| Factor | Score | Distribution | Value | Avg | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Valuation | 44 | 31.2x | 17.3x | Around median | |
Growth | 40 | 12.0% | 7.1% | Around median | |
Quality | 59 | 9.8% | 4.5% | Around median | |
Safety | 62 | — | 2.6x | Around median | |
Capital Return | 89 | 1.97% | 0.06% | Top tier | |
Momentum | 84 | 14.1% | -1.6% | Top tier | |
Sentiment | 41 | 7 | 3 | Around median |
The floor: what the company is worth if growth stopped today
56% of today's price is what a buyer pays for growth that has not happened yet.
10-year US Treasury yield 4.96% as of 2026-10-22. Estimates computed from company data and analyst targets, not investment advice.
Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.
Packaging Corporation of America produces paper-based packaging materials, with its business concentrated in containerboard and corrugated products, alongside a smaller paper segment. In fiscal Q2 2026, the Packaging segment generated sales of $2.3 billion out of the company's total sales of $2.5 billion, making it the primary revenue source, while the Paper segment recorded sales of $157 million. Profitability depends on corrugated product shipment volumes, containerboard and box pricing, the operating efficiency of mills and converting plants, and fiber, freight, and energy costs.
In fiscal Q2 2026, net sales increased to $2.5 billion from $2.2 billion in fiscal Q2 2025. Net income was $192 million, or $2.15 per share, while adjusted net income was $210 million and adjusted earnings per share were $2.35, compared with $224 million and $2.48 per share a year earlier. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increased to $486 million from $451 million, but the $0.27-per-share decline in the existing business's earnings was not fully offset by the acquired Greif business's contribution of $0.14 per share.
The Packaging segment generated adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $489 million, but its margin declined to 21.1% from 22.6% in fiscal Q2 2025. In contrast, the Paper segment's margin increased to 24.9% from 20.8%, with adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization of $39 million. At the EDGAR level, revenue for the twelve-month period ended in fiscal 2026 was approximately $9.2 billion, and net income was $741.1 million, compared with revenue of $9.0 billion and net income of $774.1 million in fiscal 2025.
The analyst consensus on PKG stock is Neutral, with an average price target of $272.86 and a wide range between $246 and $312; the average is above the 52-week range high of $259.98, while the highest target exceeds that high more clearly. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so the breadth of the target range and the Neutral rating remain important when weighing the fiscal Q3 2026 adjusted earnings-per-share forecast of $2.91 against the decline in the Packaging segment's margin and rising freight and fiber costs.
Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.
Net sales increased to $2.5 billion from $2.2 billion in fiscal Q2 2025, with corrugated product shipments growing by more than 24% overall and 4.1% in the existing business. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization were $486 million, compared with $451 million a year earlier. The acquired Greif business contributed $0.14 per share, helping the company report adjusted earnings per share of $2.35 and exceed its guidance of $2.33.
Management expects adjusted earnings per share of $2.91 in fiscal Q3 2026. The guidance is based on continued strength in packaging demand, one additional shipping day, higher containerboard and corrugated product prices, and a lower impact from maintenance outages in the Packaging segment. In contrast, the company expects freight and recycled fiber costs to continue rising, alongside higher chemical and electricity costs and a maintenance outage at the International Falls mill.
Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.
The trend differed between the two segments; the Packaging segment's margin declined to 21.1% from 22.6% in fiscal Q2 2025. In contrast, the Paper segment's margin increased to 24.9% from 20.8%, with price and mix rising 2% year over year and quarter over quarter. At the company level, freight, labor, fiber, and depreciation costs pressured profitability, despite adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization increasing to $486 million.
The company experienced at least five power outages across its mill network during fiscal Q2 2026 and estimated lost production at approximately 10 thousand tons. Recycled OCC and DLK fiber prices also rose by approximately 70% since the beginning of fiscal 2026, with fiber and freight costs expected to continue increasing during Q3. The company is working on three gas turbine projects, but the Riverville and DeRidder units are expected to begin operating during the period from early to mid-2028 because of permitting requirements.
The company generated $376 million in operating cash flow in fiscal Q2 2026 and spent $206 million on capital expenditures, resulting in free cash flow of $170 million. During the quarter, it paid $111 million in dividends, $78 million in cash taxes, and $54 million in net interest, with no share repurchases. Management still expects capital expenditures of between $840 million and $870 million during fiscal 2026, including mill, converting, and gas turbine projects.