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Stocks
Pacific Gas & Electric Co.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall26
Weak — below market medianValue TrapF 5/9DistressBetter than 26% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
75
10.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
50
5.7%▼7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
42
6.0%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
30
4.7x▼2.6xBottom tier
▸
Capital Return
14
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
34
17.0%▲2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
41
11▲3Around median
PCG

PCG PG&E Corporation

PG&E Corporation · NYSE
Market Closed
13.80
▼ ⁦-1.60%⁩ (-0.23)
Market Cap$37.0B
Beta0.28
52w Low52w High
12.5919.16
Last Week
⁦+3.53%⁩
Last Month
⁦-20.23%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-17.46%⁩
Last Year
⁦-7.82%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$14
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$20
⁦+41%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$13–$25⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$18.88
⁦+36.8%⁩
Current Price $13.80·Median $19.50
Low
$13.00
High
$25.00
Current price
$13.80
Average target
$18.88
Street summary

A clear decline in PCG targets amid widening uncertainty

Bearish tilt

The consensus price target fell to 18.88, down 0.45 or 2.33% over 7 days and 4.79 or 20.24% over 30 days compared with 23.67. The number of analysts in the sample also decreased from 5 to 2, making the current consensus less representative and increasing uncertainty. The current range is between 13 and 25, versus a current price of 13.8, while the median is 19.5.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-20.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.88
Buy
Analyst coverage
⁦17 (-3)⁩
Buy conviction
71%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 3↓
Target dispersion
87%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time17 analysts rating
3
9
5
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.94 → 3.88
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-04
    Bank of America Securities
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-09-03
    BMO Capital
    Market Perform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-01
    Bank of America Securities
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    10.00x
    4.50x36.01x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.01x
    4.35x34.77x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    9.44x
    3.07x24.54x
    Cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -11.5%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Below average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    5.7%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    26.6%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    46.9%
    9.8%69.4%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    6.0%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.73x
    1.28x10.25x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    0.53
    0.573.91
    Weak
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-23 data

Company Overview

PG&E Corporation operates through a regulated electric utility serving millions of customers in California, and its ability to generate earnings is based on capital investment in the grid and the recovery of costs and returns through regulatory frameworks. Its plan centers on improving safety and reliability while reducing non-fuel operating and maintenance expenses, and it targets keeping annual customer bill growth between 0% and 3%.

In Q2 fiscal 2026, revenue was $5.9 billion, net income was $761 million, and EPS according to EDGAR was approximately $0.33, while management reported core EPS of $0.40. In the first half of fiscal 2026, core EPS reached $0.83, up $0.19 from the corresponding period, with capital investment to serve customers contributing $0.09 to this improvement, while net operating and maintenance savings and redeployment added $0.03.

For fiscal 2025, the company recorded revenue of $24.9 billion, net income of $2.7 billion, and EPS of $1.18, while trailing-twelve-month data in 2026 showed revenue of $25.8 billion, net income of $3.2 billion, and EPS of approximately $1.39. The data does not present gross profit, gross margin, or a financial breakdown of revenue by segment, but the $73 billion capital plan through 2030 includes approximately $20 billion of FERC investments, $16 billion for resilience and system hardening, and $23 billion for capacity and new business.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Management reaffirmed core EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at $1.64–$1.66; the midpoint of the range represents 10% growth over 2025, and it maintained its target of more than 9% annual EPS growth during 2027–2030.
  • The data center project pipeline increased to more than 12 gigawatts in Q2 fiscal 2026, but the actual planning assumption is limited to adding approximately 1.8 gigawatts by 2030. Management says each gigawatt of appropriately priced new load could reduce electricity rates by approximately 1% or more.
  • A $73 billion capital investment plan through 2030 supports rate base growth, and management confirms that it does not need additional equity financing during this period. There are also at least $5 billion of additional investment opportunities outside the plan, concentrated primarily in projects that could facilitate new loads that lower customer rates.
  • The company targets reducing non-fuel operating and maintenance expenses by 2%–4% annually, and in 2026 it achieved savings exceeding $40 million from sourcing and procurement initiatives. It also targets increasing the capital-to-expense ratio from 1.0 in 2025 to 1.7 by 2030.
  • Since January 2025, continuous grid monitoring has helped avoid approximately 20 million outage minutes, 28 ignitions in high-risk areas, and more than 5 thousand hours of emergency response, with repair savings exceeding $11 million. Through Q2 fiscal 2026, reliability improved 23% year over year, and the company was in its fourth year without major wildfires linked to its equipment or buildings destroyed because of them.
  • The company moved to within one credit rating notch of investment grade following an S&P upgrade, and in June 2026 it completed a $2.2 billion utility bond issuance, bringing utility debt financing during the year to $4.4 billion. Management targets a funds-from-operations-to-debt ratio in the mid-teens and a 20% dividend payout ratio by 2028.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The bullish case is based on a relatively clear earnings path: core guidance of $1.64–$1.66 for fiscal 2026, followed by annual growth exceeding 9% during 2027–2030, supported by rate base investment and expense reductions.
  • +The $73 billion plan gives the company a substantial growth base without issuing additional shares through 2030, according to management, limiting dilution risk for shareholders. The current low dividend payout ratio also helps the company fund its growth while targeting an increase in the payout to 20% in 2028.
  • +Data center loads could turn demand growth in PG&E's service territory into lower customer rates and investment growth; the pipeline exceeds 12 gigawatts, and the company plans for approximately 1.8 gigawatts to enter service by 2030. Requiring an executable work agreement and a financial commitment of approximately 10% of the project cost at the final engineering stage also improves the quality of advanced projects in the pipeline.
  • +Safety and operating results show tangible improvement, including four years without major wildfires linked to PG&E equipment, a 23% improvement in reliability in 2026, and 28 ignitions avoided since January 2025. These developments supported S&P's upgrade of the company to one notch below investment grade.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The analyst consensus is “Buy,” with an average price target of $23.8 and a range between $21 and $28. The average target is above the 52-week high of $19.16, reflecting expectations that targeted EPS growth and credit improvement will materialize, but the range of targets and the continued lack of resolution regarding the wildfire liability framework justify retaining a risk margin in the valuation.

BuyAnalyst target: $23.8(+72.5%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What were PG&E's results in Q2 fiscal 2026?

Revenue in Q2 fiscal 2026 was approximately $5.9 billion, and net income was $761 million. EPS according to EDGAR was $0.33, while core EPS presented by management was $0.40. Core EPS in the first half of fiscal 2026 reached $0.83, up $0.19 from the corresponding period.

What is PG&E's earnings guidance for fiscal 2026?

On July 23, 2026, management reaffirmed core EPS guidance for fiscal 2026 at $1.64–$1.66. The midpoint of the range represents 10% growth compared with fiscal 2025. The company also maintained its target of more than 9% annual EPS growth during the period from 2027 to 2030.

How could data centers affect PG&E's growth?

PG&E's data center project pipeline exceeded 12 gigawatts in Q2 fiscal 2026. However, management's assumption is that only approximately 1.8 gigawatts will enter service by 2030, and it clarified that not all projects will be completed. The company believes each gigawatt of new load, if appropriately priced, could reduce rates for other customers by approximately 1% or more.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −The five-year plan explicitly depends on California reaching a permanent, financeable framework for wildfire liability under Phase 2 of SB 254. Management confirmed that it would reassess capital allocation priorities and long-term investments if the framework remains unresolved or inadequate, exposing the path of the $73 billion plan and targeted growth rates to change.
  • −Cost recovery requests for the Kincaid and Dixie wildfires remain subject to regulatory proceedings, and on the July 23, 2026 call, the company expected a proposed decision to be issued in November 2026. Despite having a safety certificate and a regulatory presumption of prudent conduct, the final outcome is unresolved in the data.
  • −The data center pipeline of more than 12 gigawatts may not fully convert into actual load, and management explicitly said that not all projects will progress through the final stages. Its operating assumption is only approximately 1.8 gigawatts by 2030, while the positive impact also depends on pricing loads in a way that lowers rates for other customers and on the outcomes of regulatory frameworks at FERC, CAISO, and CPUC.
  • −The financing plan involves substantial debt needs; the company issued $2.2 billion of utility bonds in June 2026, and total utility debt financing during the year reached $4.4 billion. Achieving investment-grade status and reducing borrowing costs remain linked, according to indications from S&P and Moody's, to a permanent legislative solution for wildfire liability.
  • −The average analyst target of $23.8 reflects an assumption above the recorded high within the 52-week range of $19.16, while the highest target reaches $28. Therefore, achieving the consensus valuation depends on executing earnings growth, improving the credit rating, and gaining clarity on the regulatory framework, not solely on current operating performance.
  • −Insider activity during the three months through the latest transaction on July 22, 2026 recorded net selling of $3.4 million across four sales with no purchases. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data states otherwise.
Why is wildfire liability reform important for PCG stock?

PG&E's five-year plan assumes implementation of California's commitment under Phase 2 of SB 254 to establish a permanent, financeable wildfire liability framework. Management views this framework as necessary to attract low-cost capital and support achieving investment-grade status. If the framework remains unresolved or inadequate, management said it would reassess capital allocation and long-term investments, while maintaining safety, compliance, and service commitments.

How is PG&E funding its capital plan through 2030?

The capital plan totals $73 billion through 2030, and management says its equity needs are fully funded and do not require issuing additional shares. The plan includes approximately $20 billion of FERC investments, approximately $16 billion for resilience and system hardening, and $23 billion for capacity and new business. In June 2026, the company issued $2.2 billion of utility bonds, bringing total utility debt financing during the year to $4.4 billion.

Have the safety and reliability of PG&E's grid improved?

On the July 23, 2026 call, the company stated that it was in its fourth year without major wildfires linked to its equipment and without buildings destroyed because of them. Since January 2025, continuous monitoring has helped avoid approximately 20 million outage minutes, 28 ignitions, and more than 5 thousand hours of emergency response. Reliability also improved 23% in 2026 compared with the corresponding period, and more than 650 high-definition cameras helped accelerate wildfire response by 18 minutes.