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Pampa Energía S.A.
PAM

PAM Pampa Energía S.A.

Pampa Energía S.A. · NYSE
Market Closed
86.53
▼ ⁦-2.17%⁩ (-1.92)
Market Cap$4.8B
Beta-0.22
52w Low52w High
54.9594.50
Last Week
⁦+2.91%⁩
Last Month
⁦+4.44%⁩
Last 3 Months
⁦+6.72%⁩
Last Year
⁦+22.76%⁩
EL7 Factor Analysis
How we score this
Overall80
Strong — clearly above market medianTurnaroundF 6/9Better than 80% of Market stocks, per EL7's model
FactorScoreDistributionValueAvgRank
▸
Valuation
80
8.0x▲17.8xTop tier
▸
Growth
86
28.9%▲7.1%Top tier
▸
Quality
42
4.9%▲4.5%Around median
▸
Safety
55
1.4x▲2.6xAround median
▸
Capital Return
11
—2.12%Bottom tier
▸
Momentum
72
17.7%▲2.9%Top tier
▸
Sentiment
90
5▲3Top tier
Fair Value
Low confidenceCurrent price$87
Analyst target · 2 analysts
$97
⁦+12%⁩
See it undervalued
Range ⁦$97–$97⁩
vs
DCF (estimate)
N/A (negative FCF)

Estimates — analyst targets and a simplified DCF, not investment advice.

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Annual plan
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Monthly plan
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Analyst Consensus

This section combines price targets, revision history, analyst coverage changes, and an AI summary of what changed on the Street.

Price Target· 2 analysts setting price target
$97.00
⁦+12.1%⁩
Current Price $86.53·Median $97.00
Low
$97.00
High
$97.00
Street summary

Forecast Stability Analysis for Pampa Energía (PAM)

Pampa Energía stock shows a state of complete stability in analyst estimates during recent periods (1, 7, and 30 days), as the consensus target price settled at 97 dollars. This consistency reflects the absence of any recent revisions by analysts covering the stock, with zero dispersion in forecasts, where the high, low, and average coincide at the same value, indicating a unified but limited-scope vision given the participation of only two analysts in the current valuation.

As of 2026-05-22
Revisions momentum · 30d
⁦0.0%⁩
Average rating
★ 4.00
Buy
Analyst coverage
11
Buy conviction
82%
High
Target dispersion
0%
Analyst ratings over time11 analysts rating
2
7
2
Strong BuyBuyHoldSellStrong Sell
Rating trend — last 12 months4.00 → 4.00
Recent analyst moves
  • = Reiterate2026-03-12
    HSBC
    —· $97.00
  • ⬆ Upgrade2025-11-03
    Citigroup
    NeutralBuy
  • = Reiterate2025-05-19
    Citigroup
    Neutral
Premium content
Key Financials

Ten ratios that matter, each compared against its sector median and average — so you can see whether a number is rich or cheap relative to peers in the same sector.

StockSector medianSector averagetypical sector range
MetricValuePosition within sectorVerdict
  • P/E (TTM)
    8.00x
    4.50x36.01x
    Cheap
  • Forward P/E
    8.34x
    4.35x34.77x
    Very cheap
  • EV / EBITDA
    5.24x
    3.07x24.54x
    Very cheap
  • FCF Yield
    -10.4%
    -17.6%10.2%
    Below average
  • Revenue Growth YoY
    28.9%
    -10.5%25.3%
    Exceptional
  • EPS Growth YoY
    523.9%
    -53.8%122.0%
    Exceptional
  • Gross Margin
    33.6%
    9.8%69.4%
    Near median
  • ROIC
    4.9%
    -2.0%11.4%
    Above average
  • Net Debt / EBITDA
    1.36x
    1.28x10.25x
    Low debt
  • Dividend Yield
    —
    —
  • Payout Ratio
    —
    —
  • Altman Z-Score
    —
    —
Financial Analysis
|

Stock Analysis

AI-generated
Based on 2026-05-09 data

Company Overview

Pampa Energía S.A. operates across Argentina's energy value chain, combining oil and gas production with power generation, allowing it to sell gas to industrial customers, export it to Chile, and use a portion of it in its own thermal power plants. In Q1 FY2026, intersegment consumption rose to 32% of gas sales from 2% a year earlier, while combined-cycle units not tied to power purchase agreements benefited from improved generation margins in the spot market.

Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $325 million in Q1 FY2026, up 48% year over year and 41% quarter over quarter. The oil and gas segment generated $104 million, or 2.5 times its level a year earlier, while the power generation segment recorded $144 million, an 11% annual increase; Rincón de Aranda alone contributed about 17% of the company's total adjusted operating earnings and 54% of the oil and gas segment's earnings.

Average production exceeded 100 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day in Q1 FY2026, with oil production reaching 19,500 barrels per day and oil accounting for 19% of the production mix. For FY2024, revenue reached $1.9 billion, gross profit was $597 million, and net income was $619 million, compared with revenue of $1.7 billion and net income of $305 million in FY2023; however, gross profit declined from $625 million despite revenue growth.

What's Driving the Stock

  • Oil production increased sixfold year over year to 19,500 barrels per day in Q1 FY2026, while Rincón de Aranda production reached about 25 thousand barrels per day on May 9, 2026, benefiting from the commissioning of new wells and an improvement in drilling speed from 200 to nearly 330 meters per day.
  • The company aims to connect 20 additional wells at Rincón de Aranda during FY2026 and reach 28 thousand barrels per day in mid-2026, then achieve a stable production level of 45 thousand barrels per day after the central processing facility and the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur pipeline become operational.
Earnings callEDGAR filings30-day newsInsider activity

Automated analysis for informational purposes only — not investment advice.

  • Gas production grew 17% year over year and 28% quarter over quarter to about 14 million cubic meters per day in Q1 FY2026, while exports to Chile rose 65% to 1.5 million cubic meters per day, and management expected on May 9, 2026, that this level would continue throughout the remainder of FY2026.
  • Pampa reserved transportation capacity of 3.2 million cubic meters of gas per day in the Perito Moreno pipeline expansion under a 35-year contract, and management estimated on May 9, 2026, that the potential impact on power generation earnings would be about $100 million, plus approximately $50–60 million for the exploration and production segment, with the actual outcome depending on fuel prices and winter 2027 conditions.
  • The August 11, 2026 report showed that adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for Q2 FY2026 rose 75% year over year to $415 million, driven by power generation and the expansion of Rincón de Aranda, while the company is also planning the Fértil Pampa urea production project at an estimated cost of $2.7 billion.
  • Buying & Selling Case

    ▲ Buying Case4 pts

    • +The integration of gas and power generation provides company-specific operating leverage; self-supplied gas to the Loma de la Lata and Genelba plants supported a 41% quarter-over-quarter increase in adjusted operating earnings in Q1 FY2026, with efficient units benefiting from the new marginal pricing system.
    • +The economics of Rincón de Aranda improved as production increased and lifting costs declined; oil lifting costs fell from $41 per barrel in Q1 FY2025 to less than $10 in Q1 FY2026, while total lifting costs decreased 11% year over year to $6.1 per barrel of oil equivalent.
    • +Rincón de Aranda has an inventory of more than 300 wells, and the processing facility was designed to support a production level of 45 thousand barrels per day for about 15 years, while development of the northern area could extend the production plateau by about 6 to 8 years.
    • +Pampa's net income nearly doubled from $305 million in FY2023 to $619 million in FY2024, alongside an increase in revenue from $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion, followed by continued operating momentum as adjusted operating earnings grew in Q1 and Q2 FY2026.

    ▼ Selling Case6 pts

    • −Capital spending and liquidity represent the most visible financial pressure; free cash flow was negative $404 million in Q1 FY2026, and capital expenditures reached $242 million, including $163 million at Rincón de Aranda, while the FY2026 budget estimate indicated negative free cash flow of about $400 million.
    • −Net debt increased to $1.2 billion at the end of March 2026, equivalent to 1.5 times adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization for the last 12 months, and the company may need to increase gross debt to finance elevated spending and payments of about $330 million, including value-added tax, for the TGS pipeline expansion.
    • −The project portfolio entails significant execution and financing risks; the full development cost of Rincón de Aranda was estimated at about $4.5 billion, while the planned cost of the Fértil Pampa project is about $2.7 billion, and the company had not made a final investment decision on the urea project as of the May 9, 2026 call.
    • −Part of the growth remains dependent on approvals and infrastructure; the application to include Rincón de Aranda in the RIGI program was still pending on May 9, 2026, the central processing facility is scheduled to become operational in March 2027, and the impact of the Perito Moreno expansion depends on gas and fuel prices and winter 2027 conditions.
    • −The expiration of certain power purchase agreements could pressure power generation earnings; the company stated on May 9, 2026, that contracts collectively representing about 400 megawatts and approximately $100 million of adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization would begin expiring, with 75 megawatts in July 2026 and about 300 megawatts in 2027, although it believes regulatory liberalization could make the impact more gradual.
    • −Oil hedging limited the benefit from higher prices in Q1 FY2026; the realized price was $58 per barrel, 15% lower year over year, and the company estimated that the absence of hedging would have added about $21 million to revenue, with the average Brent crude hedge remaining at $65 through April 2027.

    Valuation

    The analysts' consensus target is $97, slightly above the 52-week range high of $94.5, while the range low is $54.95, and the consensus recommendation is “Buy,” with both the highest and lowest targets at $97. No price-to-earnings ratio is available in the data, so the stock's valuation rests on continued growth from Rincón de Aranda and power generation on one hand, versus negative free cash flow, rising financing requirements, and project execution risks on the other.

    BuyAnalyst target: $97(+12.1%)

    Figures in the text are as of 2026-08-31; the live price is shown at the top of the page.

    FAQ

    What drove PAM's earnings growth in Q1 FY2026?

    Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization reached $325 million, up 48% year over year and 41% quarter over quarter. Growth came mainly from the expansion of Rincón de Aranda, higher gas production, and improved spot generation margins at combined-cycle plants. The oil and gas segment generated $104 million, while power generation generated $144 million. Rincón de Aranda alone contributed 17% of the company's total adjusted operating earnings.

    How important is Rincón de Aranda to Pampa Energía's growth story?

    The field's average production reached 18,200 barrels per day across 43 producing wells in Q1 FY2026, then rose to about 25 thousand barrels per day on May 9, 2026. The company targets 28 thousand barrels per day in mid-2026 and a stable level of 45 thousand barrels per day after the infrastructure is completed. The drilling inventory exceeds 300 wells, and the processing facility was designed to support a level of 45 thousand barrels per day for about 15 years. Oil lifting costs also declined to less than $10 per barrel from $41 a year earlier.

    Has Pampa Energía made a final decision on the Fértil Pampa urea project?

    As of the May 9, 2026 call, management explicitly stated that a final investment decision had not been made. The company was working on the plant's engineering and negotiating with engineering, procurement, and construction providers, as well as environmental permits and project financing, while the August 11, 2026 report described the project as a $2.7 billion plan. The company envisions a plant with annual capacity of 2 million tons and sales of nearly $1 billion at normalized historical prices. The concept is based on using Pampa's gas and electricity reserves and serving domestic demand and neighboring export markets.

    What do PAM's liquidity and debt look like after the increase in investment?

    The company ended Q1 FY2026 with cash and cash equivalents of $677 million, down $414 million from the end of FY2025. Gross debt was approximately $1.9 billion and net debt was $1.2 billion, raising net leverage to 1.5 times earnings for the last 12 months. Free cash flow recorded a deficit of $404 million due to oil-hedging collateral, intensive spending at Rincón de Aranda, and payments for prior capital expenditures. In April 2026, the company issued $200 million of three-year bonds at a fixed interest rate of 5.49%.

    How does oil hedging affect Pampa Energía's results?

    The realized oil price was $58 per barrel in Q1 FY2026, down 15% year over year because of hedging. The company said the price without hedging would have exceeded $69 per barrel, which would have added about $21 million to revenue. The average hedge linked to Brent crude through April 2027 was $65, and the policy was intended to stabilize returns during the expansion phase of Rincón de Aranda. As production grows, management stated on May 9, 2026, that it intends to gradually reduce the hedged volume from 100% to about 50%.