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Home
Stocks
Paychex, Inc.
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall89
Excellent — top fifth of the marketHigh FlyerF 8/9SafeBetter than 89% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
41
23.6x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
68
16.9%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
95
21.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
70
1.2x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
72
3.83%▲2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
62
-11.4%▼2.9%Around median
▸
Sentiment
61
12▲3Around median
PAYX

PAYX Paychex, Inc.

Paychex, Inc. · NASDAQ
Market Closed
115.80
▲ ⁦+0.54%⁩ (+0.62)
Market Cap$41.2B
Beta0.80
52w Low52w High
85.45135.97
Last Week
⁦-7.83%⁩
Last Month
⁦-4.44%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+15.48%⁩
Last Year
⁦-14.49%⁩
Fair Value
Current price$116
Analyst target · 12 analysts
$110
⁦-5%⁩
See it slightly overvalued
Range ⁦$103–$115⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$122
⁦+5%⁩
Sees it undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦4⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$110–$122⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 12 analysts setting price target
$109.17
⁦-5.7%⁩
Current Price $115.80·Median $109.50
Low
$103.00
High
$115.00
Current price
$115.80
Average target
$109.17
Street summary

Stable Targets with a Limited Negative Bias

The average price target rose slightly from 108.8 to 109.17, an increase of 0.37 or 0.34% over the last 7 and 30 days, while the number of analysts remained at 12 with no change over the last day. The range is between 103 and 115, while the median is 109.5; compared with the current price of 115.8, the target estimates appear to be below the current price, with limited divergence among analysts.

As of 2026-09-11
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦+0.3%⁩
Average rating
★ 2.72
Hold
Analyst coverage
18
Buy conviction
11%
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
10%
Analyst ratings over time18 analysts rating
2
11
3
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months2.82 → 2.72
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-09-11
    TD Cowen
    Hold
  • = Reiterate2026-09-09
    Wells Fargo
    Underweight
  • = Reiterate2026-08-12
    Jefferies
    Hold
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    23.63x
    5.69x45.54x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    19.33x
    4.57x36.58x
    Near median
  • EV / EBITDA
    15.15x
    3.43x27.47x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    5.6%
    -32.7%11.5%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    16.9%
    -10.7%43.4%
    Above average
  • EPS Growth YoY
    7.2%
    -128.3%132.7%
    Above average
  • Gross Margin
    74.3%
    8.6%54.6%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    21.9%
    -25.3%19.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.19x
    0.55x4.37x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    3.8%
    0.1%4.8%
    High
  • Payout Ratio
    90.3%
    6.6%80.8%
    High
  • Altman Z-Score
    3.19
    -5.667.97
    Above average
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-06-24 data

Company Overview

Paychex provides payroll, human resources, benefits, insurance, and retirement solutions to businesses, combining its technology platforms with human advisory expertise. Revenue is generated primarily from Management Solutions, which includes payroll and human resources services, and from Professional Employer Organization and Insurance Solutions, in addition to interest on funds held for clients. The company is also expanding employee-related revenue streams through the Perks marketplace and, through WISE, is developing standalone solutions that do not require use of the core payroll platform.

In Q4 of fiscal 2026, the earnings call held on June 24, 2026, reported that revenue increased 12% to $1.6 billion; including $1.2 billion from Management Solutions, up 14%, $370 million from Professional Employer Organization and Insurance Solutions, up 9%, and $52 million from interest on client funds, up 15%. Operating income margin reached 37.7% after improving by approximately 750 basis points, and adjusted operating margin reached 42.1% after improving by approximately 170 basis points. Diluted earnings per share increased 43% to $1.17, and adjusted diluted earnings per share increased 11% to $1.32; meanwhile, EDGAR data filed for the same quarter shows revenue of $1.8 billion, gross profit of $1.3 billion, and net income of $420.6 million.

In fiscal 2026, revenue increased 17% to $6.5 billion, and Management Solutions revenue rose 20% to $4.9 billion, compared with 7% growth in Professional Employer Organization and Insurance Solutions revenue to $1.4 billion. Operating income margin reached 38.6%, and adjusted operating margin increased by approximately 70 basis points to 43.2%, while net income according to EDGAR data reached $1.8 billion and earnings per share reached $4.89. Operating cash flow also increased 35% to $2.6 billion and free cash flow increased 36% to $2.3 billion, and the company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders through $1.6 billion in dividends and $600 million in share repurchases.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Paychex is targeting total revenue and Management Solutions growth of between 5% and 6% in fiscal 2027, and Professional Employer Organization and Insurance Solutions growth of between 6% and 7%, with adjusted diluted earnings per share growth of between 7% and 9%. It also expects an adjusted operating income margin of approximately 44%, compared with 43.2% in fiscal 2026, and a margin of between 41% and 42% in Q1 of fiscal 2027.
  • WISE has become the company's artificial intelligence engine and powers approximately 600 features and agents using more than 26 trillion data points. In the limited launch of reporting and timekeeping enhancements within Flex, the trial included approximately 10,000 clients and achieved an approximately 70% reduction in errors, while workforce management solutions reduced timecard approval time by more than 50%.
  • Cost savings from the Paycor acquisition exceeded $100 million, and synergies added more than 50 basis points to revenue growth in fiscal 2026. Paychex is working to sell ASO, retirement, and PEO solutions to the Paycor base, and enterprise segment bookings in Q4 of fiscal 2026 recorded their highest dollar value of the year.
  • ASO worksite employee relationships increased by more than 60% during fiscal 2026, and ASO and PEO achieved record levels of worksite employee retention. PEO worksite employee count also grew at a high-single-digit rate in Q4 and fiscal 2026, and the core PEO business grew at a double-digit rate in that quarter.
  • More than 400,000 unique employees purchased portable benefits through Perks, and Paychex is expanding marketplace access to more than 2.5 million employees on the Paycor platform. In the broker channel, the Paycor opportunity pipeline returned to pre-acquisition levels, and the company signed two national partnerships in Q4 of fiscal 2026, one of them with Hub International.

Buying & Selling Case

▲ Buying Case4 pts

  • +The growth thesis is based on a genuine expansion of wallet share; management said fiscal 2027 growth will come primarily from higher revenue per client, split approximately evenly between pricing and the sale of additional products, with accelerating bookings and cross-selling within the Paycor base.
  • +The combination of WISE, proprietary data, and regulatory expertise provides pathways to generate direct revenue and improve retention, pricing, and upselling. This is supported by approximately 600 features and agents, more than 26 trillion data points, and a trial involving approximately 10,000 clients that reduced errors by approximately 70%.
  • +The quality of cash flows supports Paychex's ability to invest and return capital; free cash flow reached $2.3 billion in fiscal 2026, up 36%, and the company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders. Trailing 12-month return on equity also remained at 45%.
  • +The updated operating architecture gives Paychex a capability it did not previously have to sell insurance, retirement, and compliance tools as solutions independent of the payroll platform. This pathway is expanding through Perks to more than 2.5 million employees on Paycor, after more than 400,000 unique employees had already used the marketplace.

▼ Selling Case

Valuation

The average analyst price target is $108.8, within a range of $103 to $115, and the average is approximately 22% below the 52-week range high of $139.53. The Hold consensus reflects a cautious stance despite fiscal 2026 growth and is consistent with revenue growth guidance slowing to 5%–6% and growth depending on pricing and cross-selling. The provided data does not include a usable price-to-earnings ratio, so the stock cannot be evaluated on an earnings-multiple basis using the provided sources.

HoldAnalyst target: $108.8(-6.0%)

Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-27; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

FAQ

What are the primary revenue drivers for Paychex in fiscal 2027?

Paychex expects total revenue growth of between 5% and 6% in fiscal 2027, with the same range for Management Solutions and growth of between 6% and 7% for PEO and Insurance Solutions. Management said the client base will be nearly stable or may improve slightly within targeted client sizes. Therefore, most growth will come from higher revenue per client, split approximately evenly between pricing and expanding Paychex's wallet share.

How does the Paycor acquisition contribute to Paychex's results?

Paycor added approximately eight percentage points to Management Solutions revenue growth in Q4 of fiscal 2026. Paychex exceeded its cost-savings target, achieving more than $100 million, while synergies added more than 50 basis points to revenue growth during fiscal 2026. The company is selling ASO, retirement, and PEO solutions to the Paycor base, and the enterprise segment recorded high-single-digit growth across both platforms in Q4 of fiscal 2026.

What is the scale of Paychex's WISE artificial intelligence initiative?

WISE powers approximately 600 features and agents and is based on more than 26 trillion proprietary data points. In a limited launch within Flex involving approximately 10,000 clients, reporting and timekeeping enhancements reduced errors by approximately 70%. The solutions also allow work schedules to be created within minutes and reduce timecard approval time by more than 50%, while keeping humans in the oversight loop.

Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

6 pts
  • −The guided pace is clearly slowing after the fiscal 2026 surge; following 17% revenue growth, management expects growth of only between 5% and 6% in fiscal 2027. Even Management Solutions, which grew 20% in fiscal 2026 with support from Paycor, is guided to growth of between 5% and 6%.
  • −Client count growth remains weak, as management described the client base in fiscal 2026 as nearly stable and expects only stability or slight improvement within targeted client sizes in fiscal 2027. Growth therefore depends heavily on pricing and higher spending per client, increasing the sensitivity of results to the company's ability to cross-sell and retain clients.
  • −Interest on client funds represents an expected headwind; management estimated that it would decline by approximately 4% to 5% in fiscal 2027 due to the full-year effect of previous interest rate cuts and the expiration of nonrecurring repositioning gains. The company expects interest revenue of between $195 million and $205 million, limiting the benefit to results from improvements in operating products.
  • −The insurance agency remains a headwind for the Professional Employer Organization and Insurance Solutions category, despite better trends emerging in the second half of fiscal 2026. PEO comparisons also become more difficult in the second half of fiscal 2027, according to management, which could pressure the guided growth rate for the category of between 6% and 7%.
  • −Management described the competitive environment as highly competitive with no material change, while Paychex is relying on advisory services, compliance, and proprietary data to differentiate WISE from competing tools. The economics of marketing solutions independent of payroll are still being determined, and management therefore did not provide specific figures for the revenue size of this pathway or the timing of its material contribution.
  • −Total borrowings were approximately $4.6 billion at the end of fiscal 2026, compared with $1.2 billion in cash, restricted cash, and corporate investments, making integration execution and cash generation important following the Paycor acquisition. Insider activity during the three months ended July 20, 2026, also recorded four sales with no purchases and net sales of $3.7 million, but this is a weak standalone trading signal because insider sales may be prearranged unless stated otherwise.
Why is Paychex expanding into products independent of payroll?

During fiscal 2026, Paychex completed an update of the operating layer and separated the tax engine and payment orchestration into more flexible components. This allows a client to retain an insurance or retirement product even if it leaves the human capital management platform, and it also allows compliance tools or benefits to be sold without first winning the payroll contract. Perks provides early evidence of this pathway; more than 400,000 unique employees have purchased from it, and the company is expanding its availability to more than 2.5 million employees on Paycor.

What are the main reasons for caution regarding Paychex's growth?

The targeted growth rate for fiscal 2027 declined to 5%–6% after revenue grew 17% in fiscal 2026. Management expects interest on client funds to decline by approximately 4%–5%, while the insurance agency remains a headwind for the PEO and Insurance category. Client count is also nearly stable, making the achievement of guidance more dependent on pricing, cross-selling, and retention than on expansion of the client base.

How did Paychex allocate capital in fiscal 2026?

Operating cash flow reached $2.6 billion in fiscal 2026, an increase of 35%, and free cash flow reached $2.3 billion, up 36%. The company returned $2.2 billion to shareholders, including $1.6 billion in cash dividends and $600 million through share repurchases. In contrast, total borrowings were approximately $4.6 billion, compared with $1.2 billion in cash, restricted cash, and corporate investments.