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Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.
PARR

PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc.

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. · NYSE
Market Closed
84.65
▲ ⁦+1.27%⁩ (+1.06)
Market Cap$4.2B
Beta0.77
52w Low52w High
32.2487.03
Last Week
⁦+5.60%⁩
Last Month
⁦+27.70%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+50.73%⁩
Last Year
⁦+147.73%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall98
Excellent — top fifth of the marketSuper StockF 7/9SafeBetter than 98% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
96
5.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
52
13.2%▲7.1%Around median
▸
Quality
67
30.9%▲4.5%Top tier
▸
Safety
82
0.5x▲2.6xTop tier
▸
Capital Return
71
—2.12%Top tier
▸
Momentum
99
113.8%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
34
4▲3Bottom tier
Fair Value
Current price$85
Analyst target · 3 analysts
$85
⁦+0%⁩
See it fairly priced
Range ⁦$65–$92⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
$130
⁦+53%⁩
Sees it clearly undervalued
⁦7.9⁩% discount · ⁦0⁩% growth
Bottom lineThe two methods disagree — estimate range ⁦$85–$130⁩.

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 3 analysts setting price target
$79.80
⁦-5.7%⁩
Current Price $84.65·Median $85.00
Low
$65.00
High
$92.00
Current price
$84.65
Average target
$79.80
Street summary

Par Pacific (PARR) Price Target Analysis

The analyst consensus has seen a slight increase in the price target of 1.27% over the past thirty days, reaching 79.8, a level slightly below the current stock price of 80.16. The significant variance between the high (92) and the low (65) reflects uncertainty regarding the fair valuation, despite forecasts remaining unchanged over the last week.

As of 2026-09-02
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.14
Buy
Analyst coverage
7
Buy conviction
86%
High
Rating activity · 30d
0↑ · 0↓
Target dispersion
32%
Wide
Analyst ratings over time7 analysts rating
2
4
1
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.14
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-08-26
    UBS
    Neutral
  • = Reiterate2026-07-23
    Goldman Sachs
    Buy
  • = Reiterate2026-07-21
    TD Cowen
    Buy
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    4.98x
    3.56x28.47x
    Very cheap
  • Forward P/E
    7.89x
    3.36x26.89x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    4.01x
    2.12x16.98x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    9.7%
    -21.0%15.7%
    Strong
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    13.2%
    -19.7%63.1%
    Near median
  • EPS Growth YoY
    6904.0%
    -141.8%256.7%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    22.7%
    7.8%72.1%
    Below average
  • ROIC
    30.9%
    -12.7%20.6%
    Exceptional
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    0.49x
    0.40x3.19x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    4.37
    -1.814.34
    Exceptional
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-08-05 data

Company Overview

Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. is an energy company that combines oil refining, logistics, retail fuel sales, and renewable fuels. In Q2 of fiscal year 2026, the refining segment generated most of the adjusted earnings, recording adjusted EBITDA of $552 million, compared with $30 million for logistics and $17 million for retail; the company also began its first commercial sales of renewable diesel from its Hawaii project, although volumes remain limited at this early stage of the launch.

Revenue for Q2 of fiscal year 2026 reached approximately $3.0 billion according to EDGAR data, compared with $1.8 billion in Q1 of fiscal year 2026. Net income was $462.1 million and earnings per share according to EDGAR were approximately $9.35, while the company reported adjusted net income of $499 million, earnings per share of $10.10, and adjusted EBITDA of $571 million. The surge primarily reflects improved refining economics, as the combined refining index reached approximately $33 per barrel, compared with an average of $12.40 per barrel in fiscal year 2025, and the refining margin capture rate reached 125%, or 112% after normalizing the impact of the pricing lag in Hawaii and the FIFO impact in Wyoming.

Operationally, Washington recorded quarterly production of 41.2 thousand barrels per day and utilization of 98.1%, while conventional Hawaii production reached 73.2 thousand barrels per day, Montana approximately 53 thousand, and Wyoming approximately 14 thousand during Q2 of fiscal year 2026. In retail, same-store fuel volumes declined 0.8% year over year, but in-store sales increased 1%, and the segment's adjusted EBITDA improved to $17 million from $15 million in the previous quarter due to the partial recovery in fuel margins and growth in foodservice sales.

What's Driving the Stock

  • The combined refining index reached approximately $33 per barrel in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, an increase of approximately $14 from the previous quarter, lifting the refining segment's adjusted EBITDA to $552 million from $69 million and driving the group's adjusted EBITDA to $571 million.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Par Pacific's refineries achieved strong margin capture rates of 124% in Hawaii, 144% in Montana, 118% in Wyoming, and 100% in Washington; even after excluding the pricing lag benefit in Hawaii and the FIFO impact in Wyoming, the normalized combined capture rate was 112%.
  • Washington production reached a record 41.2 thousand barrels per day with 98.1% utilization, while Montana produced approximately 62 thousand barrels per day in May and June 2026 at a cost of $7.56 per barrel following the completion of the scheduled April turnaround.
  • Hawaii Renewables increased renewable diesel production to approximately 3 thousand barrels per day in June 2026 and completed its first commercial sales during Q2 of fiscal year 2026; management expects a gradual increase in third-party sales and earnings contribution after the units restart following Hawaii maintenance.
  • The company reduced net debt by more than $220 million during Q2 of fiscal year 2026 and ended the period with liquidity of approximately $1.4 billion and cash of $185 million, supporting the funding of internal refining and logistics projects from which management targets unlevered returns in the low 20% range.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +Par Pacific demonstrated its ability to convert wider refining margins into strong cash earnings, generating $614 million of operating cash before working capital outflows of $312 million and deferred turnaround costs of $19 million in Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
    • +Asset diversification across Hawaii, Washington, Wyoming, and Montana provides flexibility in crude procurement and product distribution, as reflected in a combined capture rate of 125% and the record performance of the Washington refinery during Q2 of fiscal year 2026.
    • +The renewable diesel project in Hawaii represents a potential additional source of earnings; production reached approximately 3 thousand barrels per day in June 2026 and the first commercial sales began, with management expecting third-party sales volumes to increase gradually after the restart.
    • +The financial position improved significantly after reducing total term debt by more than $130 million, reducing ABL facility borrowings by $78 million, and reducing net debt by more than $220 million during Q2 of fiscal year 2026, while continuing share repurchases of approximately $48 million from the beginning of fiscal year 2026 through the end of the second quarter.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Earnings depend heavily on volatile refining margins; the combined refining index surged to approximately $33 per barrel in Q2 of fiscal year 2026 from an average of $12.40 in fiscal year 2025, while the July 2026 index was approximately $31.34, about $1.60 per barrel below the second-quarter average, highlighting the sensitivity of results to narrowing product spreads.
    • −Management projected clear pressure on Hawaii in Q3 of fiscal year 2026 due to the turnaround, guiding conventional crude throughput to approximately 59.1 thousand barrels per day and renewable production to between 1.5 and 2.0 thousand barrels per day, while expecting margin capture to fall below the normal range of 100% to 110% because of increased product imports and lower production.
    • −Cash flows face significant volatility from working capital and crude costs; Q2 of fiscal year 2026 recorded working capital outflows of $312 million, approximately half of which was related to building Hawaii product inventories, while Q3 guidance for the Hawaii crude cost differential ranged from $11.50 to $13.50 per barrel due to higher freight costs and backwardation.
    • −The value of small refinery exemptions is tied to an unresolved regulatory decision; the company estimated the fiscal year 2025 RVO obligation for its mainland refineries at approximately 140 million RIN units, and the benefit of full exemptions could reach approximately $300 million at the cited RIN prices, or half that amount for partial exemptions, but management declined to provide a decision timeline due to uncertainty.
    • −Core retail indicators were mixed in Q2 of fiscal year 2026, as same-store fuel volumes declined 0.8% year over year despite a 1% increase in in-store sales, making foodservice growth and a recovery in fuel margins necessary to offset volume weakness.
    • −Insiders recorded nine sales and no purchases during the three months ending with the latest transaction on August 18, 2026, for net sales of $9.7 million; this is a weak trading signal on its own because insider sales may be prearranged, and the provided context does not explain the reasons for these transactions.

    Valuation

    The analyst consensus rates PARR as a “Buy,” with an average price target of $79.8 and a wide range between $65 and $92; the average is approximately 8% below the 52-week range high of $87.03, while the highest target exceeds that high. The 52-week range extends from $32.24 to $87.03, and no published price-to-earnings ratio is available in the provided data, so the stock's valuation depends more on the sustainability of the surge in refining earnings than on a fixed multiple, particularly given the expected pressure from Hawaii maintenance and margin volatility following the exceptional Q2 fiscal year 2026 results.

    BuyAnalyst target: $79.8(-5.7%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What caused the significant surge in PARR's earnings in Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

    The combined refining index rose to approximately $33 per barrel, an increase of approximately $14 from Q1 of fiscal year 2026, amid disruptions to crude oil and refined product supplies. As a result, the refining segment's adjusted EBITDA surged to $552 million from $69 million in the previous quarter, and the group's adjusted EBITDA reached $571 million. The refining capture rate also reached 125%, or 112% after normalizing the pricing lag benefit in Hawaii and the FIFO impact in Wyoming, and the company recorded adjusted earnings per share of $10.10.

    Are the Q2 fiscal year 2026 earnings sustainable?

    Management stated that global refined product inventories remained limited and that structural factors supporting margins persisted as of August 5, 2026, but the results benefited from an exceptional environment in which the refining index reached approximately $33 per barrel. In July 2026, the combined index declined to $31.34 per barrel, approximately $1.60 below the second-quarter average. The financial effects of the Hawaii turnaround will also be concentrated in Q3 of fiscal year 2026, meaning that the second-quarter earnings alone do not provide a stable basis for forecasts.

    What is the impact of the Hawaii refinery turnaround in Q3 of fiscal year 2026?

    The turnaround began in late June 2026, and the main units had either safely restarted or were nearing completion of the restart as of August 5, 2026, with cost and timing close to target. Management expects conventional Hawaii production of approximately 59.1 thousand barrels per day and renewable production of between 1.5 and 2.0 thousand barrels per day during Q3 of fiscal year 2026. It also expects the cost of imported barrels and lower production to cause Hawaii margin capture to fall below the normal range of 100% to 110%.

    How important is the renewable fuel project in Hawaii to Par Pacific?

    Renewable diesel production increased gradually to approximately 3 thousand barrels per day in June 2026 before the plant's turnaround began. The company completed its first commercial sales of renewable diesel during Q2 of fiscal year 2026, but described the volumes as small and reflective of the early stage of the launch. After the units restart, management expects a gradual increase in third-party sales and earnings contribution, while Q3 fiscal year 2026 production guidance ranges between 1.5 and 2.0 thousand barrels per day.

    What do PARR's liquidity and debt look like after Q2 of fiscal year 2026?

    Par Pacific ended the quarter with total liquidity of approximately $1.4 billion and cash of $185 million. During the period, it issued $500 million of senior unsecured notes, reduced total term debt by more than $130 million and ABL borrowings by $78 million, resulting in a net debt reduction of more than $220 million. It also limited share repurchases during the volatility in favor of debt reduction, with cumulative purchases reaching approximately $48 million from the beginning of fiscal year 2026 through the end of the second quarter.

    How large is the potential benefit from Par Pacific's small refinery exemptions?

    Management estimated the fiscal year 2025 RVO obligation for its mainland refineries at approximately 140 million RIN units. At the RIN prices cited in the August 5, 2026 call, the benefit of full exemptions for the three refineries could reach approximately $300 million, while the benefit of partial exemptions could be half that amount. However, management emphasized that providing a timeline for the decision would be mere speculation, so neither amount should be treated as a realized benefit.