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Home
Stocks
Performance Food Group Company
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall58
Balanced — near the middle of the marketSuper StockF 8/9SafeBetter than 58% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
66
41.0x▼17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
66
7.2%7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
54
7.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
56
3.4x▼2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
38
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
56
9.2%▲2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
36
7▲3Bottom tier
PFGC

PFGC Performance Food Group Co

Performance Food Group Co · NYSE
Market Closed
93.94
▼ ⁦-0.43%⁩ (-0.41)
Market Cap$14.8B
Beta0.91
52w Low52w High
80.82117.48
Last Week
⁦-5.25%⁩
Last Month
⁦-17.44%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+0.01%⁩
Last Year
⁦-9.45%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$94
Analyst target · 4 analysts
$130
⁦+38%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$115–$133⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$98
⁦+4%⁩
Sees it fairly priced
⁦8.4⁩% discount · ⁦5⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$98–$130⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 4 analysts setting price target
$127.33
⁦+35.5%⁩
Current Price $93.94·Median $130.00
Low
$115.00
High
$133.00
Current price
$93.94
Average target
$127.33
Street summary

Price Revision Analysis for Performance Food (PFGC)

Bullish tilt

PFGC stock has seen a tangible improvement in analyst outlook over the past thirty days, with the average price target rising by 4.37% to reach $127.33 compared to $122 in the previous month. This upward adjustment, with the number of analysts remaining constant at 4, reflects an increase in certainty regarding the stock's intrinsic value. The stock is currently trading at $105.78, a level significantly lower than even the lowest forecast ($115), indicating analyst confidence in untapped growth potential.

As of 2026-08-24
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+2.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.93
Buy
Analyst coverage
14
Buy conviction
86%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
19%
Analyst ratings over time14 analysts rating
2
10
1
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.15 → 3.93
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-17
    UBS
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-08-13
    Bernstein
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-08-13
    BMO Capital
    Outperform
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    41.02x
    4.61x36.85x
    Expensive
  • Forward P/E
    16.42x
    3.86x30.86x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    12.16x
    2.86x22.90x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    7.0%
    -37.4%14.9%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    7.2%
    -16.7%29.2%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    5.0%
    -135.4%136.3%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    11.9%
    9.2%67.5%
    Weak
  • ROIC
    7.0%
    -29.3%20.8%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    3.42x
    0.61x4.86x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.71
    -4.825.90
    Strong
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-12 data

Company Overview

Performance Food Group operates through three segments serving the food-away-from-home market: Foodservice distributes food to independent restaurants and chains, Convenience serves retail stores through Core-Mark, and Specialty serves channels such as vending, universities, travel, and hospitality through Vistar. Its growth depends on winning new accounts, increasing its share of spending among existing customers, and expanding proprietary-brand products; the number of proprietary-brand SKUs reached approximately 25 thousand across more than 85 families, and these brands represented approximately 54% of cases sold to independent restaurants in fiscal Q4 2026 excluding Cheney Brothers, or slightly more than 50% when including it.

In fiscal Q4 2026, net sales grew 6.4% and total cases grew 3.5%, while gross profit increased 8.3% and gross profit per case rose by $0.34. Net income reached $162.3 million, up 23.4%, and adjusted EBITDA reached $587.5 million, up 7.4%, while diluted earnings per share were $1.03 and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.59. Foodservice achieved organic growth of 5.8% in independent restaurant cases, Convenience segment adjusted EBITDA increased 10.4%, while Specialty recorded sales growth of 6.6%.

Available EDGAR filings show that revenue reached $4.7 billion, gross profit $604.7 million, and net income $32.3 million in fiscal Q3 2019, compared with revenue of $4.6 billion, gross profit of $614.6 million, and net income of $43.1 million in fiscal Q2 2019. For fiscal 2018, the company recorded revenue of $17.6 billion, gross profit of $2.3 billion, and net income of $198.7 million.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management expects fiscal 2027 sales between $72.5 billion and $73 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion; the midpoint of the two ranges represents annual growth of 7.2% and 12.7%, respectively, with the 53rd week contributing approximately 2% to the year's results.
  • Foodservice continues to gain market share despite negative restaurant traffic throughout fiscal 2026; the number of new independent accounts grew approximately 5% in fiscal Q4 2026, and independent restaurant case growth reached 5.8% for the quarter and 5.9% for the year. The company also won three of four regions in Jersey Mike's request for proposals, with business expected to begin flowing after the midpoint of fiscal 2027.
  • Convenience was an important earnings driver, as the number of national-account stores grew 16% in fiscal 2026 and cases increased 6.9%, supported by Love's and RaceTrac. In fiscal Q4 2026, the foodservice, candy, snacks, and health and beauty categories collectively achieved mid-single-digit growth, compared with an industry contraction of approximately 6%.
  • Procurement initiatives target cumulative savings between $120 million and $125 million by the end of fiscal 2028, and management expects to reach or exceed the upper end. Most of the impact is concentrated in Foodservice, with Cheney Brothers volumes being added to the initiative during the second half of fiscal 2027.
  • Fiscal 2026 generated more than $1.4 billion in operating cash flow and more than $1 billion in free cash flow, increases of approximately $200 million and $326 million, respectively. This gives the company the capacity to fund infrastructure and growth projects and reduce debt, while targeting fiscal 2027 capital expenditures below 70 basis points of net revenue.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Fiscal Q4 2026 results show gross profit and net income growing faster than sales; sales increased 6.4%, compared with 8.3% for gross profit and 23.4% for net income, reflecting improvements in mix, procurement execution, and proprietary-brand growth.
  • +The diversity of drivers across Foodservice, Convenience, and Specialty gives the company more than one path to growth; all three segments recorded growth in fiscal Q4 2026, while independent accounts, Love's, RaceTrac, and the expected expansion with Jersey Mike's supported the sales pipeline.
  • +Management targets fiscal 2028 sales between $73 billion and $75 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $2.3 billion and $2.5 billion, in addition to a 50 to 60 basis point improvement in adjusted EBITDA margin. This path is supported by targeted procurement savings between $120 million and $125 million and improved fleet and warehouse efficiency.
  • +Free cash flow exceeding $1 billion in fiscal 2026 strengthens capital allocation flexibility, after the company ended the year with net debt slightly below the upper end of its targeted leverage range of 2.5 to 3.5 times.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

The average analyst target is $127.33, within a range of $115 to $133, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The average target and the highest target are above the 52-week range high of $117.475, while the stock's 52-week range extends from $80.82 to $117.475; however, the breadth of the target range, fiscal Q4 2026 results that fell short of some expectations, and weak first-quarter guidance justify treating the consensus signal with caution.

BuyAnalyst target: $127.33(+35.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-29; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were PFGC's most important fiscal Q4 2026 results?

Net sales grew 6.4% and total cases increased 3.5% in fiscal Q4 2026. Gross profit increased 8.3%, and net income reached $162.3 million, up 23.4%. Adjusted EBITDA also reached $587.5 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share were $1.59.

What is Performance Food Group's outlook for fiscal 2027?

The company targets sales between $72.5 billion and $73 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $2.125 billion and $2.225 billion in fiscal 2027. The midpoint of the two ranges represents annual growth of 7.2% for sales and 12.7% for adjusted EBITDA, with an approximately 2% benefit from the 53rd week. For fiscal Q1 2027, management expects sales between $17.9 billion and $18.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $510 million and $530 million.

How is PFGC achieving growth in the Foodservice segment?

Foodservice achieved organic growth of 5.8% in independent restaurant cases during fiscal Q4 2026, with full-year growth reaching 5.9%. The company added new independent accounts at a rate of approximately 5%, while its proprietary brands represented approximately 54% of independent cases excluding Cheney Brothers. In fiscal 2027, the company expects additional support from Jersey Mike's after winning three of four regions in the request for proposals.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −End demand remains fragile in some channels; restaurant traffic was negative in every month of fiscal 2026, and chain restaurant case volume declined slightly in fiscal Q4 2026. Management also cited slower cases per store in Convenience due to higher fuel prices, as well as a volatile consumer environment and candy and snack inflation pressures in Specialty.
  • −The company faces real pricing competition in Convenience; it lost some accounts because it would not agree to continue at the required pricing levels, and it expects the impact of these losses to continue through the first two quarters of fiscal 2027. This risk takes on additional importance after a year that benefited exceptionally from the addition of Love's and RaceTrac, while management described the segment's normal revenue growth as low single digit.
  • −The beginning of fiscal 2027 includes expense and margin pressures; higher diesel costs imposed a net impact of approximately $16 million in fiscal Q4 2026, and management expects a similar impact in fiscal Q1 2027. Specialty cost pressures are also expected to continue during the first half, while Cheney Brothers is expected to range from a modest drag to a neutral impact in the first quarter before its contribution improves later.
  • −The guided earnings pace appears weaker at the beginning of fiscal 2027 than for the full year; the company expects fiscal Q1 sales between $17.9 billion and $18.1 billion and adjusted EBITDA between $510 million and $530 million, with quarterly growth accelerating later. Therefore, achieving midpoint annual growth depends on increasing procurement savings, easing fuel pressure, moving past Florence facility expenses, and successfully onboarding new customers.
  • −Consumption patterns are changing with the adoption of GLP-1 drugs; the company has observed a shift toward fresh foods and higher-protein products, including cereals and protein bars. This may create opportunities for some items, but it also introduces mix and volume risks if products and inventories do not adapt to the shift quickly enough.
  • −Insider data signals strong selling, with net sales totaling $23.8 million during the three months ended with the latest transaction on August 25, 2026, comprising 38 sales and no purchases. This remains a weaker signal than the operational risks because insider sales may be prearranged, and the available data do not explain the reasons for each transaction.
Why is the Convenience segment important to PFGC's earnings?

Core-Mark benefited in fiscal 2026 from the addition of Love's and RaceTrac, which increased the number of national-account stores by 16% and drove case growth of 6.9%. Segment adjusted EBITDA increased 10.4% in fiscal Q4 2026 due to margin improvement and expense control. In contrast, management acknowledged losing some accounts for pricing reasons and slower cases per store as fuel prices rose, making the new-customer pipeline a critical factor in the second half of fiscal 2027.

What is the impact of Cheney Brothers and Cash-Wa on the growth trajectory?

The Cheney Brothers facility in Florence became fully operational, and management described it as the company's fastest-growing facility by case volume in the southeastern United States. Management expects to begin incorporating Cheney Brothers volumes into procurement initiatives during the second half of fiscal 2027, and for its infrastructure to support the onboarding of Jersey Mike's business. Cash-Wa adds annual revenue of less than $1 billion and combines Foodservice and Convenience in its model, with a margin between the two segments.

What are the main operational risks facing PFGC in fiscal 2027?

The company expects fuel pressure to continue in fiscal Q1 2027 at a level close to the $16 million net impact recorded in fiscal Q4 2026. Specialty cost pressures will also continue during the first half, while the pace of earnings improvement depends on increasing procurement savings and easing Florence facility expenses. Other risks include competitive account losses in Convenience, weak restaurant traffic, and the shift in demand toward fresh foods and higher-protein products as GLP-1 drugs become more widespread.