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Patria Investments Limited
PAX

PAX Patria Investments Ltd

Patria Investments Ltd · NASDAQ
Market Closed
10.62
▼ ⁦-1.21%⁩ (-0.13)
Market Cap$1.7B
Beta0.75
52w Low52w High
10.5517.80
Last Week
⁦-5.60%⁩
Last Month
⁦-7.89%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦-8.84%⁩
Last Year
⁦-21.16%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall33
Weak — below market medianContrarianF 6/8Better than 33% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
64
23.6x▼17.8xAround median
▸
Growth
55
9.5%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
67
——Top tier
▸
Safety
44
——Around median
▸
Capital Return
10
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
15
-16.3%▼2.9%Bottom tier
▸
Sentiment
77
33Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$11
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$14
⁦+32%⁩
See it clearly undervalued
Range ⁦$10–$18⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$14.00
⁦+31.8%⁩
Current Price $10.62·Median $14.00
Low
$10.00
High
$18.00
Current price
$10.62
Average target
$14.00
Street summary

A clear decline in PAX targets and growing caution

Bearish tilt

Patria Investments’ consensus price target fell from 18 to 14 over the past 7 and 30 days, a decline of 4 or 22.22%, despite the number of analysts remaining at 3. The target range between 10 and 18 reflects continued divergence, while the current price stands at 10.75; consensus is still above the price, but the target level itself has become less optimistic.

As of 2026-09-10
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦-22.2%⁩
Average rating
★ 3.57
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
43%
Mixed
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 2↓
Target dispersion
75%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
1
2
4
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months3.57 → 3.57
Recent analyst moves
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-09
    Bank of America Securities
    Underperform
  • ⬇ Downgrade2026-09-09
    Citigroup
    Underperform
  • = Reiterate2026-04-24
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy· $18.00
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    23.58x
    3.16x25.26x
    Near median
  • Forward P/E
    7.21x
    2.76x22.06x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    18.87x
    3.07x24.55x
    Near median
  • FCF Yield
    15.2%
    -19.9%19.1%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    9.5%
    -36.3%104.2%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    -14.9%
    -99.4%194.2%
    Below average
  • Gross Margin
    98.5%
    23.5%98.3%
    Exceptional
  • ROIC
    12.2%
    -36.5%24.6%
    Strong
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    4.39x
    0.25x7.31x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-07-31 data

Company Overview

Patria Investments operates a diversified alternative investment platform focused on Latin America, spanning credit, infrastructure, real estate, public equities, private equity, and GPMS global private markets solutions. The revenue model relies primarily on management fees linked to fee-earning assets, alongside performance, incentive, and structuring fees; about 70% of fee-earning assets are calculated based on the market value of traded securities, while about 30% consists of capital drawdown funds whose fees are generally charged on invested cost. In fiscal year 2023, revenue was $374.2 million, net income was $75.7 million, and earnings per share were $0.46696.

In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, fee revenue was $105.8 million, up 30% year over year and 14% quarter over quarter, including $1.5 million in catch-up fees related to the final close of SOF V. Fee-related earnings were $57.1 million, growing 24% year over year and 13% quarter over quarter, while the margin was 54% compared with 54.6% in the previous quarter. Distributable earnings reached $50.7 million, or $0.32 per share, up 31% year over year and 19% quarter over quarter on a per-share basis, with no contribution from performance earnings during the quarter.

Fee-earning assets reached $48.9 billion in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, up 32% year over year and 7% quarter over quarter, driven by organic inflows, investment performance, and the closing of three acquisitions. The asset base has a long duration, with about 90% held in vehicles with limited or no redemption rights, while permanent assets represent approximately $11 billion, or 22% of the total. Pending assets that have not yet begun generating fees totaled $4 billion, up nearly 20% quarter over quarter, giving the company a visible path to fee growth as capital is deployed.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Patria raised about $2.3 billion in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, bringing the fiscal year-to-date total to $4.5 billion; it is therefore on track to exceed its fiscal year 2026 target of $7 billion and potentially the fiscal year 2025 record of $7.7 billion.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • The company secured a $1 billion commitment from an existing sovereign wealth fund client through a multi-asset separate account and expects to deploy it primarily in credit and infrastructure over four to six quarters. Infrastructure activities also added $5 million in net annual recurring revenue during the first half of fiscal year 2026, with about another $1 billion in deployable pending assets.
  • The credit business raised more than $650 million during Q2 of fiscal year 2026 and about $1.6 billion fiscal year to date, while Solis raised more than $500 million since the acquisition closed at the beginning of the year. The Latin American high-yield credit strategy, which manages more than $5.5 billion in fee-earning assets, has generated an annualized net U.S. dollar return of 11% since its inception 26 years ago, outperforming its benchmark by more than 360 basis points.
  • SOF V closed with commitments of $676 million, exceeding its original target of $500 million by about 35%. More than 50% of commitments came from North America and about 40% from Europe, while returning investors accounted for approximately 36%, demonstrating the expansion of the fundraising base across regions and clients.
  • The company is targeting fee-related earnings of between $225 million and $245 million, or $1.42 to $1.54 per share, in fiscal year 2026, compared with $202.5 million in fiscal year 2025. It also maintained its fiscal year 2027 target of $260 million to $290 million, or $1.60 to $1.80 per share, while targeting a margin of between 58% and 60% in fiscal year 2027 and beyond.
  • The quarterly distribution announced in August 2026 increased by 8.3% and had coverage of 196% after distributable earnings grew 31% year over year in Q2 of fiscal year 2026. This is also supported by insider activity rated as a strong buy, with net purchases of $2.1 million over three months and nine purchases versus one sale through August 6, 2026.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The mix of long-duration assets provides a degree of revenue visibility because about 90% of fee-earning assets are subject to limited or no redemption rights, while permanent assets total about $11 billion and pending assets total $4 billion.
    • +The fundraising pace is supported by specific investment performance; more than 85% of measured fee-earning assets are invested in funds that have matched or outperformed their benchmarks since inception, while the three most recent active infrastructure fund vintages have collectively outperformed their benchmark by more than 750 basis points.
    • +Growth is now distributed across credit, infrastructure, GPMS, and separate accounts rather than relying solely on private equity; three acquisitions, organic inflows, and positive investment performance increased fee-earning assets by 32% year over year to $48.9 billion in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
    • +The 31% year-over-year growth in distributable earnings and the 8.3% increase in distributions, with coverage of 196%, provide direct support for shareholder returns, while the company aims to keep its share count between 158 million and 160 million shares over the long term.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Older private equity vintages are experiencing tangible performance weakness; the valuations of funds IV and V were reduced in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 following delayed exits, higher interest rates in Brazil, and sector-specific shocks, while the valuation of a specific company within fund VI was also reduced. Fund IV has not generated management fees for two years, and funds IV and V have not accrued performance fees since Q4 of fiscal year 2025.
    • −Management lowered its fiscal year 2026 fee-related earnings margin outlook to slightly below the targeted range of 58% to 60%, after the margin came in at 54% in Q2 versus 54.6% in the previous quarter. This coincided with a 16% quarter-over-quarter increase in expenses, foreign exchange effects, annual promotions, and continued investment in the platform.
    • −Acquisitions add execution risk before economies of scale are realized; the acquired companies operated at fee-related earnings margins of about 30% compared with Patria's targeted range of 58% to 60%. Transaction and restructuring costs totaled about $11 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and the company expects them to remain between $7 million and $8 million in each of Q3 and Q4 of fiscal year 2026 before declining significantly in fiscal year 2027.
    • −About 70% of fee-earning assets are linked to the market value of traded securities, particularly in credit, real estate, and public equities; therefore, positive investment performance translates into revenue growth, but market declines can reduce the fee base in the same way. This increases revenue sensitivity to valuation movements compared with assets on which fees are charged based on invested cost.
    • −Higher interest rates in Brazil have been associated with longer exit periods for older private equity investments and were among the reasons for reducing the valuations of funds IV and V. Although the companies in funds VI and VII carry little or no debt and their average earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization grew by about 10.5% over two years, a persistently high interest-rate environment could remain an obstacle to exits and converting valuations into liquidity.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus rates PAX as a buy, with a consensus target of $18 and no difference between the highest and lowest estimates, compared with a 52-week range of $10.55 to $17.80. The target is slightly above the top of the annual range, but the absence of any difference among analyst estimates makes the consensus less representative of the range of scenarios, particularly given the reduced fiscal year 2026 margin outlook and weakness in some older private equity funds. Conversely, the positive valuation is supported by 32% year-over-year growth in fee-earning assets, the continued fiscal year 2026 fee-related earnings target of between $225 million and $245 million, and the 8.3% increase in distributions.

    BuyAnalyst target: $18(+69.5%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-09-01; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What is driving Patria Investments' growth in fiscal year 2026?

    Patria raised about $4.5 billion during the first half of fiscal year 2026, compared with an annual target of $7 billion and a record of $7.7 billion in fiscal year 2025. This included a $1 billion commitment from an existing sovereign wealth fund, in addition to $1.6 billion raised in credit fiscal year to date. Fee-earning assets increased to $48.9 billion, up 32% year over year, driven by organic inflows, investment performance, and three acquisitions.

    Is Patria still committed to its fiscal year 2026 earnings guidance?

    Management maintained its fiscal year 2026 fee-related earnings target of between $225 million and $245 million, or between $1.42 and $1.54 per share. These earnings totaled $57.1 million in Q2 and $108 million fiscal year to date. However, it expects the fiscal year 2026 margin to come in slightly below the 58% to 60% range before returning to target that range in fiscal year 2027 and beyond.

    How important are SOF V and the WP Global Partners acquisition to PAX's growth?

    SOF V closed at $676 million, exceeding its original target of $500 million by about 35%. More than half of the commitments came from North America and about 40% from Europe, while returning investors accounted for approximately 36%. The acquisition of WP Global Partners closed on April 1, 2026, after which its team was integrated into the New York office to support the U.S. lower middle market private equity solutions platform.

    What risks are associated with Patria's older private equity funds?

    The company reduced the valuations of funds IV and V in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 because of weak performance, longer exit periods in a high-interest-rate environment in Brazil, and shocks specific to certain sectors. Together, the two funds represent less than $2 billion in assets under management and less than $1.3 billion in fee-earning assets. Fund IV has not generated management fees for two years, and funds IV and V have not accrued performance fees since Q4 of fiscal year 2025, so the valuation reductions did not change fee-related earnings guidance.

    How does asset quality support Patria's distributions?

    About 90% of fee-earning assets are held in vehicles with limited or no redemption rights, while permanent assets total about $11 billion and represent approximately 22% of the total. Pending assets also exceeded $4 billion in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, providing a potential future fee base as they are deployed. In August 2026, the company increased its quarterly distribution by 8.3%, with coverage of 196%, after distributable earnings grew 31% year over year.

    What do Patria's liquidity and capital commitments look like?

    The company completed a $350 million notes issuance in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 and used part of the proceeds to repay its credit facility while retaining liquidity for acquisitions, share repurchases, and growth. It repurchased 1.5 million shares through a total return swap facility at a cost of $18.3 million and is also working to increase another facility to 2.8 million shares at a cost of approximately $31 million. It also recorded a gross accounting obligation related to the potential purchase of the remaining 49% minority stake in Solis, while management maintains that expected cash and the undrawn credit facility are sufficient to cover obligations, distributions, and investment.

  • −Patria issued $350 million in notes in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, and the related interest expense increased, while total return swap facilities are associated with the repurchase of 1.5 million shares at a cost of $18.3 million and a plan to increase another facility to 2.8 million shares at a cost of approximately $31 million. In addition, a potential gross obligation was recorded to purchase the remaining 49% minority stake in Solis, adding future capital commitments despite management's assurance that liquidity is available.