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Home
Stocks
PACCAR Inc
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall59
Balanced — near the middle of the marketHigh FlyerF 5/9SafeBetter than 59% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
43
25.8x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
20
-10.6%▼7.1%Bottom tier
▸
Quality
56
5.6%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
72
2.6x2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
46
2.23%▲2.12%Around median
▸
Momentum
70
33.6%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
63
10▲3Around median
PCAR

PCAR PACCAR Inc

PACCAR Inc · NASDAQ
Market Closed
122.73
▲ ⁦+0.13%⁩ (+0.16)
Market Cap$64.6B
Beta0.98
52w Low52w High
92.25139.24
Last Week
⁦+0.49%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.39%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+7.67%⁩
Last Year
⁦+25.84%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$123
Analyst target · 5 analysts
$135
⁦+10%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$125–$150⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$95
⁦-23%⁩
Sees it clearly overvalued
⁦8.7⁩% discount · ⁦2⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$95–$135⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 5 analysts setting price target
$136.33
⁦+11.1%⁩
Current Price $122.73·Median $135.00
Low
$125.00
High
$150.00
Current price
$122.73
Average target
$136.33
Street summary

Gradual improvement in PACCAR targets with clear divergence

Bullish tilt

The average price target rose to 136.33 from 133.60 over 7 days, and to 136.33 from 132.40 over 30 days, an increase of 2.04% and 2.97%, respectively, while the number of analysts remained at five. RBC Capital also raised its rating from «Sector Perform» to «Outperform» on 2026-09-10, while Bernstein and Citigroup kept their ratings unchanged in the latest updates received. These moves make the tone more positive, but they do not indicate broad consensus for a change in ratings.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+3.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.37
Hold
Analyst coverage
19
Buy conviction
32%
Rating activity · 30d
1↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
20%
Analyst ratings over time19 analysts rating
1
5
13
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.38 → 3.37
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬆ Upgrade2026-09-10
    RBC Capital
    Sector PerformOutperform
  • = Reiterate2026-07-29
    Bernstein
    Outperform
  • = Reiterate2026-05-11
    Evercore ISI Group
    —· $139.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    25.78x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    19.76x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    20.71x
    3.43x27.47x
    Above average
  • FCF Yield
    5.7%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    -10.6%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Weak
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -18.5%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Near median
  • Gross Margin
    20.0%
    8.6%54.6%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    5.6%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    2.56x
    0.55x4.37x
    Near median
  • Dividend Yield
    2.2%
    0.1%4.8%
    Moderate
  • Payout Ratio
    57.5%
    6.6%80.8%
    Moderate
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.73
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-28 data

Company Overview

PACCAR operates in heavy-duty transportation solutions through three interconnected income drivers: truck manufacturing, parts and aftermarket services sales, and financial services. Its portfolio includes DAF trucks and PACCAR engines, while PACCAR Parts supports fleets with replacement parts and fleet service programs, and PACCAR Financial Services generates income from vehicle financing, financing margins, and the used truck market.

In Q2 FY2026, PACCAR recorded revenue of $7.5 billion and gross profit of $1.6 billion, equivalent to a calculated gross margin of approximately 21.3%. Net income was $752 million, or $1.43 per share, up 24% from Q1 FY2026, when net income was $605.3 million. The company’s revenue also increased from $6.8 billion in Q1 FY2026 to $7.5 billion in Q2 FY2026.

The truck business led the results, with deliveries rising from 33 thousand to 38.7 thousand trucks, while PACCAR Parts recorded quarterly revenue of $1.75 billion, representing approximately 23% of the company’s total revenue, pretax income of $417 million, and a gross margin of 29.8%. PACCAR Financial Services also generated pretax income of $124 million, illustrating the contribution of parts and financing in mitigating volatility in the truck sales cycle. The combined gross margin for trucks, parts, and other activities increased from 13.1% to 14.4% between Q1 and Q2 FY2026.

What's Driving the Stock

  • PACCAR expects to deliver approximately 42 thousand trucks in Q3 FY2026, compared with 38.7 thousand in Q2 FY2026, with production rates continuing to increase despite the impact of the customary summer shutdown in Europe.
  • Management believes the U.S. and Canadian heavy-duty truck market could reach approximately 250 thousand units in FY2026, following retail sales of 105 thousand units in the first half and an expectation of approximately 145 thousand units in the second half; it also indicated that production slots were full for Q3 and approximately 90% of FY2026 as of July 28, 2026.
  • PACCAR Parts recorded quarterly revenue of $1.75 billion in Q2 FY2026, and the fleet services program grew 8%. The company expects parts sales growth of between 3% and 5% in FY2026, with management favoring the high end of the range during the second half.
  • Transportation customer economics improved, as management stated on July 28, 2026, that spot freight rates increased 20% and contract rates 6.5%, supporting fleets’ ability to replace trucks and purchase parts after a period of deferred capital spending.
  • The company is targeting a gross margin of 14.5% for trucks, parts, and other activities in Q3 FY2026, followed by an additional increase in Q4 FY2026. Management links this trajectory to higher production, cost control, improved price versus cost, and the benefits of local production for the local market.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 FY2026 results showed clear operating strength, as net income increased 24% from the previous quarter to $752 million, alongside an increase in truck deliveries to 38.7 thousand units and an improvement in the combined margin to 14.4%.
  • +PACCAR Parts provides a more recurring source of earnings than new truck sales, generating quarterly revenue of $1.75 billion, pretax income of $417 million, and a gross margin of 29.8% in Q2 FY2026.
  • +Full production slots for Q3 and approximately 90% of FY2026 support demand visibility, while the forecast of 42 thousand deliveries in Q3 FY2026 indicates continued expansion compared with 38.7 thousand in the previous quarter.
  • +In FY2026, PACCAR is allocating between $700 million and $750 million to capital investments and between $450 million and $480 million to research and development, including flexible manufacturing, clean engines, hybrid and electric powertrains, and connected vehicle services.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

  • −

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $132.4, approximately 4.9% below the 52-week range high of $139.24, while the target range extends from $119 to $148 and places the highest target approximately 6.3% above that high. The consensus remains Neutral, reflecting that the strength of Q2 FY2026 earnings and the recovery in deliveries are offset by dependence on an acceleration in the truck market, an expected nearly stable margin in Q3, and regulatory uncertainty related to EPA rules.

HoldAnalyst target: $132.4(+7.9%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove PACCAR’s Q2 FY2026 results?

Revenue was $7.5 billion and net income was $752 million, or $1.43 per share, in Q2 FY2026. Net income increased 24% from Q1 FY2026 as truck deliveries rose from 33 thousand to 38.7 thousand units. Profitability also benefited from improved price versus cost, expense control, warranty performance, and local production for the local market.

How important is PACCAR Parts to PCAR’s earnings?

PACCAR Parts generated quarterly revenue of $1.75 billion in Q2 FY2026, with pretax income of $417 million. Its gross margin was 29.8%, while fleet services program revenue increased 8% as truck utilization rose. Management expects parts sales growth of between 3% and 5% in FY2026, favoring the high end of the range in the second half.

What is PACCAR’s outlook for the truck market and deliveries in FY2026?

PACCAR expects the U.S. and Canadian heavy-duty truck market to reach approximately 250 thousand units in FY2026, split between 105 thousand units in the first half and approximately 145 thousand in the second half. It estimates the European market for trucks above 16 tonnes at approximately 310 thousand units and the South American market at between 100 thousand and 110 thousand units. At the company level, PACCAR is targeting approximately 42 thousand deliveries in Q3 FY2026 after 38.7 thousand in Q2.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

Achieving the estimated U.S. and Canadian market of approximately 250 thousand trucks in FY2026 depends on retail sales rising from 105 thousand units in the first half to approximately 145 thousand in the second half; therefore, any faltering in the recovery of fleet spending would pressure the planned increase in production and deliveries.
  • −Supply chain constraints emerged as production increased, with management stating on July 28, 2026, that supplier issues delayed the delivery of a few hundred trucks in the United States during Q2 FY2026, and these constraints could become more significant as the company targets 42 thousand deliveries in Q3.
  • −Despite the expected increase in deliveries, the Q3 FY2026 gross margin forecast is only 14.5% versus 14.4% in Q2, due to the higher weighting of trucks relative to parts and a production mix shift toward relatively less profitable fleet trucks instead of vocational trucks.
  • −Nitrogen oxide emissions rules are still not final; management explained on July 28, 2026, that the EPA announcement issued on July 9, 2026, was a proposal subject to a comment period. The proposal indicates noncompliance penalties of between $6 thousand and $7 thousand per truck, while the cost of a fully compliant engine could be higher, leaving regulatory and pricing risks until the final version is issued.
  • −The analyst consensus on PCAR is Neutral, while price targets range from $119 to $148 around an average of $132.4, representing notable divergence in earnings and operating-cycle estimates compared with the 52-week range of $92.25 to $139.24.
  • −Net insider activity during the three months ending with the latest transaction on July 31, 2026, consisted of $7.2 million in sales across two sale transactions and no purchases. This is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged unless the data states otherwise.
  • How will EPA rules affect PACCAR in 2027?

    Management said on July 28, 2026, that the EPA proposal issued on July 9, 2026, allows the current generation of engines to be sold in exchange for an estimated noncompliance penalty of between $6 thousand and $7 thousand per truck. PACCAR plans to begin 2027 by selling its current engines and engines from its partner Cummins, then gradually introduce customers to 35-milligram engines as the year progresses. However, the proposal was still subject to comments and its final version had not been issued, so the cost and final rules remain a source of uncertainty.

    What is PACCAR doing in electric, connected, and autonomous truck technologies?

    PACCAR plans to spend between $700 million and $750 million on capital investments and between $450 million and $480 million on research and development in FY2026. The programs include flexible manufacturing, next-generation clean diesel engines, hybrid and electric powertrains, and integrated and connected vehicle services. In autonomous driving, management stated on July 28, 2026, that it is developing an autonomous vehicle platform in collaboration with Aurora, Stack AV, and Kodiak, but explicitly said there were no plans to remove the driver at that stage.

    What do analyst targets for PCAR look like?

    The analyst consensus on PCAR is Neutral, and the average price target is $132.4. The lowest target is $119 and the highest target is $148, compared with a 52-week range of $92.25 to $139.24. The average target is approximately 4.9% below the top of that range, while the highest target exceeds it by approximately 6.3%, highlighting differing estimates regarding the sustainability of the truck market and margin recovery.