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Stocks
Philip Morris International Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall84
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 8/9SafeBetter than 84% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
32
27.5x▼17.8xBottom tier
▸
Growth
66
8.9%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
91
36.3%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
57
2.2x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
52
3.08%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
78
13.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
76
8▲3Top tier
PM

PM Philip Morris International Inc.

Philip Morris International Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
191.06
▲ ⁦+0.68%⁩ (+1.29)
Market Cap$297.8B
Beta0.40
52w Low52w High
142.11207.76
Last Week
⁦+2.63%⁩
Last Month
⁦+2.62%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+5.69%⁩
Last Year
⁦+15.58%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$191
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$215
⁦+13%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$182–$225⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$122
⁦-36%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$122–$215⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$210.50
⁦+10.2%⁩
Current Price $191.06·Median $215.00
Low
$182.00
High
$225.00
Current price
$191.06
Average target
$210.50
Street summary

Targets Hold Steady with Clear Divergence Among Analysts

Consensus estimates for the price target remained unchanged over the last day, 7 days, and 30 days, staying at 210.5, with the number of analysts also holding steady at 5. Compared with the current price of 185.71, the consensus implies potential upside of around 13.3%, but the target range is wide, between 182 and 225; the low target is slightly below the current price, while the high target is approximately 21.1% higher, indicating a notable divergence in outlook rather than a new collective shift.

As of 2026-09-09
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
16
Buy conviction
75%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 1↓
Target dispersion
23%
Analyst ratings over time16 analysts rating
4
8
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.06 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-02
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Barclays
    Overweight
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    BTIG
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    27.45x
    4.61x36.85x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    21.83x
    3.86x30.86x
    Above average
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.78x
    2.86x22.90x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    4.3%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    8.9%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    32.1%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    67.5%
    9.2%67.5%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    36.3%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.16x
    0.61x4.86x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.1%
    0.9%8.3%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    82.8%
    15.9%176.6%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.51
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

Philip Morris International manages a global portfolio of tobacco and nicotine products that combines traditional cigarettes with smoke-free products. Its main growth drivers include IQOS and heated tobacco products, ZYN nicotine pouches, VEEV vaping products, and Marlboro cigarettes; revenue benefits from sales volumes, price increases, and an improved product mix as smoke-free alternatives grow. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, the international business represented 93% of the group’s net revenue, while international smoke-free products delivered organic growth of 13.7% in revenue and 16.9% in gross profit, with a gross margin of 70%.

In fiscal year 2026 Q2, the company reported revenue of $11.2 billion, gross profit of $7.7 billion, net income of $2.8 billion, and earnings per share of $1.80, according to EDGAR data. These figures equate to a gross margin of approximately 68.8% and a net income margin of 25%, while revenue grew organically by 7.6% and exceeded $11 billion for the first time in a single quarter. On an adjusted basis, operating income reached $4.8 billion, and diluted earnings per share increased 15% to $2.20.

The performance mix was supported by 7.5% growth in smoke-free product shipments in fiscal year 2026 Q2, a 55% increase in vaping shipments, and 1.1% growth in cigarette shipments. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, gross profit from international smoke-free products grew 16.9% organically, while gross profit from international cigarettes increased 6.1%, demonstrating that profitability relied on growth in modern alternatives alongside strong pricing in traditional cigarettes.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The company raised its fiscal year 2026 cigarette volume outlook to a decline of between 2% and 3%, instead of approximately 3%, following shipment growth of 1.1% in fiscal year 2026 Q2. It also expects total shipments to be stable or grow slightly, with high-single-digit growth in smoke-free products offsetting most of the contraction in cigarettes.
  • IQOS remains a key growth driver; its adjusted in-market sales grew 5.1% in fiscal year 2026 Q2, or 10.2% excluding Japan and Poland, and the company maintained a global share of approximately 76% of the heated tobacco category in the first half of fiscal year 2026. Italy, Greece, Romania, Taiwan, and global travel supported this performance, alongside the launch of BONDS by IQOS in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Morocco during the quarter.
  • VEEV’s expansion adds a rapid growth driver; its shipments increased 55% in fiscal year 2026 Q2 and 72% in the first half, with notable performance in Romania, Greece, and Germany. The company reported that VEEV became the leading brand in Europe within closed systems, supported by the phased rollout of the VEEV One Plus device.
  • In the United States, ZYN shipments increased 2% to 2.9 billion pouches in fiscal year 2026 Q2, and its share of retail value reached approximately 57%. The company launched ZYN Ultra in 9 and 11 milligram strengths and designated fiscal year 2026 Q3 for the addition of dry formulations in 1.5 and 8 milligram strengths, while planned investment in the Colorado complex doubled to $1.2 billion by 2028 to increase production capacity.
  • Management is targeting organic revenue growth of between 5% and 7%, organic operating income growth of between 7% and 9%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share of between $8.26 and $8.41 in fiscal year 2026. The plan is supported by cost savings exceeding $300 million in the first half of fiscal year 2026, bringing cumulative savings to more than $1.8 billion of the $2 billion target for 2024–2026.
  • On August 25, 2026, Philip Morris International signed a contract manufacturing agreement for traditional cigarettes with Altria subsidiary Philip Morris USA. The agreement aims to leverage existing production scale and spread fixed costs across greater output, potentially improving the efficiency of traditional assets alongside investment in ZYN and smoke-free products.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The company’s model combines growth in smoke-free products with the profit-generating capacity of cigarettes; net revenue from international smoke-free products grew 13.7% organically in the first half of fiscal year 2026, alongside 6.1% growth in gross profit from international cigarettes. This mix enabled the group’s adjusted operating margin to increase organically by 40 basis points to approximately 42%.
  • +The smoke-free platform has strong, clearly quantified positions: IQOS holds approximately 76% of the global heated tobacco market, ZYN accounts for approximately 57% of the retail value of U.S. nicotine pouches, and VEEV has become the leading brand in Europe within closed systems. This diversification across heated tobacco, pouches, and vaping reduces reliance on a single modern product.
  • +Cash flow provides capacity to fund expansion; the company expects operating cash flow of approximately $13.5 billion in fiscal year 2026 while continuing to invest in smoke-free products and maintain a progressive dividend policy. Cumulative savings exceeding $1.8 billion also place the company close to its $2 billion target for 2024–2026.
  • +Expanding ZYN strengthens the company’s ability to address gaps in its U.S. product range through ZYN Ultra, the 1.5 and 8 milligram formulations, and the When it Clicks campaign. In addition, 20 ZYN products received modified-risk tobacco product authorization, giving the brand explicit regulatory differentiation within the nicotine pouch category.

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $210.5 and a wide range between $182 and $225; the average is approximately 1.3% above the high of the 52-week range at $207.76, while the low of the range is $142.11. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the stock’s valuation here depends on the company’s ability to achieve expected adjusted earnings per share of between $8.26 and $8.41 in fiscal year 2026, weighed against the risks of higher U.S. investment and slowing IQOS performance in Japan and some European markets.

BuyAnalyst target: $210.5(+10.2%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-25; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were PM’s most important results in fiscal year 2026 Q2?

Revenue reached $11.2 billion, gross profit was $7.7 billion, and net income was $2.8 billion, according to EDGAR data. Earnings per share were $1.80, while adjusted diluted earnings per share reached $2.20, an increase of 15%. Net revenue grew organically by 7.6%, and adjusted operating income increased organically by approximately 11% to $4.8 billion.

Is IQOS still the main growth driver for Philip Morris International?

Yes, adjusted in-market IQOS sales grew 5.1% in fiscal year 2026 Q2, and growth reached 10.2% when Japan and Poland were excluded. The company maintained a share of approximately 76% of the global heated tobacco market in the first half of fiscal year 2026. Support came from markets such as Italy, Greece, Romania, and Taiwan, alongside the expansion of BONDS by IQOS in Poland, the Czech Republic, and Morocco.

What is happening with the ZYN brand in the United States?

ZYN shipments increased 2% to 2.9 billion pouches in fiscal year 2026 Q2, while retail offtake volumes remained stable to slightly higher. The brand’s share of retail value reached approximately 57%, but the company noted gaps in higher strengths, moist products, and certain flavors. It began addressing this by launching ZYN Ultra in 9 and 11 milligram strengths, with dry formulations in 1.5 and 8 milligram strengths scheduled for fiscal year 2026 Q3.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −Philip Morris International is heavily dependent on international markets, which accounted for 93% of the group’s net revenue in the first half of fiscal year 2026. This increases the sensitivity of results to market mix, currencies, and local taxes; the geographic mix of cigarettes and other factors reduced organic revenue growth by 2 points in the first half.
  • −ZYN faces increasing competition in the U.S. market, where retail offtake volumes were only stable to slightly higher, and its revenue remained nearly flat year over year in fiscal year 2026 Q2. Management acknowledged competitive gaps in higher-strength and moist products and certain flavors, as well as a high price premium, despite retail value share remaining near 57%.
  • −Regulatory restrictions and taxes place direct pressure on IQOS; flavor bans in Poland and Hungary reduced European growth, while the tax increase in Japan on April 1, 2026, caused adjusted in-market IQOS sales to decline 3.4% in fiscal year 2026 Q2. Management expects additional volatility around the tax change scheduled for October 2026, while the launch of IQOS ILUMA in the United States remains subject to a U.S. Food and Drug Administration process.
  • −Accelerated U.S. investment will result in selling, general, and administrative expenses in the second half of fiscal year 2026 exceeding previous estimates. Despite the strong first half, management kept its core growth guidance unchanged and expects mid-single-digit organic revenue growth and only modest margin expansion in fiscal year 2026 Q3.
  • −Some growth drivers are showing deceleration or facing tougher comparisons; growth in adjusted in-market IQOS sales slowed to 5.1% in fiscal year 2026 Q2, compared with growth exceeding 10% when Japan and Poland are excluded. The company also expects approximately 41 billion units of heated tobacco shipments in fiscal year 2026 Q3 against a difficult comparison with growth of 15.5% in fiscal year 2025 Q3, while the ZYN comparison is affected by one-time promotional activity of approximately 250 million pouches in September 2025.
  • −The valuation entails high execution risk because the average analyst target of $210.5 exceeds the high recorded within the 52-week range, at $207.76, by only approximately 1.3%. With no published price-to-earnings ratio available in the data, justifying the upper end of the target range, up to $225, depends on achieving smoke-free product growth while absorbing U.S. spending and regulatory pressures.
What is Philip Morris International’s guidance for fiscal year 2026?

The company is targeting organic revenue growth of between 5% and 7% and organic operating income growth of between 7% and 9%. It expects currency-neutral growth in adjusted diluted earnings per share of between 7.5% and 9.5%, with a dollar range of between $8.26 and $8.41. It also expects operating cash flow of approximately $13.5 billion and total shipments to be stable or grow slightly during fiscal year 2026.

What are the main risks facing PM during the second half of fiscal year 2026?

The company plans to increase investment in the United States to support ZYN and prepare for the launch of IQOS ILUMA, which is subject to a U.S. Food and Drug Administration process, increasing selling, general, and administrative expenses. In Japan, the tax increase on April 1, 2026, caused adjusted in-market IQOS sales to decline 3.4% in fiscal year 2026 Q2, with additional volatility expected around the October 2026 change. Flavor restrictions in Poland and Hungary also had an impact, while ZYN faces competition in higher-strength and moist products and certain flavors.

How is PM’s smoke-free product strategy progressing?

Smoke-free product shipments grew 7.5% in fiscal year 2026 Q2, while VEEV shipments increased 55%. In the first half of fiscal year 2026, net revenue from international smoke-free products grew 13.7% organically and their gross profit increased 16.9%, bringing their gross margin to 70%. The company also intends to invest $1.2 billion in the ZYN complex in Colorado by 2028 to increase production capacity.