EL7.AI
Strategy BuilderCOT DataAdvanced NewsResearchNewEarnings CalendarEconomic Calendar
We use cookiesPrivacy Policy
EL7.AIEL7.AI

AI Financial Intelligence
Professional analysis of central bank decisions

© 2026 EL7.AI. All rights reserved.

Markets

  • News
  • Forex
  • Stocks
  • Crypto
  • Gold
  • Commodities
  • Indices
  • ETFs

Analysis

  • Fed
  • ECB
  • BLS
  • COT
  • Economic Calendar

Learn

  • Service Guide
  • Oil

Company

  • About
  • Contact
  • Data Methodology
  • AI Disclosure
  • Pricing
  • Enterprise
  • Terms
  • Privacy
  • Security
  • WhatsApp
Status data is currently unavailable

The information provided on EL7.AI is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

Home
Stocks
Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall98
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9Better than 98% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
97
2.4x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
66
136.8%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
80
31.5%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
76
0.6x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
27
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
92
45.0%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
83
5▲3Top tier
PBR-A

PBR-A Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras · NYSE
Market Closed
19.11
▼ ⁦-0.57%⁩ (-0.11)
Market Cap$123.2B
Beta-0.22
52w Low52w High
10.7620.05
Last Week
⁦+1.59%⁩
Last Month
⁦+18.99%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+18.77%⁩
Last Year
⁦+67.78%⁩
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$19
Analyst target
No data
vs
DCF (estimate)
$39
⁦+104%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

Compare in the screener
Premium content

Get Your Premium Account Now

  • Stock Deep Analysis
  • The Advanced News Platform
Recommended
Annual plan
$17/mo
Monthly plan
$29/mo

Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target
—
Current Price $19.11
Analyst coverage
22
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-01-14
    UBS
    Buy
  • ⬆ Upgrade2023-09-07
    Bradesco Corretora
    NeutralOutperform
  • ⬆ Upgrade2023-08-23
    UBS
    NeutralBuy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    2.37x
    3.56x28.47x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    4.38x
    3.36x26.89x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    1.63x
    2.12x16.98x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    15.7%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    136.8%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    234.5%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Strong
  • Gross Margin
    47.8%
    7.8%72.1%
    Above average
  • ROIC
    31.5%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.56x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-07 data

Company Overview

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras operates through oil and gas exploration and production, followed by crude oil refining, the marketing of fuels and petroleum products, and the export of surpluses. Cash generation comes from production and sales volumes, oil prices—particularly Brent—refinery efficiency, and the mix of higher-value products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel. In Q2 FY2026, oil production reached 2.7 million barrels per day, total oil and gas production exceeded 3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, and oil exports increased 12%.

The August 7, 2026 call showed that Q2 FY2026 delivered record gross profit of $19.5 billion, while adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, excluding nonrecurring items, reached $20 billion, up 70% from Q1 FY2026 and nearly double the level of a year earlier. Operating cash flow was $12.3 billion, up approximately 50% from the previous quarter, while management described recurring net income as the highest quarterly figure in Petrobras's history in dollar terms without disclosing its value in the text. Capital investment totaled $5.3 billion, 82% of which was allocated to exploration and production projects, illustrating the weight of upstream operations in the investment mix.

According to the latest EDGAR filings, Q2 FY2025 recorded revenue of $21.0 billion and gross profit of $10.0 billion, equivalent to a gross margin of approximately 47.6%, net income of $4.8 billion, and earnings per share of $0.37. Revenue declined from $23.5 billion in Q2 FY2024, but the net result reversed from a loss of $325 million and negative earnings per share of $0.03. In Q2 FY2026, the refinery utilization factor reached 101%, petroleum product output increased 6% from the previous quarter, and imports declined 40%, particularly diesel imports.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Oil production in Q2 FY2026 grew 15% year over year to 2.7 million barrels per day, exceeding the quarterly target of 2.5 million barrels per day by approximately 200 thousand barrels, making it the clearest operating driver of revenue and cash flow.
  • The Alexandre de Gusmao and P-78 units each have nameplate capacity of 180 thousand barrels per day and were producing 100 thousand and 120 thousand barrels per day, respectively, while P-79 began operating in May 2026 with capacity of 180 thousand barrels per day; management estimated the remaining capacity to increase production during the second half of FY2026 at approximately 270 thousand barrels per day.
  • The Almirante Tamandare platform reached peak production of 270 thousand barrels per day versus original capacity of 225 thousand, while operating seven platforms above their original capacity added more than 100 thousand barrels per day without additional construction or investment, supporting cash flow with attractive capital economics.
  • The 101% refinery utilization factor in Q2 FY2026 increased petroleum product output by 6% and reduced imports by 40%, while preserving the share of higher-value products. In July 2026, Petrobras recorded all-time-high diesel production of 3.904 million cubic meters, strengthening its ability to meet demand and reduce dependence on imported diesel.
  • Petrobras expects to end FY2026 near the upper end of its $16.9 billion investment estimate, with a margin of plus or minus 5%. The pace of execution in Q2 FY2026 included a 40% increase in well drilling, a 45% increase in well completions, and a 43% increase in tie-in activities compared with the previous quarter.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +Q2 FY2026 delivered a strong combination of record production, record gross profit of $19.5 billion, and operating cash flow of $12.3 billion, indicating that the improvement in results did not depend on the Brent price alone but also on higher volumes and efficiency.
  • +Completing the production ramp-up of P-78, P-79, and Alexandre de Gusmao provides an opportunity to add up to 270 thousand barrels per day of capacity during the second half of FY2026, above the Q2 FY2026 oil production level of 2.7 million barrels per day.
  • +Reservoir management reduced the annual decline rate from approximately 12% at the beginning of the current administration to nearly 4%, supported by four-dimensional seismic surveys, intelligent completions, water injection, and infill wells, helping protect production from large offshore assets.
  • +Renegotiating charter-back and well-services contracts targets cash flow savings exceeding $1 billion between 2026 and 2030, along with a debt reduction of more than $400 million by 2030, while the company repaid $2.9 billion of loans and financing in Q2 FY2026.

▼ Selling Case6 pts

Valuation

Analyst consensus rates PBR-A shares as a Buy, while the reference market capitalization is $103.5 billion. The 52-week range is between $10.76 and $20.05, meaning the upper end is approximately 86% above the lower end, a wide range consistent with the valuation's sensitivity to Brent prices, operational execution, and capital allocation policy. Q2 FY2026 results support an operational rerating, but earnings volatility in FY2023 and FY2024 and expense and regulatory risks prevent the Buy consensus from being considered risk-free evidence.

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-26; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What drove Petrobras PBR-A results in Q2 FY2026?

Oil production reached 2.7 million barrels per day, up 15% year over year and 200 thousand barrels per day above the quarterly target. A 12% increase in exports and a 101% refinery utilization factor helped convert the additional volumes into sales and cash flow. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $20 billion, while operating cash flow reached $12.3 billion and gross profit hit a record $19.5 billion.

Can Petrobras increase production beyond 2.7 million barrels per day?

On August 7, 2026, management estimated that approximately 270 thousand barrels per day of ramp-up capacity was available during the second half of FY2026. This capacity comes from ramping up P-78, P-79, and Alexandre de Gusmao, each of which has nameplate capacity of 180 thousand barrels per day. However, production guidance includes scheduled downtime equivalent to approximately 290 thousand barrels per day and technical and weather risks, so the company maintained its guidance margin at plus or minus 4%.

How do refining and diesel affect the Petrobras investment case?

The refinery utilization factor reached 101% in Q2 FY2026, including approximately 102% in April and May 2026. Petroleum product output increased 6% from the previous quarter, while imports declined 40%, with the mix of higher-value diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel maintained. In July 2026, the company recorded all-time-high diesel production of 3.904 million cubic meters, while the REVAP, REPLAN, and REGAP expansions target the addition of approximately 10 thousand cubic meters per day of throughput.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • −Results remain cyclical and sensitive to oil prices; Brent exceeded $104 per barrel in Q2 FY2026 and contributed to strong earnings, while management said it expected the price to later return to the assumptions used in the 2025–2030 plan. The financial statements demonstrate this sensitivity, as FY2024 revenue declined to $91.4 billion from $102.4 billion in FY2023, while net income fell to $7.6 billion from $25.0 billion.
  • −Operating expenses reached $11.7 billion in the first half of FY2026 versus an annual plan of $20.2 billion, meaning approximately 58% of the full-year allocation was consumed during the first half. Management warned that the estimate could be exceeded if freight and logistics costs and exchange rates remained at the same levels during the second half of FY2026.
  • −Maintaining record production requires capacity ramp-ups and maintenance to be executed safely, and the company estimated the impact of scheduled downtime during FY2026 at approximately 290 thousand barrels per day. It also explained that offshore conditions in the second half of FY2026 could limit its ability to advance platform commissioning schedules.
  • −The gas business faces direct competition, as Petrobras said in August 2026 that its share was only 15.6% of the market, with 31 companies, more than 100 free consumers, and five private terminals. This competitive structure limits the company's ability to control supply and prices on its own.
  • −Regulatory changes in the gas market or taxes could lead to a reassessment of the economics of oil and gas, refining, and petrochemical projects, according to management. In addition, drilling additional wells in block BMFCA-49 on the Equatorial Margin was awaiting official permits in August 2026, adding timing and execution risks to the reserve replacement program.
  • −Braskem represents unresolved legal and capital exposure; on August 7, 2026, Petrobras said it was still evaluating its options following the new shareholders' agreement, while a court order remained in effect until October 24, 2026. Management declined to specify the outcome of negotiations or commit to a capital injection, leaving the scope of the financial impact unclear.
  • What is the status of Petrobras's debt and distributions after Q2 FY2026?

    Petrobras ended Q2 FY2026 with total debt of $70.8 billion and net debt of $60.4 billion. During the quarter, it repaid $2.9 billion of loans and financing, including $1.4 billion for banking transactions and $700 million for repurchases and redemptions of international bonds. Management explained on August 7, 2026 that advancing investments with returns and reducing debt take precedence over extraordinary distributions, while applying the ordinary distribution formula of 14% to additional cash, according to its presentation.

    What are the main Petrobras PBR-A risks that should be monitored?

    A significant portion of results depends on the Brent price, which exceeded $104 per barrel in Q2 FY2026, and on platforms and refineries continuing to operate at high rates. Operating expenses also reached $11.7 billion in the first half of FY2026 versus an annual plan of $20.2 billion, and may exceed the plan if freight costs and the exchange rate remain elevated. Other risks include permits for additional wells in BMFCA-49, potential regulatory changes in the gas market, and the unresolved status of Petrobras's options regarding Braskem as of the August 7, 2026 call.

    What does Petrobras's spending and growth plan look like?

    Capital investment reached $5.3 billion in Q2 FY2026 and $10.4 billion during the first half of FY2026. 82% of the investment went to exploration and production, alongside a 40% increase in drilling, a 45% increase in well completions, and a 43% increase in tie-in activities from the previous quarter. The company expects to end FY2026 near the upper end of its $16.9 billion spending estimate, with a margin of plus or minus 5%, while prioritizing projects with high returns and rapid cash flow.