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Stocks
PayPal Holdings, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall75
Strong — clearly above market medianSuper StockF 9/9Better than 75% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
90
10.4x▲18.2xTop tier
▸
Growth
53
5.7%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
96
——Top tier
▸
Safety
29
——Bottom tier
▸
Capital Return
17
0.25%▼2.10%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
52
-12.7%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
78
27▲3Top tier
PYPL

PYPL PayPal Holdings, Inc.

PayPal Holdings, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Open
53.18
▼ ⁦-3.24%⁩ (-1.78)
Market Cap$47.0B
Beta1.30
52w Low52w High
38.4679.22
Last Week
⁦-0.89%⁩
Last Month
⁦-11.04%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+28.80%⁩
Last Year
⁦-22.32%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$55
Analyst target · 15 analysts
$55
⁦+0%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$45–$70⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$91
⁦+66%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦10.1⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$55–$91⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 15 analysts setting price target
$55.88
⁦+5.1%⁩
Current Price $53.18·Median $55.00
Low
$45.00
High
$70.00
Current price
$53.18
Average target
$55.88
Street summary

PayPal price target stability with clear divergence

The average price target over the last 30 days rose from 55.53 to 55.88, an increase of 0.35 or 0.63%, while it remained unchanged over the last 7 days and 1 day, and the number of analysts remained at 15. The average is slightly above the current price of 54.96, but the target range between 45 and 70 reflects wide divergence in valuations, with a median of 55, close to the current price.

As of 2026-09-07
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.6%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.16
Hold
Analyst coverage
43
Buy conviction
16%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
47%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time43 analysts rating
3
4
33
3
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.55 → 3.16
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-31
    RBC Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-28
    Loop Capital Markets
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-08-19
    Bernstein
    Market Perform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.35x
    3.18x25.46x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    9.96x
    2.82x22.58x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    7.78x
    3.09x24.71x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    14.1%
    -20.5%18.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.7%
    -36.0%104.4%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    13.2%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    45.8%
    23.5%98.3%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    16.4%
    -36.5%24.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.83x
    0.25x7.21x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.3%
    0.6%8.8%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    2.6%
    9.8%97.9%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

PayPal operates an open digital payments network connecting consumers and merchants, and has organized its business around three pillars: checkout payment solutions through PayPal, consumer financial services through Venmo, credit, and buy now, pay later, and payment processing and cryptocurrency services that include Braintree and Hyperwallet. The company generates revenue primarily from transaction fees, alongside value-added services such as consumer and merchant credit; in Q2 FY2026, transaction revenue reached $7.8 billion, compared with approximately $850 million from other value-added services.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue rose 5% to $8.68 billion, while total payment volume reached $486 billion and grew 9% on a currency-neutral basis. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $1.38, down 1% year over year but above the company's guidance, while non-GAAP operating income declined 8% to $1.5 billion due to higher non-transaction-related operating expenses and investment in technology transformation and growth.

The growth mix became more diversified in Q2 FY2026: Venmo payment volume grew 14%, payment processing services growth accelerated to 13%, and Braintree continued to grow at a mid-teens rate, while PayPal-branded online payment growth remained at just 2% on a currency-neutral basis. Adjusted free cash flow reached $1.8 billion, while the company ended the quarter with $15.3 billion in cash and investments versus $13.4 billion in debt.

What's Driving the Stock

  • PayPal raised its FY2026 guidance to approximately $15.6 billion in transaction margin dollars, or $14.5 billion excluding interest on customer balances, and also raised its non-GAAP earnings per share forecast to $5.38 while maintaining its expectation for adjusted free cash flow of at least $6 billion.
  • Total payment volume accelerated in Q2 FY2026 to $486 billion, growing 9% on a currency-neutral basis and exceeding the analyst estimate cited in the news of $470.2 billion; Pay with Venmo also grew 44% and buy now, pay later grew 26%.
  • Venmo payment volume increased 14% for the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth, and monthly active accounts for the Venmo debit card increased by more than 50%. Average revenue per account among users of both the Venmo debit card and Pay with Venmo was more than nine times higher than among users of peer-to-peer transfers only, and the size of this group nearly doubled within a year.
  • Braintree delivered profitable growth for nine consecutive quarters, and payment processing services volume growth accelerated to 13% in Q2 FY2026, compared with 11% in the previous quarter and 7% in the second half of FY2025. PayPal is unifying Braintree, PayPal Complete Payments, and Hyperwallet into a single platform, while expanding payment and risk services, payment optimization, and embedded finance.
  • The company announced that it is targeting gross annual savings of at least $1.5 billion over two to three years and identified actions that will generate approximately $400 million in new annual savings by the end of FY2026. In contrast, it may record transformation-related charges of between $120 million and $140 million during the second half of FY2026, while reinvesting a significant portion of the savings in products, technology, and risk management.
  • News reports on August 14 and 15, 2026 indicated that Stripe and Advent International were in talks to acquire PayPal, and that PayPal rejected an initial offer from Stripe of $60.50 per share in July 2026. On the July 28, 2026 call, management declined to comment on the details of the speculation and said its focus was on executing the transformation plan while remaining open to evaluating opportunities that could deliver greater value to shareholders.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on improving growth sources outside traditional payments; Venmo grew 14%, Pay with Venmo grew 44%, and buy now, pay later grew 26% in Q2 FY2026, while financial services represented approximately 20% of the company's transaction margin and were growing at a double-digit rate.
  • +Cash generation supports investment and capital returns; PayPal generated adjusted free cash flow of $1.8 billion in Q2 FY2026, is targeting at least $6 billion for FY2026, and repurchased $1.5 billion of shares during the quarter and $6 billion during the twelve months ended with it.
  • +The savings program of at least $1.5 billion could improve the cost structure and execution speed, particularly with approximately $400 million in new annual savings identified by the end of FY2026. The long-term impact depends on successfully redirecting these savings toward Venmo, Braintree, financial services, and platform modernization without weakening operating leverage.
  • +The acquisition talks reported in August 2026 represent an additional potential catalyst, particularly after the rejection of an initial offer of $60.50 per share in July 2026. However, this scenario remains tied to press reports and discussions whose outcome the company has not announced, so it is not a substitute for evaluating standalone operating performance.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is Neutral, with an average price target of $56.87 and a wide range between $45 and $70, reflecting meaningful divergence in estimates of the transformation's success and the acquisition talks. The average target is approximately 28% below the 52-week range high of $79.215, while the lowest target exceeds the annual low of $38.46; this gap is consistent with a revaluation driven by challenges in branded payment growth and expense pressure, despite improvements in Venmo and Braintree and the increase in FY2026 guidance.

HoldAnalyst target: $56.87(+6.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove PayPal's results in Q2 FY2026?

Revenue reached $8.68 billion, growing 5% year over year, and total payment volume reached $486 billion, growing 9% on a currency-neutral basis. Venmo volume grew 14%, payment processing services growth accelerated to 13%, while PayPal-branded online payments remained at 2%. Non-GAAP earnings per share reached $1.38, exceeding the company's guidance despite declining 1% year over year.

Has PayPal's core payments business returned to strong growth?

PayPal-branded online payments showed stability but have not yet returned to strong growth, as volume increased just 2% on a currency-neutral basis in Q2 FY2026 for the second consecutive quarter. The company raised its FY2026 growth forecast for this business to the low-single-digit range and expects growth of approximately 2% in Q3 FY2026. In contrast, branded experiences that include online payments, PayPal and Venmo cards, and tap-to-pay grew 6%, driven partly by growth of more than 60% in debit card spending and tap-to-pay.

Why is Venmo important to PayPal's growth thesis?

Venmo payment volume grew 14% in Q2 FY2026, marking a seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Monthly active accounts for the Venmo debit card increased by more than 50%, while average revenue per account among users of both the debit card and Pay with Venmo was more than nine times higher than among users of peer-to-peer transfers only. Pay with Venmo also grew 44%, and the company is working to transform the app from a peer-to-peer transfer tool into a broader platform for sending, spending, and borrowing.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −Core PayPal-branded online payment growth remains weak; branded online payment volume growth remained at just 2% on a currency-neutral basis for two consecutive quarters, and the company expects approximately the same rate in Q3 FY2026. Management also acknowledged intensifying competition, particularly in Europe, and that the holiday season in Q4 will be competitive.
  • −Profitability and margins came under pressure in Q2 FY2026; the transaction take rate declined seven basis points to 1.61%, non-GAAP operating income fell 8% to $1.5 billion, and adjusted earnings per share declined 1% to $1.38. The pressure came from marketing engagement investments, the mix shift toward Braintree, and higher non-transaction-related operating expenses.
  • −Q3 FY2026 guidance remains more conservative than the full-year picture; PayPal expects low-single-digit growth in currency-neutral revenue, only modest growth in transaction margin dollars, a high-single-digit increase in non-transaction-related operating expenses, and a low-single-digit decline in adjusted earnings per share.
  • −Growth acceleration depends on a multi-year transformation that is not yet complete; the company expects continued strengthening of the fundamentals during FY2027, greater momentum in the second half of FY2027 and throughout FY2028, and then a more meaningful contribution from agentic payments and digital identity starting in FY2028 and beyond. This long horizon increases execution risk, particularly because the company intends to reinvest a significant portion of its targeted savings rather than converting them fully into near-term earnings.
  • −The acquisition news is uncertain; management declined on July 28, 2026 to confirm any specific discussions, despite August 2026 reports of talks with Stripe and Advent International. Failure to reach a deal, or terms that differ from market expectations, could eliminate a catalyst based on speculation rather than an announced agreement.
  • −Insider activity during the three months ended August 18, 2026 recorded nine sales versus one purchase, with net sales of approximately 667.7 thousand according to the data provided. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and without details of the plans or transaction motives, it is insufficient to assess the business outlook.
What is the impact of Braintree and financial services on PayPal's mix?

Braintree grew at a mid-teens rate and delivered profitable growth for nine consecutive quarters through Q2 FY2026. Payment processing services volume growth accelerated to 13%, supported by merchant retention and increased adoption of services such as Payouts, Risk as a Service, and payment optimization. Financial services, including credit and buy now, pay later, represented approximately 20% of the company's transaction margin and were growing at a double-digit rate, with their revenue expected to grow at least twice as fast as the overall company during FY2026.

What does PayPal's FY2026 guidance include?

The company expects approximately $15.6 billion in transaction margin dollars, or $14.5 billion excluding interest on customer balances. It is also targeting non-GAAP earnings per share of $5.38, adjusted free cash flow of at least $6 billion, and share repurchases of approximately $6 billion. In Q3 FY2026, it expects low-single-digit growth in currency-neutral revenue, with a low-single-digit decline in adjusted earnings per share.

What is the truth behind the reports of Stripe and Advent acquiring PayPal?

Reports on August 14 and 15, 2026 stated that Stripe and Advent International were in talks to acquire PayPal. The news reports said that PayPal rejected an initial offer from Stripe of $60.50 per share in July 2026 because it was insufficient. On the July 28, 2026 earnings call, management declined to comment on the details of the speculation, emphasizing that its focus was on executing the transformation plan while evaluating any opportunity that could deliver greater value to shareholders.