive, the Internet of Things, and data centers. Management raised its combined automotive and Internet of Things revenue target to more than $24 billion and set a target exceeding $15 billion for data centers, bringing the total non-handset revenue target to $40 billion in fiscal 2029, compared with a previous target of $22 billion. In Q3 fiscal 2026, the company returned $2.3 billion to shareholders, including $1.4 billion in share repurchases and $937 million in dividends.

What's Driving the Stock

  • QUALCOMM expects Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue of between $9.7 billion and $10.5 billion and non-GAAP earnings per share of between $2.05 and $2.25, with QCT revenue of between $8.4 billion and $9.0 billion and an earnings-before-tax margin of between 23% and 25%.
  • The company raised its forecast for the automotive annualized sales rate at the end of fiscal 2026 from $6 billion to approximately $7 billion, after segment revenue grew 61% to $1.6 billion in Q3 fiscal 2026. This is supported by the expanded agreement with BMW to supply core computing for advanced driver-assistance systems and digital cockpits across vehicle programs extending into the next decade, alongside its collaboration with Stellantis extending into the 2030s.
  • QUALCOMM is targeting data center revenue of $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion in fiscal 2029. It has two custom-chip projects with two global hyperscalers and has begun wafer production in preparation for generating revenue in the December quarter. It has also completed the HBC Gen 1 design phase and is targeting the launch of its first HBC solution in mid-2027.
  • QUALCOMM closed its acquisition of Modular Inc. on July 29, 2026, and began integrating it to deliver a comprehensive, hardware-agnostic AI software stack for data centers and edge computing. In industrial markets, the design opportunity pipeline exceeded $7 billion, including more than $3.5 billion in wins secured during fiscal 2026, while the company is targeting $8 billion in industrial networking and robotics revenue in fiscal 2029.
  • Management projected non-handset revenue growth of more than 60% in fiscal 2027, compared with 24% in fiscal 2026, and expects these businesses to exceed 50% of QCT revenue in fiscal 2027 and approach two-thirds in fiscal 2029. The company also expects growth in these businesses to replace all Apple product revenue recorded in fiscal 2026.
  • News on August 21, 2026, reported that BlackRock owned more than 95 million shares, representing 9.06% of QUALCOMM and valued at approximately $17.6 billion. This institutional position follows the announcement of quarterly revenue of $9.95 billion and a dividend of $0.92 per share.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Diversification made tangible progress in Q3 fiscal 2026, as non-handset QCT revenue grew 28%, automotive revenue increased 61% to a record $1.6 billion, and Internet of Things revenue grew 9% to $1.8 billion.
  • +Multi-generation automotive contracts with BMW and Stellantis provide longer-term revenue visibility, while management raised the expected automotive annualized sales rate at the end of fiscal 2026 to approximately $7 billion. This is supported by the ramp-up of the fifth generation of Snapdragon Digital Chassis beginning in September 2026 and increased computing content per vehicle.
  • +The two custom-chip projects, the start of wafer production, the completion of the HBC Gen 1 design, and the acquisition of Modular Inc. give the company tangible execution milestones in its transition into data centers, rather than merely a distant target. If the announced trajectory is achieved, data center revenue would rise from initial generation in the December quarter to $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and then $15 billion in fiscal 2029.
  • +QUALCOMM maintains a strong presence in premium handsets, with Snapdragon powering approximately 70% of Samsung flagship devices, according to the announcement at Samsung Unpacked. Management also expects double-digit sequential growth in QCT revenue from Chinese handset manufacturers during Q4 fiscal 2026 after reaching a trough in Q3 fiscal 2026.

Valuation

The average analyst target is $205.2 with a “Neutral” consensus, but the wide range of targets between $120 and $400 reveals substantial disagreement over QUALCOMM’s ability to offset declines in Apple and handsets through growth in automotive and data centers. The average target is below the 52-week range high of $259.92, while the lowest target is close to the range low of $121.99; the available data does not include a reliable earnings multiple, so the valuation is based primarily on execution against the fiscal 2027 and fiscal 2029 targets versus margin and supply pressures.

HoldAnalyst target: $205.2(+12.8%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What are QUALCOMM’s key figures for Q3 fiscal 2026?

QUALCOMM generated revenue of $9.9 billion, gross profit of $5.3 billion, and net income according to EDGAR data of approximately $2 billion. Earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $1.87, while non-GAAP earnings per share were $2.21. QCT recorded revenue of $8.5 billion and an earnings-before-tax margin of 26%, compared with revenue of $1.3 billion and a margin of 69% for QTL.

Is QUALCOMM actually succeeding in reducing its dependence on handsets?

Q3 fiscal 2026 results showed that non-handset QCT revenue grew 28% year over year. Automotive revenue reached a record $1.6 billion, up 61%, and Internet of Things revenue reached $1.8 billion, up 9%. However, handsets remained the largest single business within QCT, with revenue of $5.1 billion, so diversification is not yet complete.

How does the decline in Apple business affect QCOM stock?

QUALCOMM expects its share of the upcoming iPhone launch to be significantly below its previous estimate of 20% because of supply constraints and the outcome of discussions with the customer. Management expects Apple revenue to decline by approximately 50% from the September quarter to the December quarter and Apple product revenue in fiscal 2027 to be below the previous guidance of slightly more than $2 billion. The company is relying on non-handset business growth of more than 60% in fiscal 2027 to replace all Apple revenue recorded in fiscal 2026.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case7 pts

  • −QUALCOMM’s exposure to Apple remains a material risk; its expected share of the upcoming iPhone launch is now significantly below the previous estimate of 20%, and management expects Apple revenue to decline by approximately 50% from the September quarter to the December quarter. Apple product revenue in fiscal 2027 will also be below the previous guidance of slightly more than $2 billion, requiring non-handset businesses to offset this decline quickly.
  • −The handset business faces broad contraction due to rising memory prices, and management expects the handset market to decline by a low-teens percentage in fiscal 2027 compared with fiscal 2026, with the impact concentrated in lower tiers. The company estimated a 20% year-over-year decline in QCT revenue from Android handsets and an impact on earnings per share of more than $1.50.
  • −Margins face pressure from rising wafer fabrication, assembly, testing, advanced packaging, and memory costs, in addition to some device manufacturers shifting to lower-priced chips or previous generations. The company expects QCT gross margin to be slightly below its historical range of 48% to 50%, while QCT earnings-before-tax margin declines in Q4 fiscal 2026 guidance to a range of 23%–25%, compared with 26% in Q3.
  • −Even with successful pricing, the data center mix could pressure profitability; management said custom data center chip revenue will carry a substantially lower margin than the core business, reducing the weighted average QCT margin by approximately 1.5 to 2 percentage points. Operating expenses are also rising to approximately $2.7 billion in Q4 fiscal 2026 due to the integration of Modular and investment in server processors and AI accelerators before revenue ramps up.
  • −Entering data centers carries execution and competitive risks because QUALCOMM is a new entrant, and management acknowledged that customers want to see actual chips and measure their performance before making additional decisions. Therefore, achieving the $15 billion fiscal 2029 target depends on the success of HBC products, accelerators, and central processing units, and on expanding the two custom-chip projects into multi-product, multi-generation relationships.
  • −Supply constraints remain an operational risk despite management’s assertion that it has sufficient supply to execute its plans; it described industry-wide utilization of wafer fabrication, assembly, and testing capacity as close to 100%. These constraints have already contributed to the accelerated decline in the share of Apple products, while double-digit price increases require several quarters to work through contracts and product cycles and reach margins.
  • −The valuation reflects a very wide range of uncertainty, with analyst targets spanning $120 to $400, while the consensus is “Neutral” and the average target is $205.2. Insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 21, 2026, also recorded net selling of $2.1 million across 30 sales with no purchases, but this is a weak standalone indicator because these sales may have been prearranged and the context does not establish otherwise.
What is QUALCOMM’s plan for data centers and artificial intelligence?

The company is developing four product categories, including connectivity in fiscal 2026, custom chips and AI accelerators in fiscal 2027, and server central processing units in fiscal 2028. Wafer production has begun for two projects with global hyperscalers, and the company expects revenue to begin in the December quarter. The HBC Gen 1 design is also complete, with the first launch targeted for mid-2027. Management is targeting data center revenue of $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and $15 billion in fiscal 2029, while the acquisition of Modular Inc. adds a hardware-agnostic software stack.

Why is QUALCOMM’s margin under pressure despite growth in non-handset revenue?

Wafer fabrication, assembly, testing, advanced packaging, and memory costs are rising, alongside supply shortages and some handset manufacturers shifting to previous chip generations. Management therefore expects QCT gross margin to temporarily fall below its historical range of 48% to 50% and QCT earnings-before-tax margin to be 23%–25% in Q4 fiscal 2026. The company is implementing double-digit price increases across multiple markets but expects their impact to emerge gradually over several quarters because of contracts and product cycles.

What supports the growth of QUALCOMM’s automotive business?

Automotive revenue reached $1.6 billion in Q3 fiscal 2026, up 61% year over year, and the company raised its forecast for the annualized sales rate at the end of fiscal 2026 to approximately $7 billion. BMW selected QUALCOMM as a primary computing supplier for its next generation of advanced driver-assistance systems and digital cockpits, with vehicle programs extending into the next decade, while the Stellantis collaboration extends into the 2030s. The fifth generation of Snapdragon Digital Chassis begins ramping in September 2026, with a significant increase in computing content per vehicle.