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Stocks
Phillips 66
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall94
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9SafeBetter than 94% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
82
14.8x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
60
14.4%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
62
16.8%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
74
1.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
51
1.90%▼2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
99
65.5%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
53
11▲3Around median
PSX

PSX Phillips 66

Phillips 66 · NYSE
Market Closed
259.47
▲ ⁦+0.37%⁩ (+0.96)
Market Cap$103.6B
Beta0.70
52w Low52w High
126.74265.43
Last Week
⁦+1.32%⁩
Last Month
⁦+15.65%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+42.79%⁩
Last Year
⁦+96.14%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$259
Analyst target · 1 analysts
$235
⁦-9%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$196–$335⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$273
⁦+5%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦3⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$235–$273⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 1 analysts setting price target
$244.44
⁦-5.8%⁩
Current Price $259.47·Median $235.00
Low
$196.00
High
$335.00
Current price
$259.47
Average target
$244.44
Street summary

Target Price Rises While Ratings Remain Unchanged

The consensus target price rose to 244.44, an increase of 7.22 or 3.04% over 7 days, and 24 or 10.89% over 30 days. Nevertheless, the number of analysts remained at one, limiting the significance of the increase and indicating that the change does not reflect a broader estimate base. The current price of 258.51 exceeds the current consensus.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+10.9%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.60
Buy
Analyst coverage
20
Buy conviction
60%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
54%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time20 analysts rating
3
9
6
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.57 → 3.60
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-08
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    Piper Sandler
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-01
    Wells Fargo
    Overweight
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    14.75x
    3.56x28.47x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    13.63x
    3.36x26.89x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    8.13x
    2.12x16.98x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.2%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    14.4%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    322.4%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    13.1%
    7.8%72.1%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    16.8%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.21x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    1.9%
    0.4%10.1%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    28.0%
    11.9%109.0%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.25
    -1.814.34
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Phillips 66 operates through an integrated North American energy system that converts low-cost hydrocarbons from the United States, Canada, and Latin America into higher-value products. The company combines transportation, processing, retail, and exports in Midstream, fuel refining, product marketing and specialties, renewable fuel production, and its interest in the CPChem chemicals business; Midstream and marketing and specialties provide more stable cash flows, while refining, chemicals, and renewable fuels offer greater exposure to commodity margins and regulatory credits.

In Q2 FY2026, revenue was $51.0 billion, gross profit was $7.3 billion, net income was $3.8 billion, and reported EPS was $9.55. These figures equate to a gross margin of approximately 14.3% and a net margin of approximately 7.5%, compared with revenue of $32.5 billion, net income of $207 million, and EPS of $0.51 in Q1 FY2026. Adjusted earnings were $3.8 billion and adjusted EPS was $9.41 in Q2 FY2026, with approximately $450 million of positive mark-to-market effects distributed primarily across refining, marketing and specialties, and renewable fuels.

The Q2 FY2026 earnings mix was supported by higher Midstream margins and volumes, increased polyethylene margins in Chemicals, wider realized refining margins, improved global marketing margins, and higher regulatory credit prices and renewable fuel production. The business generated $4.3 billion of operating cash flow before working capital changes, compared with capital expenditures of $726 million, and the company returned $887 million to shareholders through $379 million of share repurchases and $508 million of dividends.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The refining margin was $24.08 per barrel and refinery utilization reached 96% in Q2 FY2026, while the company captured 98% of the market indicator and increased distillate production by approximately 35 thousand barrels per day; management expects the margin environment to remain strong through 2027 due to refinery capacity disruptions and low product inventories.
  • Midstream fractionation capacity exceeded one million barrels per day with average utilization above 100%, and the company recorded record liquefied petroleum gas export volumes in Q2 FY2026. Management is targeting a Midstream EBITDA run rate of $4.5 billion by the end of FY2027, supported by the Iron Mesa projects and the Coastal Bend expansion.
  • Phillips 66 is proceeding with Kinder Morgan and HF Sinclair on the Western Gateway project, estimated at approximately $5 billion, which aims to transport reliable fuel from the central United States to the western United States in the latter part of 2029. The project adds a long-term growth avenue to the Midstream portfolio, but remains contingent on finalizing documentation and the execution scope, as management explained on the August 5, 2026 call.
  • On July 31, 2026, the board approved a $10 billion increase in the share repurchase authorization. The company intends to increase repurchases in the second half of FY2026 while continuing to return more than 50% of operating cash flow, excluding working capital, to shareholders through dividends and repurchases.
  • Net debt declined to $16.5 billion at the end of Q2 FY2026, and management expects it to fall below $16 billion by the end of FY2026. After repaying $1 billion of the March 2027 term loan during the quarter and paying the remaining $1.25 billion balance in July 2026, management set a subsequent net debt range of $13.5 billion to $14 billion.
  • Reports dated August 14, 2026 stated that Phillips 66 and Marathon Petroleum held talks regarding a potential acquisition, without disclosing specific terms. These reports represent only a potential trading catalyst, as the available information does not establish that an agreement was signed or a transaction completed.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The jump in net income from $207 million in Q1 FY2026 to $3.8 billion in Q2 FY2026 demonstrates the integrated refining and trading system's ability to capture wider market margins, with refinery utilization of 96% and a capture rate of 98%.
  • +Midstream provides a more stable earnings base, with fractionation utilization above 100%, record liquefied petroleum gas export volumes, and a target of $4.5 billion in EBITDA by the end of FY2027. Iron Mesa, Coastal Bend, and Western Gateway also expand the company's transportation, processing, and export network.
  • +Operating cash flow of $4.3 billion before working capital in Q2 FY2026 supports a combination of debt reduction and capital returns. The company returned $887 million to shareholders during the quarter, then received a $10 billion increase in its share repurchase authorization on July 31, 2026.
  • +The company is targeting a reduction in annual refining operating costs, excluding turnaround work, to $5.50 per barrel in FY2027, after recording $5.57 in Q2 FY2026. Refining teams are working on more than 200 expense-reduction initiatives, alongside projects to increase jet fuel production at Ferndale and improve low-sulfur gasoline production at Humber.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The analyst consensus rates PSX shares a “Buy,” with an average target of $220.44 and a target range of $196 to $239. The average target is approximately 10.7% below the 52-week range high of $246.95, and even the highest target is below that high, reflecting valuation risk if exceptional refining margins return to normal levels. The available information does not provide a published P/E ratio, so the valuation assessment is based on the 52-week range of $126.74–$246.95 and the dispersion of analyst targets, rather than on an unavailable earnings multiple.

BuyAnalyst target: $220.44(-15.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove PSX's earnings in Q2 FY2026?

Net income was $3.8 billion and reported EPS was $9.55, while adjusted EPS was $9.41. Results benefited from a refining margin of $24.08 per barrel, refinery utilization of 96%, and capture of 98% of the market indicator. Results in Midstream, Chemicals, marketing, and renewable fuels also improved, but earnings included approximately $450 million of positive mark-to-market effects.

How does Phillips 66 return capital to PSX shareholders?

The company returned $887 million to shareholders in Q2 FY2026, including $379 million for share repurchases and $508 million for dividends. Management is committed to returning more than 50% of operating cash flow, excluding working capital, through dividends and repurchases. On July 31, 2026, the board approved a $10 billion increase in the share repurchase authorization, with the pace of repurchases expected to increase in the second half of FY2026.

How important is the Western Gateway project to PSX shares?

Western Gateway is a joint pipeline project among Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan, and HF Sinclair with an estimated cost of approximately $5 billion. The project aims to transport fuel supplies from the central United States to western markets in the latter part of 2029, enhancing transportation flexibility and market access. On the August 5, 2026 call, management said it was finalizing the documentation, project scope, and execution plan, so its future contribution depends on completing these stages and executing according to plan.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Strong refining earnings depend on an environment of elevated commodity margins; the refining margin was $24.08 per barrel in Q2 FY2026, while the company's results included approximately $450 million of mark-to-market gains. Any normalization in refining spreads or reversal of these effects could make Q2 FY2026 profitability unsustainable at the same level.
  • −Chemicals faces substantial oversupply, and management expects margins to decline from a temporarily above-mid-cycle level to approximately $0.14–$0.15 per pound. The company also expects global olefins and polyolefins utilization to be in the low-90% range during Q3 FY2026, limiting the strength of the recovery compared with the prior quarter's peak.
  • −The renewable fuels business carries clear regulatory risks because RINs remain an important profitability driver and the rules for generating credits from foreign feedstocks could change after the end of 2027. Q2 FY2026 earnings also included a nonrecurring benefit of $100 million primarily related to a tariff refund, in addition to a pre-tax mark-to-market gain of approximately $47 million.
  • −An increase in Chinese petroleum product exports could ease the global supply shortage and pressure refining margins; China's exports declined from approximately 800 thousand to 400 thousand barrels per day, but management acknowledged that they could rise again. This risk is important because Phillips 66's margin outlook assumes continued Chinese export discipline and significant global refinery capacity disruptions.
  • −The expansion plan entails substantial execution and capital commitments, most notably the Western Gateway project, estimated at approximately $5 billion and targeted to begin operations in the latter part of 2029. The company also expects turnaround expenses of between $100 million and $120 million and Corporate and Other costs of between $325 million and $350 million in Q3 FY2026.
  • −Insider activity registered a strong_sell signal, with net sales of $13.3 million during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 12, 2026, with zero purchases and eight sales. This remains a secondary signal because insider sales may have been prearranged, and the available information does not disclose the motives for those transactions.
Can Phillips 66 reduce its debt while continuing to repurchase shares?

The company ended Q2 FY2026 with total debt of $20.6 billion and net debt of $16.5 billion, with committed liquidity of $10.5 billion. Management expects net debt to decline below $16 billion by the end of FY2026, and then views a subsequent range of $13.5 billion to $14 billion as appropriate. This is supported by operating cash flow before working capital of $4.3 billion during the quarter, while returning more than 50% of it to shareholders remains a stated priority.

What are the main renewable fuels risks for Phillips 66?

The company operated the Rodeo complex at 106% of its nameplate capacity in Q2 FY2026, and profitability benefited from higher RINs prices and diesel margins. However, segment results included a nonrecurring benefit of $100 million primarily related to a tariff refund, in addition to a pre-tax mark-to-market gain of approximately $47 million. Management also warned of regulatory policy risks, including the possibility that RINs generation associated with foreign feedstocks could be cut in half after the end of 2027.

What are Phillips 66's operational targets for FY2027?

The company is targeting a Midstream EBITDA run rate of $4.5 billion by the end of FY2027. It is also targeting annual refining operating costs, excluding turnaround work, of $5.50 per barrel, compared with $5.57 in Q2 FY2026. Midstream growth depends on Iron Mesa and the Coastal Bend expansion, while Chemicals growth is based on two world-scale crackers expected to contribute in FY2027.