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Home
Stocks
PulteGroup, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall79
Strong — clearly above market medianContrarianF 4/9Better than 79% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
83
12.1x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
13
-7.3%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
57
12.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
91
0.4x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
68
0.85%▼2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
40
-5.5%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
81
11▲3Top tier
PHM

PHM PulteGroup, Inc.

PulteGroup, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
118.26
▲ ⁦+1.59%⁩ (+1.85)
Market Cap$22.5B
Beta1.21
52w Low52w High
108.49144.50
Last Week
⁦-3.96%⁩
Last Month
⁦-9.07%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-3.68%⁩
Last Year
⁦-16.38%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$118
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$150
⁦+27%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$116–$166⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$92
⁦-22%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦9.7⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$92–$150⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$145.86
⁦+23.3%⁩
Current Price $118.26·Median $150.00
Low
$116.00
High
$166.00
Current price
$118.26
Average target
$145.86
Street summary

Slight Increase in Consensus Amid a Decline in the Number of Analysts

The consensus price target rose to 145.86 from 145.14 over one day and seven days, an increase of 0.72 or 0.5%. Over 30 days, it also rose from 143 to 145.86, an increase of 2%. The current range is between 116 and 166, with a median of 150, reflecting clear variation in analysts’ estimates compared with the current price of 118.26.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.67
Buy
Analyst coverage
15
Buy conviction
60%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
42%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time15 analysts rating
2
7
5
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.69 → 3.67
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-08-24
    Wolfe Research
    Peer PerformOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-18
    Citigroup
    Market Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-24
    Citigroup
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    12.06x
    4.56x36.49x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    11.25x
    3.79x30.29x
    Cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.63x
    2.75x22.03x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    6.8%
    -30.9%16.2%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -7.3%
    -13.8%31.9%
    Below average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -26.9%
    -156.9%135.6%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    25.2%
    12.0%66.5%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    12.0%
    -23.8%21.5%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.40x
    0.65x5.48x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    0.8%
    0.1%5.9%
    Low
  • Payout Ratio
    9.9%
    8.9%99.8%
    Low
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-22 data

Company Overview

PulteGroup builds and sells homes through a portfolio serving first-time buyers, move-up buyers, and active adults, alongside financing services linked to closings. In Q2 fiscal 2026, its 7,536 new orders were distributed as 39% first-time buyers, 36% move-up buyers, and 25% active adults, with an order value of $4.1 billion. The company supports sales with lot choices and upgrades, which, together with lot premiums, averaged nearly $107 thousand for homes closed during the period, while its financial services recorded pretax income of $37 million and a mortgage capture rate of 85%.

PulteGroup generated approximately $4.0 billion in revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026, including $3.8 billion from home sales, compared with $4.3 billion in home sale revenue in the corresponding period, due to an 8% decline in closings to 6,997 homes and a 3% decrease in the average selling price to $544 thousand. The company recorded gross profit of $1.1 billion and net income of $472 million, or $2.48 per share, compared with net income of $608 million and earnings of $3.03 per share in the corresponding period. Homebuilding gross margin was 25%, up 60 basis points from Q1 fiscal 2026, while selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to 10.1% of home sale revenue from 9.1% in the corresponding period because of lower closings.

On a fiscal 2025 basis, the company recorded revenue of $17.3 billion, net income of $2.2 billion, and earnings per share of $11.12. The latest twelve-month period shown for 2026 indicates revenue of $16.4 billion, net income of $1.9 billion, and earnings per share of approximately $10.00, reflecting a decline from fiscal 2025 levels. Nevertheless, the company ended Q2 fiscal 2026 with $1.4 billion in liquidity and a debt-to-capital ratio of 12.3%, while repurchasing 3.1 million shares for $373 million during the period.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Net new orders rose 6% year over year to 7,536 homes in Q2 fiscal 2026, and their value increased 5% to $4.1 billion; the active adult segment led growth with a 12% increase, compared with 5% for first-time buyers and 4% for move-up buyers.
  • The number of active communities increased 8% to 1,074 communities, partially offsetting a 1% decline in the absorption rate to 2.3 homes per month per community. Management expects community count to grow between 3% and 5% year over year in each of the two remaining quarters of fiscal 2026.
  • Build-to-order reached 45% of orders in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with 39% during the first six months of the prior fiscal year, and the company is targeting a long-term mix of 60% build-to-order and 40% speculative homes. In parallel, speculative inventory under construction fell approximately 13% year over year to 6,638 homes, and completed speculative inventory declined to 1.3 homes per community from 1.9.
  • Florida achieved a 19% annual increase in orders during Q2 fiscal 2026, while the opening of Explore by Del Webb communities in Tampa and Columbus contributed to growth in active adult orders. Management also noted improved orders in Dallas, Houston, California, and the Pacific Northwest region, with the West remaining the weakest region.
  • The company reaffirmed its expectation to close 28,500 to 29,000 homes during fiscal 2026, with 7,000 to 7,400 closings in Q3 fiscal 2026 and an expected average selling price between $550 thousand and $560 thousand in each of Q3 and Q4. It also maintained its full-year gross margin forecast of 24.5% to 25.0% and operating cash flow of approximately $1 billion.
  • On August 25, 2026, Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $3.98 billion came in above the market estimates cited in the news report, coinciding with an upgrade to Outperform and a price target of $158.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The 6% growth in new orders to 7,536 homes, with orders rising across all three buyer segments, provides evidence that community expansion and a diversified product base are supporting sales despite weak underlying demand in the housing market.
  • +The shift to build-to-order improves the quality of the backlog and inventory management; this category represented 45% of orders, while the number of speculative homes fell from approximately 8,800 at the end of 2024 to approximately 6,600 at the end of Q2 fiscal 2026, with a construction cycle of 100 business days or less in some markets.
  • +The company maintained a strong homebuilding margin of 25% in Q2 fiscal 2026, supported by a 5% annual decline in construction costs to slightly below $75 per square foot and a 50-basis-point sequential decrease in incentives to 10.4%.
  • +Liquidity of $1.4 billion and a debt-to-capital ratio of 12.3% give the company the capacity to fund a targeted land investment of $5.4 billion in fiscal 2026 while retaining capital flexibility and repurchasing 3.1 million shares during the quarter.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $145.14, slightly above the 52-week range high of $144.50, with an overall consensus rating of Buy, while individual estimates range from $116 to $166. The August 25, 2026 upgrade to Outperform with a $158 target supports the positive outlook, but the wide target range and declines in net income and earnings per share make the valuation case sensitive to margin resilience and closing execution; the data do not present a reliable earnings multiple for comparison.

BuyAnalyst target: $145.14(+22.7%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-28; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove PHM's results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

PulteGroup generated approximately $4.0 billion in revenue and recorded net income of $472 million and earnings per share of $2.48 in Q2 fiscal 2026. New orders rose 6% to 7,536 homes valued at $4.1 billion, but home sale revenue declined to $3.8 billion because closings fell 8% and the average selling price decreased 3%. A 5% annual decline in construction costs, an improved mix of closings in Florida, and a 50-basis-point sequential decrease in incentives helped lift the homebuilding margin to 25%.

Why is PulteGroup's shift to the build-to-order model important?

Build-to-order represented 45% of orders in Q2 fiscal 2026, and the company is targeting approximately 60% compared with 40% for speculative homes. The model allows move-up and active adult buyers to select the lot, options, and upgrades, which, together with lot premiums, approached $107 thousand for homes closed during the period. At the same time, the company reduced speculative inventory under construction to 6,638 homes and completed inventory to 1.3 homes per community, benefiting from a construction cycle of 100 business days or less in some markets.

What is PulteGroup's outlook for the remainder of fiscal 2026?

The company expects to close between 7,000 and 7,400 homes in Q3 fiscal 2026 and reaffirmed its full-year range of 28,500 to 29,000 homes. It expects an average selling price between $550 thousand and $560 thousand in each of Q3 and Q4 fiscal 2026 and a full-year gross margin between 24.5% and 25.0%. It is also targeting operating cash flow of approximately $1 billion and selling, general, and administrative expenses equal to 9.5% to 9.7% of home sale revenue.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Home sale revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026 declined to $3.8 billion from $4.3 billion, closings fell 8%, and the average selling price decreased 3%, while net income dropped to $472 million from $608 million and earnings per share to $2.48 from $3.03. The latest twelve-month period also shows revenue of $16.4 billion and net income of $1.9 billion, compared with $17.3 billion and $2.2 billion, respectively, in fiscal 2025.
  • −Management described underlying demand as weak and the market as competitive, with buyer activity affected by interest-rate volatility, inflation, global tensions, and consumer confidence. Despite growth in total orders, the absorption rate declined 1% to 2.3 homes per month per community, and the West remained the slowest region to recover.
  • −The company expects a gross margin between 24.5% and 25.0% in Q3 fiscal 2026, compared with 25% in Q2, and management cautioned against moving to the upper end of the full-year range because many homes still need to be sold and incentives will remain elevated. Incentives were 10.4% during the quarter despite improving 50 basis points sequentially.
  • −Selling, general, and administrative expenses rose to 10.1% of home sale revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026, compared with 9.1% in the corresponding period, due to the loss of operating leverage as closings declined. Achieving full-year guidance of 9.5% to 9.7% requires benefiting from higher closing volumes and average selling prices in the second half of fiscal 2026.
  • −The benefit from lower lumber costs will fade during fiscal 2026, while management identified higher lumber and oil prices as a potential source of pressure on home and land development costs, including asphalt, pipes, and diesel. This could pressure margins if the company cannot offset higher costs in a market heavily focused on affordability.
  • −The wide range of analyst targets from $116 to $166 reflects meaningful variation in valuation estimates, while the data do not include a usable earnings multiple that could serve as an additional anchor. Insider activity also recorded net sales of $894,840 over the three months through the latest transaction on May 27, 2026, with no purchases and one sale transaction; however, insider sales are a weak signal on their own and may be prearranged unless the context proves otherwise.
  • Where does PulteGroup see the strongest and weakest geographic demand?

    Florida orders rose 19% year over year in Q2 fiscal 2026, and management described the performance of its operations there as strong across several periods. Midwest markets, including Columbus, Cleveland, and Chicago, recorded strong demand, along with Greenville and Coastal Carolina markets, while orders also improved in Dallas and Houston. In contrast, the West remained the slowest region to recover, despite improved orders in California and the Pacific Northwest.

    How does Explore by Del Webb contribute to PulteGroup's growth?

    The opening of Explore by Del Webb communities in Tampa and Columbus contributed to a 12% increase in active adult orders during Q2 fiscal 2026. The company had three communities open at the July 22, 2026 call, in Palm Desert in Southern California, Columbus, and Tampa, and mentioned a subsequent planned opening in Utah east of Park City without specifying a date. The product targets amenity-rich communities open to a broader group of buyers, including Gen X individuals approaching retirement, rather than being limited to communities restricted to those over 55.

    What are the main risks to PHM's margins and profitability?

    PulteGroup expects a gross margin between 24.5% and 25.0% in Q3 fiscal 2026 after recording 25% in Q2, with incentives remaining at elevated levels of 10.4%. Selling, general, and administrative expenses also rose to 10.1% of home sale revenue from 9.1% in the corresponding period because of lower closings. The end of the benefit from lower lumber costs and the potential increase in oil, asphalt, pipe, and diesel costs add risk to construction and land development costs at a time when affordability challenges limit the ease of passing these increases on to buyers.