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Phoenix Education Partners, Inc
PXED

PXED Phoenix Education Partners, Inc

Phoenix Education Partners, Inc · NYSE
Market Closed
26.84
▲ ⁦+0.19%⁩ (+0.05)
Market Cap$965.7M
Beta-0.56
52w Low52w High
23.5247.08
Last Week
⁦-10.53%⁩
Last Month
⁦-6.90%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-12.72%⁩
Last Year
—
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall94
Excellent — top fifth of the marketContrarianF 4/8SafeBetter than 94% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
92
12.3x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
30
1.0%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
92
17.0%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
85
—2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
82
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
31
—2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
72
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$27
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$38
⁦+42%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$36–$40⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$86
⁦+220%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods broadly agree — estimate range ⁦$38–$86⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$38.00
⁦+41.6%⁩
Current Price $26.84·Median $38.00
Low
$36.00
High
$40.00
Current price
$26.84
Average target
$38.00
Street summary

PXED Target Price Revision Analysis

Phoenix Education Partners stock has seen a 10.59% decline in its average target price over the past 30 days, with the consensus falling from $42.5 to $38 despite the number of analysts remaining constant. This downward adjustment reflects a reassessment of the expected price range, with current dispersion ranging between a low of $36 and a high of $40, indicating a convergence in the opinions of the three analysts regarding the stock's fair value.

As of 2026-07-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
71%
High
Target dispersion
15%
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
2
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-15
    Morgan Stanley
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-01-14
    BMO Capital
    —· $39.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.31x
    4.61x36.85x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    5.46x
    3.86x30.86x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    6.80x
    2.86x22.90x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    14.8%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    1.0%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -49.7%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    55.3%
    9.2%67.5%
    Strong
  • ROIC
    17.0%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    —
    —
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.79
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-14 data

Company Overview

Phoenix Education Partners operates University of Phoenix and focuses on flexible, affordable educational programs for working adults, with curricula linked to professionally relevant skills. The business relies on student enrollment in degree programs, either directly or through employer relationships; in fiscal Q3 2026, about 36% of enrollment came through employers, compared with 33% a year earlier. The number of digital skills badges earned by students also exceeded 1.1 million, while a Harris Poll study reported that 98% of surveyed employers were satisfied overall with University of Phoenix graduates.

In fiscal Q3 2026, revenue was $271.8 million, compared with $271.7 million in the comparable period, and average total degree-program enrollment increased 0.6% to approximately 85,300 students. Net income attributable to Phoenix Education Partners was approximately $39.2 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, compared with $53.8 million and $1.42 per share a year earlier; accordingly, the calculated net income margin declined to approximately 14.4% from 19.8%. The data did not include a gross profit figure, but adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $78.1 million at a 28.7% margin, compared with $83.4 million and a 30.7% margin in the comparable period.

During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, revenue increased 0.9% to $756.3 million, and average enrollment rose 2.2% to approximately 84,500 students. The program mix remained heavily concentrated in business, with management reporting that the distribution stayed close to the mix cited at the initial public offering, when business represented 63%, healthcare and related fields 31%, and education 4%, with stronger growth in healthcare programs. In terms of channels, the company has more than 2,500 employer relationships, and management reports that students in this channel achieve higher retention and completion rates despite discounts that slightly reduce revenue per student.

What's Driving the Stock

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

The company raised and narrowed its fiscal 2026 adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance to a range of $246–250 million, alongside cost discipline and the use of technology and artificial intelligence capabilities; however, revenue guidance was revised to $1.020–1.025 billion due to the shift in digital enrollment strategies.
  • The contribution of employer-supported enrollment increased to 36% in fiscal Q3 2026 from 33% a year earlier, and University of Phoenix manages more than 2,500 employer relationships. Management believes that investment in account management and strategic relationships, including the collaboration with Wabash, supports continued growth in this channel.
  • On July 14, 2026, the company announced a collaboration with OpenAI to develop artificial intelligence-enabled learning and joint research and to make ChatGPT available to eligible students. University of Phoenix offers artificial intelligence skill-building modules in every course, a Socratic dialogue tool that simulates professional situations, and around-the-clock automated writing and mathematics support.
  • Strong student retention supported an increase in average degree-program enrollment to approximately 85,300 students in fiscal Q3 2026, while lower bad debt expense helped offset part of the increase in advertising spending. The company intends to launch one of its first three-year bachelor’s degree pathways in fall 2026 within the College of Social and Behavioral Sciences and Criminal Justice Administration.
  • As of May 31, 2026, the company held $269.4 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, compared with $194.8 million as of August 31, 2025, with no outstanding debt. After repurchasing approximately 135 thousand shares for $4 million in fiscal Q3 2026, $46 million remained available under the $50 million repurchase program, alongside a declared quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Balance-sheet strength provides substantial capacity for investment and capital returns; the company generated $116.7 million in operating cash flow during the first nine months of fiscal 2026 and held $269.4 million in liquidity as of May 31, 2026, with no outstanding debt.
    • +Retention indicators and the employer channel support the resilience of the enrollment base; average enrollment increased 0.6% to approximately 85,300 students in fiscal Q3 2026, and the share of employer-supported enrollment rose to 36% from 33%. Management also indicates that students in this channel are retained and complete their studies at higher rates, making its profitability close to that of the direct channel despite tuition discounts.
    • +Artificial intelligence integration could expand educational value and operational efficiency simultaneously; the company added artificial intelligence skills modules to every course and launched the One Team assistant to summarize student status and recommend the next step to advisors. The OpenAI collaboration announced on July 14, 2026, adds tools and expertise for curriculum development, skills pathways, and improved student support processes.
    • +Despite weaker net income, adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased 1.2% during the first nine months of fiscal 2026 to $188.1 million, and the margin improved to 24.9% from 24.8%. Raising the fiscal 2026 guidance range to $246–250 million reflects management’s ability to protect adjusted profitability through cost discipline.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Changes in search and discovery behavior driven by artificial intelligence pose a direct risk to new student acquisition; management described the selection journey as longer and more iterative and lowered fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $1.020–1.025 billion due to the transitional impact of digital enrollment strategies. Management is still unable to determine how long it will take for artificial intelligence-enabled search channels to deliver results comparable to traditional search.
    • −Fiscal Q3 2026 profitability deteriorated despite nearly flat revenue; net income declined to $39.2 million from $53.8 million, and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization fell 6.4% to $78.1 million. Its adjusted margin dropped to 28.7% from 30.7%, affected by a $6.6 million increase in advertising spending and initial public offering-related stock-based compensation expense.
    • −Underlying growth is slow; fiscal Q3 2026 revenue increased by only $0.1 million year over year, and average enrollment rose only 0.6%. During the first nine months of fiscal 2026, revenue growth did not exceed 0.9%, while net income declined to $65.4 million from $116.4 million, placing a substantial burden on enrollment improvement and efficiency in subsequent periods.
    • −There is notable program concentration; business programs represented 63% of enrollment in the mix cited at the initial public offering, and management said on the fiscal Q3 2026 call that the distribution remains close to that level. This concentration makes results more sensitive to any change in demand or competition within business education, even as healthcare programs grow at a stronger pace.
    • −The company remains exposed to federal regulation and student funding; the call discussed new verification controls in the FAFSA system and the 90/10 rule, under which the company’s measure was approximately 88%. The review of 2026 and 2027 applications, which included more than 70 thousand applications, caused temporary enrollment friction, and any subsequent change to the controls or the 90/10 rule could affect the student admissions process.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average target of $38 and a target range of $36 to $40; the average is approximately 19% below the 52-week high of $47.08 and approximately 62% above the low of $23.52. The data does not provide a valid price-to-earnings multiple for comparison, so the stock’s valuation depends on the company’s ability to achieve its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $1.020–1.025 billion and adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization guidance of $246–250 million. Strong liquidity and the absence of debt support the positive consensus, but the wide target range and the decline in the fiscal Q3 2026 margin reflect the risks from the digital search transition and weak near-term growth.

    BuyAnalyst target: $38(+41.6%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-02; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    How did PXED perform in fiscal Q3 2026?

    Revenue was $271.8 million, compared with $271.7 million in the comparable period, and average total degree-program enrollment increased 0.6% to approximately 85,300 students. Net income declined to $39.2 million, or $1.01 per diluted share, from $53.8 million and $1.42 per share. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization also fell 6.4% to $78.1 million, and the margin declined to 28.7% from 30.7%.

    Why did Phoenix Education Partners lower its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance?

    The company revised its revenue guidance to a range of $1.020–1.025 billion due to the transitional impact of changes in how students discover and evaluate universities through artificial intelligence-enabled search. Management said on July 14, 2026, that demand for the brand had not weakened, but it observed longer evaluation journeys and more repeated visits before applications were started. In response, it accelerated the launch of the Built for Real Life campaign and increased advertising spending in fiscal Q3 2026 by $6.6 million year over year.

    How important is the employer channel to University of Phoenix’s growth?

    Employer-supported enrollment represented approximately 36% of total enrollment in fiscal Q3 2026, up from 33% a year earlier. The university has more than 2,500 employer relationships, and healthcare institutions represent slightly less than one-third of its corporate relationship network. Management says that students in this channel achieve higher retention and completion rates, making profitability close to that of the direct channel despite lower revenue per student due to tuition assistance discounts.

    How does Phoenix Education Partners use artificial intelligence in education and operations?

    University of Phoenix offers artificial intelligence skill-building modules in every course, is expanding a Socratic dialogue tool that simulates professional situations, and provides an automated agent for around-the-clock writing and mathematics support. On July 14, 2026, it announced a collaboration with OpenAI to develop curricula, research, and skills pathways and to make ChatGPT available to eligible students. On the operational side, it launched the One Team assistant, which summarizes student status and recommends next steps to student advisors with the aim of improving service and reducing time and cost.

    Does PXED have a strong balance sheet and return capital to shareholders?

    Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities totaled $269.4 million as of May 31, 2026, and the company had no outstanding debt. Operating activities generated $116.7 million during the first nine months of fiscal 2026, compared with $17.4 million paid in cash dividends and dividend equivalents and $15 million in capital expenditures. In fiscal Q3 2026, the company repurchased approximately 135 thousand shares for $4 million, with $46 million remaining under the authorization, and it also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.21 per share payable on August 14, 2026.

    What are the main regulatory risks facing University of Phoenix?

    The enrollment process is subject to Department of Education controls and the FAFSA system, and the Department reviewed more than 70 thousand of the university’s 2026 and 2027 applications. New risk flags and mandatory verification procedures caused temporary enrollment friction, although management said the cases identified by the Department were consistent with its internal controls. The company’s measure under the 90/10 rule was also approximately 88%, so any future changes to this rule or verification requirements could affect the student admissions and funding process.

  • −Valuation carries risk due to the wide historical trading range and the absence of a reported price-to-earnings multiple in the data; the 52-week range extends from $23.52 to $47.08, while analyst targets range from $36 to $40. The average target of $38 is approximately 19% below the top of the annual range, while the company faces slowing revenue, declining net income, and margin pressure.